저자: SteveMiller · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥100 단기(1~3주) 하락 경고. 모멘텀 지표(슬림 리본)가 음전환, 사이클 분석상 하락 추세 및 헤드앤숄더 천장 형성. QQQ 약 330~350 하락 목표, 10월 중순~11월 초 저점 전망. NVDA·META·SQ·MSFT도 동일하게 하락 패턴이라 주장. 하락 리스크 대비 보상 4:1 이상으로 평가.
다듬은 글
all right we're gonna do our stock market uh look and we're gonna look at the nasdaq one to three week view and i'm giving you a warning in here that there are breakdowns last week we talked about that there were some deteriorating conditions in here and that it was looking like there would be a potential breakdown we gave you the re-evaluation evaluation levels we gave you the breakdown levels all of those things and they all broke uh for the s p 500 and the nasdaq despite the fact that there's a rebound here on friday that we don't even know is going to be able to hold up because we saw a big selling come in on thursday uh in the final hour uh and of course final hour selling is very different than we've seen over this last year and a half so uh the the tone has changed the market has changed and very significant things are happening right now that aren't good let's take a look here this is the qqq this is what we're gonna do our analysis on uh for this week the nasdaq looking at this etf so i'm gonna this is just nothing on here right we do have our uh the volume on the bottom and we have the slim ribbon po and the slim ribbon on the top what i'm going to show you right now is that the slim ribbon right over here is the one of the best momentum indicators you will ever see when it is green and this is green on the bottom and the slim ribbon po it's positive when you get these up arrows it shows you resumptions of positive conditions sometimes when you correct it will turn neutral blue but then it will turn green again as you see giving that signal right there what happened was is you got a little bit of a whip saw here as the marker turned neutral and right in here it turned negative this is where it turned negative right there which was fair warning that the momentum conditions were getting bad and here you could see right here it continued to warn of resumptions and the widening of the slim ribbon is a sign of momentum in that direction increasing just as it did right over here in a positive way and all positive it's now doing it that way negative and all negative right there and now what i'm going to do is bring in the analysis the cycle analysis and now all of a sudden this chart lights up with information that i'm going to show you about so we have cycle analysis in here these are the cycle brackets this is a drawing tool that shows you the rhythm in the market this is money flow this is a visual way to see money flow when cycles are configured bullishly and you can see we have these green arrows and here showing you that's when each of the highs is higher and each of the lows is lower in the cycle and you have this upward directional component which is essentially positive money flows positive momentum going through this period once the decline comes down and starts to test the previous low even though this is positive you get a warning now i want you to note that this good positive structure followed by a structure that was losing strength followed by the structure that topped very early in this cycle giving you what we call left hand translation that's actually what forms head and shoulders tops head and shoulders tops and bottoms are formed by cycle rhythms and you see that in here you can learn that in our psychoanalysis workshop at askslim.com which we have a special starting next week so you can see in here this is where it turned negative now this is really what is key right now and i'm going to get a little closer look as we look at these cycles that are coming up right in here let me just zoom this in a little bit more for you to see so here is where that cycle peaked and turned down and broke the previous low it also broke that neckline you can see so now what we have is cycle configuration that is negative and the directional component shown in here by this channel is now pointing to the downside that keeps all rallies from getting through resistance levels and will keep pressure on the market so these cycle rhythms which are now averaging about 20 days between each low tell us that this decline that we're in is going to come till mid-october around somewhere between the maybe 11th and 15th of october and we have a target zone that is is formulated off of the fib extensions that come off of this last cycle which says it's likely to hit 33 355 on the qqq down to potentially 350 in this cycle so that says all of the rally attempts in here are likely to fail and to keep coming down and because of the negative configuration right in here it is likely that the next cycle will rally and fail in a resistance zone that will develop in here and then go to lower lows we are projecting that down to that intermediate 23.6 fib extension as this negative directional component moves the market to the downside and that comes in right around 3 30 on the downside in the qqq so this is our three week basically one to three week projection almost four weeks that the market will flounder right in here try to rally and keep failing maybe get a better rally in here and then move down again with this these this low here projected out to around november 10th plus or minus right in here these breakdowns are very significant when you get these and you get these uh translations that peak early which tell you major selling is in the market and when you get these breakdowns would show you that the can that the uh overall configuration of the market is negative so that's you know a look at the nasdaq it is clearly negative when you look at this with a lot of risk i want to show you four key stocks that are uh that are in this tech category that have very similar things going on let's look at nvidia nv ada which of course was a stock that did super well based on the uh there's uh their uh cryptocurrency um the cryptocurrency markets uh and uh their chips uh here you can see the cycle analysis in here it's uh gone from neutral to positive for a long period of time momentum now turns negative and the breakdown right over here which points to a decline yes out into the middle of november just like i showed you in the uh looking at the qqq so that's nvidia let's take a look at facebook right here facebook same thing it is broken down right there uh and uh you might get some rallies in here but look at the negative momentum first time in all of this time frame and here uh and of that giving you a condition that is suggestive that the this will decline into the middle of november you could see the what we call the principle of synchronicity at work where like um products are likely to bottom at similar times or at the same time take a look at square right in here which is done super well this first low due yes middle of october as you see right over there and then the next low middle of november this has a breakdown likely to be coming down to this area of fib extension around 2 30 or there in this next wave in this next week and a half that is a look at square and let's just take a look at microsoft which has a different pattern but still negative as we get this cycle right in here which bottomed right at that point and all of these positive conditions and all of these bullish signals that you see right in here from microsoft it now breaks that kilo and momentum turning negative as you could see right there we're expecting a rally but that rally to fail and then when that rally fails we'll have we'll have a resistance zone in just uh the next few days for our members and then it is likely to be moving down again through that period right over there and this low odd over here towards the end of october so it's a slightly different pattern for microsoft but still negative as it turns the corner here on the downside and momentum gets extremely negative that is a great look at four very key stocks that are in this tech uh category text streaming um just uh a uh really bad condition let's go back to that qqq really quickly for you to see it one more time there is that analysis that is just screaming at you please do become an aslim premium member so that you can learn uh so much about this look for our cycle analysis workshop special which is coming next week these are negative conditions and warnings the probability of a declining market is very significant relative to this market saving itself and moving up sharply that could always happen but we sure doubt it and i would say the risk rewards are four to one or greater on the downside based on everything that we see in here negative directional component negative money flows negative momentum breakdowns head and shoulders top all of this really giving you a sense that there is trouble out there for full analysis seeing our weekly and daily on uh this on the nasdaq the s p 500 the russell the vix 22 other futures contracts please do watch future speak on wednesday if you become a psp member that's our pr that's our popular services preview that we're running this week that i talked about earlier in the show you must sign up for that at the top of the website you'll be able to see future speak for this week at no cost to you no credit card so please do a sign up for our psp that is a look at the qqq at the short-term view which is not pretty as you can see when you look at that you
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