저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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미국 재정적자가 통제 불능 수준으로 보이며 언제 문제될지는 누구도 알 수 없다. 고금리 환경에서 레버리지 기업의 차환 부담이 커져 부실 투자 기회가 늘고 있다. 사모펀드와 상업용 부동산(특히 리테일·오피스)이 금리 부담의 직격탄을 받을 것이다. 크레딧 온 크레딧 갈등(크레딧 밸런스 공격)이 늘 수 있어 대출기관은 계약서를 면밀히 검토해야 한다. 중소형 지방은행의 부동산 대출 집중이 위험이나 시스템 리스크는 아니고 개별 은행 부실과 정부 구제는 있을 수 있다.
다듬은 글
we are now joined by oak tree Capital Management co-founder and co-chairman Howard marks to talk all about it we've been talking about the fiscal issues right we've been talking about the monetary conundrum that's been happening for now well over a year for the Fed chair if you think about the potential for fiscal to really upend how investors think these days how much is the government debt loads in the US and abroad really changing the calculus well look Tali I think it's unfor forunate that the US behaves like a a country that has a credit card with no credit limit that where the bill never comes I mean nobody can think that's a good idea uh you would think that there has to be a point at which our debt or our deficits become too much uh reckoned as a percentage of GDP usually uh nobody will tell you that point doesn't exist nobody will tell you where it is uh you know so uh there nobody's exercising fiscal discipline in Washington these days um last year we had a uh deficit in the trillions in a period of prosperity not supposed to happen all very unfortunate but a nobody can tell you when it becomes a problem and B nobody can tell you what to do do about it uh you can't eliminate the us from your portfolios uh people who've said to do that in past years are now looking pretty bad yeah I was going to say if you had followed that advice uh you'd be in a world of hurt right now in terms of relative performance and you said that no one can tell you where that point is but that's exactly what I'm going to ask you where do you think that point is is it something that we're approaching if you don't want to exactly pinpoint it I don't want to exactly pinpoint it I want to say that I'm among the people who can't tell you where it is uh you know uh one of the many yeah you know I I think every time I come on the this uh on Bloomberg I I quote Mark Twain who said it it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble it's what you know for certain that just ain't true I certainly don't know I wonder what kind of opportunities you're finding I'm always interested um on the distress side uh about how sort of target-rich the environment is I think that says a lot about our economy all the economic surprises that we see are uh to the downside lately and rates remain high does that make this interesting for you well I think it is interested I mean we we went through a really uh slow period from ' 09 when the FED took the FED funds rate to zero to stimulate the economy to 21 when they started to decided to lift it to fight inflation and in that 13e period there was very little distress because it was a very benign environment for companies uh now as you note interest rates are higher that gives us more of an opportunity and importantly there were a lot of Leverage transactions uh done in the period I described uh where companies were um burdened with capital structures debt structures that did not anticipate a 500 basis point or 400 base Point increase in rates so you know to to put it uh in in short it was it was a great time to be a borrower because rates came down and business was prosperous but right now and I think going into the future uh leveraged companies will not be able to renew their leverage as easily and the cost of doing so will be higher so that gives us uh better opportunities than we've been seeing and um you know uh just to put it in brief for your listeners uh 6 years ago you had an idea you went into the bank you described it they said fine we'll give you $900 million at 5% now it's time to renew your debt you go in you describe it again and they say good we'll give you $500 million at 9% where do you think most of that pain is going to come because there's the private Equity universe that's clearly grappling with that refinancing pain there's the commercial real estate market and Equity investors seem to be ignoring any leverage that might be under the system still what should should they be watching out for well clearly it and now it'll be in highly levered situations and you name two of them private equity and real estate uh leverage the use of debt to amplify your returns it has been the lifeblood of these two asset classes and they've uh done extremely well as a result uh it was it was very very salutary for them but that's where the pain will come in the future uh and uh you know you can't increase a company's Debt Service cost marketly without affecting it its returns and in in in certain sectors of the real estate world uh mainly retail and uh and office uh there are fundamental questions so you put that together you we think you'll see some disruption uh which will give us uh and People Like Us opportunity you know this has been a really tough period for lenders which is what we are and a really tough period for bargain hunters right well I want to talk a bit more about the business of lending and what's going on in the private credit industry of course a month or two ago we saw a plural site backed by Vista basically transfer its assets into a different subsidiary to obtain more financing from its sponsor that's become a little bit of a battlecry you see lenders basically asking for plural site protection right now I won't ask you specifically about what happened with that that episode but how do you see this evolving in the industry do you think that we're going to see more creditor on creditor violence as some have been calling it well you know uh people tend to do what they can to enhance their position financially uh most people will stick to what they can do legally some people will stick to what they can do ethically I don't if there's some question about what that means uh but you you know people if there's an opening people will take it for the most part and there is an opening for what you call creditor UNC creditor violence that is proactive uh proactive efforts to enhance your situation financially at the expense of somebody else and uh so uh the important point is that it's up to lenders to study the documentation well enough to prevent it that's it are you getting are you active in uh office space right now because it seems like the perfect storm for anybody who has um the financing we talked to eall Namar a real estate investor a couple of days ago who is getting like 70% off really big important office buildings in New York the capital of the world like how can that not come back well the question Matt is very simple you're getting let's say you're getting 70 off is that enough and you know the mere fact that the price of something is down doesn't make it a buy it has to be that the price is down more than it should be given the fundamentals and uh you know I think it's going to be up to the experts people who've made their life in that world and with success to make that assessment uh uh you know I think that um if there is a bunch of real estate funds formed this year somebody who puts all their money into office uh and somebody who puts none of their money into office one of them will be the best performer I just don't know which one you know if you have these struggles that are still under the surface we are just about you know 5 days away really from Bank earnings and the question is is we enter this era where they're about to meet new capital rules as well are there still just tremendous stresses under the system that people are not noticing well it's the it's the small to midsize Banks the community and Regional banks that are that are heavily heavily uh weighted toward uh real estate loans the the biggest banks over 250 billion in assets don't have much of a concentration they're not at risk but some of the smaller Banks you know uh I think on average the banks under 250 billion in assets uh uh loans on real estate make up 160% of their regulatory Capital so some of them will find pain especially the ones who lent above average and concentrated in regions that are troubled and so forth so you know uh I don't think it's a systemic risk that's going to put us in the sync but I do think that you'll see some companies in trouble and you know one by one the the authorities may have to bail them out and and may well do so
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