저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
개별주 투자는 기업의 사업을 이해하는 것이 핵심이며, 이해하지 못한 주식은 하락 때 버티지 못한다. 평균 주식은 연중 고저 변동폭이 약 100%에 달하므로 공포로 매도하면 안 된다. 경기침체·조정을 예측하려는 시도는 실제 조정 손실보다 더 큰 손실을 낳는다. 예측 적중률이 50~65%여도 승자 종목이 실패를 상쇄하면 훌륭한 성과를 낼 수 있다. 정보 접근성이 높은 오늘날 기업 이해의 핑계는 없다.
다듬은 글
I thought it would be funny to take some of your legendary quotes and witisms. Um, they've all been attributed to you. You'll tell me if they're not actually you, but um, these have been taken from interviews you've given over the years from the books that you've written, from the things that you've you've written and and published.
I thought it'd be fun to share some of these with the audience. in the audience probably can quote some of these by heart uh and just have you react to them and tell and tell us uh where it came from or what the lesson is behind the thing that you were trying to get across. Um I've got a couple of categories for for these quotes.
I kind of I did a little taxonomy. So the first category involves the risk of investing in stocks and you said the real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. Why is that the key to making money in stocks? Well, more important to that is I have this expression, know what you own.
People I was going to do that one later. I'll cross. But that's the most that's it. That's the most important lesson. Okay? Because you'll get shaken out if the stock goes from 10 to 8. You don't know what they're doing. What are you going to do with it? And uh I was telling you earlier I got a call I did an ad for Vid Elliot with Lily Tomlin.
She's very close with Barbara Streand. So I'm on vacation my wife and two other couples. And my secretary Paul S says Barbara Stryson's called three times. She'd really like to talk to you. She's very nice. And you know I said sure I got some time. So I called him and she says, "I own all these stocks and I'm getting up at 5:00 a.m.
and look at this stuff." And he says, "I never," she said, "I never did drugs. I never did marijuana. I I I'm just can't sleep. What do I do?" I says, "Tell me five things you own." She named five companies. I say, "Okay, what did they do?" She didn't have any idea. He's an incredibly talented person.
She had no idea what those companies did, right? So, what are you going to do if they go down 50%. Yeah. If you don't understand what you own, you're toast. It sounds so obvious um to hear you say it, but it's it's amazing. Uh pe you talk about people spend more time researching a refrigerator they're going to buy than they do a stock they're going to invest part of their life savings.
People are very careful. They spend hours, get 50 bucks off on an airplane flight. They they look at everything, right? and they'll put $10,000 in some crazy stock they heard on the bus, you know, and you know, and they have no idea what they're doing. And some invent this awful term before I got in the business called play the market.
Play the market. You don't like that term. That is a sometimes a noun there, it's a verb. It's a very dangerous verb. Play the market is not what you do. Okay. You buy good companies and some work and you have to know what they do. There was this farm in western Massachusetts uh the two companies tampax out there friendly ice cream.
You put $1,000 in a month for 10 years. Brilliant idea. Says if they stop hiring I'm I'm going to leave. Okay. You made a million dollars. Huh? I mean people have all these edges. People in the steel industry know it's getting better before I do this. people have an edge and they they might as go to the casino and bet on red, you know.
So, by knowing the companies that you're invested in, there's a higher likelihood that you'll be able to stick with them when other people are scared. Yeah. The average range for a stock on the New York Stock Exchange, the average high, average low every year is 100%. So, a stock might start at 20, sell at 28, finish at 14, finish at 20.
It's a 100% move every year. So, it's 50% up, 50% downish. And that's how it's 100% swing in the price. That's the average stock. Wow. And most stocks you're going to buy, they're probably going to go down. The odds sometimes they go up. If the story is powerful, like Watskco or Chrysler, you might buy it up.
If you don't know what they do and it goes down, and I've had people say, "This stock's gone from 50 to one. How much can I lose?" And I say, "Well, wait a second. If somebody put $10,000 in at 50 and you put $50,000 at one, it goes to zero. Who loses the most? I mean, stocks go to zero. I've had them.
You know, I wasn't buying them on the way to zero. But stocks go down. If you don't understand what they do, if you can't explain to an 11year-old in a minute or less why you own it, not this sucker is going up. I've heard that one before. Why? What is what's the story of this company? They're good business, good balance sheet, they're fine.
That's why I own it. Yeah. If you can't do that, you should buy a fund. You've instructed investors to write a script for the stock they're going to buy. Yeah. Write the story down. Why is the stock going to work or why is it undervalued? Because I've told this to people in high school and college saying, make a paper portfolio.
Yeah. Pick 10 stocks and watch them over a year or two and say why you bought them. list the reasons and see what happens. Right? That's that's what this we're about. We do this. We have those our fund managers. They don't wait for the analysts come in. They're out researching companies. They're on the phone talking to companies.
Every fund manager is the highest role of fail is an analyst. Fund analyst. We have analysts under that. We have all this information coming in. It's staggering now with my information. I go back in time. We own a lot of Nike. This story is amazing. I own a lot of Nike and their inventories were out of whack.
Not a good sign. This before the internet. We We had to go to a library and get their quarterly report. Our library fell. We got the came in, we open up, inventories went down, we backed up the truck. I mean, the concept of, you know, they used to mail it out by mail to the shareholders. Now they have a website.
It's everybody on the planet knows what they do. Yeah. Information J is unbelievable. If you you can't understand they have company presentations, it's a lot easier to understand what you own today. So, I think you're saying in today's day and age, you have no excuse not to know the companies you own.
It's too easy. It's too easy. You don't need a Bloomberg. It's websites. Here's another one on risk. You said far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves. Talk about that. Well, I think people have, you know, they're always worried the market's going to round out and and it does, as I mentioned.
Um, and, you know, two years ago they're saying 2024 was going to be a down year for the economy and 25 down year. I mean, every year I think economists predicted 33 of the last 11 recessions. Yes. And with great certainty. Yeah. In my head. Yeah. Yep. And I think, you know, people are they're basically it's a you look dumb in this business.
You're terrific in this business. If you write six and a half times out of 10, that's a great score. Yeah. Even if you're right five times out of 10, if you own Costco or Walmart or or I can't pronounce in a video. I'm getting close to being able to pronounce it. I think you I think you nailed it just then.
Yeah, that offsets your mistakes. Yeah, you have to have these winners offset mistakes. And that's we've done for 70 years at
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