저자: SteveMiller-소속:미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 1~3주 단기 지지선 부근에서 반등 가능성, 다만 모멘텀(슬림리본)은 아직 양호. 나스닥(QQQ)은 모멘텀 붕괴(적색 전환)로 약세이며 389~394 저항대 도달 시 숏 진입 고려, 하방 목표 343 제시. 다우·SPY가 QQQ보다 강세로 평가되고 '강한 것은 사고 약한 것은 판다'는 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
all right this is the stock market short term view so i'm going to compare spy and qq give you the cycle analysis for the short term this is generally a one to three week perspective normally i bring the longer perspectives and not the shorter ones but i wanted to bring this one and also show you the conditions of these indexes using our a new eslim market monitor which is for our level four members um the uh i'm going to show you just the market monitor for these indexes and i think you're going to find it really fascinating uh bigger picture we were looking for top in the market early in this year and then a very serious correction in several waves with the first one down and through march where we expected to see a significantly weaker market let's take a look now as we switch over and take a look well this is the tnx on the analysis that i just did but we're going to look at the spy on the short term chart let me just move into this short term chart right over here so this is spy and what we're looking at here are the cyclic harmonics which are on the bottom that more digger dynamic dominant cycle right in here aligns with the russell which has been really a tell in what the market conditions are these shorter cycles as you can see right in here how they align up in the market right here and this one right here which bottom this is a little this one was a little short as you could see and then this one a little bit long and this is where that bottom is due so we expected selling to come in early in the year and then move to the downside now you can see on the bottom uh is the slim uh is the slim ribbon po this is our signal indicator and our momentum indicator that's based off of the slim ribbon right over here so the stock market the s p 500 has come down into this support right over here and the expectation is that it's going to get a rebound in here for the next couple of weeks potentially if you get a rebound in here and take out this low that's going to be a very bad signal but conditions in here are still okay when you look at this the slim ribbon still positive and you can see that by this being green the slim ribbon turned positive right over here and it gave you that week and a half of upside move into that holiday and it has remained positive so the momentum conditions are not really changing a lot looking at the s p 500 now get yourself a good mental picture of what this looks like again we said that you know it's getting into support it didn't get anywhere near these last lows over here and now is in an area where it could give you a rebound then you would get a rebound in the market if you got the rebound that we discussed in the uh bond market if you didn't watch that review go back and watch it in the full show and we expect to get a bond market rebound of a minor consequence and that could help this stock market move up and maybe even move up and test that high at about close to 480 in the sp y all along we talked about the likelihood of a divergent top where the other indexes didn't wouldn't do as well now look at this picture right over here it's very different when we look at the qqq so this shows you that same cycle and cycle right in here this broke down right in the middle got down right down to those lows didn't quite close below it then rallied up here tested the highs and came down back to this level again so this is where some intermediate supports come in but this is a negative occurrence when you get this type of a shape i also want you to see while the s p 500 has held in here and has stayed positive look at the slim ribbon po this is now red and there's a red arrow right over there which says to you momentum has broken down in the nasdaq and all you have to do is look at the tape to be able to see that that is true so we have that momentum breakdown there in the nasdaq that says to us that when you get the expected rebound in here that this is a cell and that's going to align and give you a message with the whole market while the s p 500 may get up and test the highs this zone is the best that we would expect the qqq to do that's 389 to uh up here about 394 and a half the center line right over there about 392.
so if we got up over here above that 388 and a half area that's where i would begin initiating shorts we're going to expect this rebound to come right in here as we get into this rising phase note rising phase the rally rising phase rising phase but a deficient cycle right over here is this one made a lower low this one equal the lows and you've got this kind of double top formation set up and this downward channel going on and if you look at the bottom of the of the downward channel and look at the measurement that's way down over here at about 343 which is a pretty reasonable target in march for us depending on how this accelerates to the downside so a very different picture i'm going to go back and forth as you look at the spy right in here which has positive momentum conditions the qqq right in here which has negative momentum conditions now so i wanted to show you that and see what see so that you could see the comparison and the fact that the your guide is really going to be well can the s p challenge those highs how does the qqq the nasdaq do when it gets up into that resistance zone and we don't really have the anchor point in here yet we don't have a bottom mate yet so all this could move into lower prices before we have that bottom set i wanted to show you right in here looking at our aslim market monitor right there and i'm just going to enhance that for you a bit and show you that this is the market monitor and what this looks at is our proprietary indicators our reversal scout our slim ribbon the market condition indicator and the option bias indicator so what we have in here looking at the spy spy all of a sudden the reversal scout which is measuring it on the shorter term pattern is turning negative so that's turning down the slim ribbon is still positive as i showed you uh the uh that's uh compared to the negative slim ribbon here uh in the uh qqq the mci market condition indicator is low uh in the s p 500 and the qqq when it's between 25 and -25 it's really in the uh area of the uh that's why it's orange and not red of just slightly negative but look at the iwm that's 68 uh it's neutral here a reversal scout you can see the mixed condition right over there and the dow jones clearly green green green all across telling you the strongest conditions are there so our option bias indicator s p 500 is still uh the highest level at 3.0 that tells you it's likely to give you the best rally and these other ones right in here the i qq and iwm are neutral so you can see very clearly looking at this the spy is stronger than the qqq and the dow is strongest of all you can get this uh market monitor by becoming a level four member and uh you will uh benefit from the amazing quality of that work again what we're looking for in here is a rally uh to begin sometime in the next several days for the stock market uh it's likely to be substandard i have doubts about it making a new high in the s p but we should likely do better than the uh uh qqq than than the nasdaq and as that hits that cell zone i really think that's an important a piece of information right there how it acts uh at that level and the conditions overall better for the spy and certainly much better for the dow than they are for the qqq like i said in the beginning of the show buy strong and sell weak i think that's going to be extremely important going on going forward you
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