저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 금리를 너무 낮게 유지해 정책 실패가 누적됐고, 인플레이션 환경에서는 금 같은 실물자산과 배당을 주는 우량주가 유리하다는 주장. 연준 정책 비판: 금리를 너무 늦게, 너무 낮게 올렸다는 주장. 정부가 시장금리를 정하면 공급 부족이나 과잉이 생긴다고 설명. 부채·저축 문제: 기업·가계·정부 부채가 사상 최고이고 저축률은 역대 최저 수준이라고 주장. 저금리가 과도한 차입을 부추겼다는 진단. 자산 버블: 저금리 때문에 기술주와 가상화폐 등 자산이 과대평가됐고, 금리 인상 후 이런 자산이 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 인플레이션 대응: 현금, 채권, 보험 연금 등 확정 자산은 피하고 실물자산을 보유하라고 권고. 과도하게 비싼 주식은 피하고 PER 5~15배 수준의 우량 배당주를 선호. 금 전망: 중앙은행과 기관 투자자의 금 비중이 낮아 추가 매입 여지가 크고, 공급이 제한적이라 금 가격은 상승해야 한다고 주장. 금리 전망: 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스이며 금리는 더 올라야 한다는 입장. 구체적 기간·목표가는 제시되지 않음. 리스크: 인플레이션이 지속되면 채권 보유자는 손실을 보고 주식 보유자는 상대적으로 유리하다는 점을 강조.
다듬은 글
we've barely begun to feel the consequences of the mistakes that the FED has made you know the big mistakes were not raising rates I mean they need to raise rates in fact they they waited too long to raise rates and they haven't raised them enough the problem was they cut them so low in the first place and and they they left them so low but that is also part of the problem we should not allow a government agency even though technically the Federal Reserve is not a government agency it's independent although it doesn't operate independently but we don't want a group of men in a building you know sitting around a table deciding what the interest rate should be um you know the free market needs to set interest rates it's a very important price price of money and we don't want governments guessing what the right price is especially when they have a hidden political agenda that causes them to generally want interest rates to be lower than the market would naturally set them and whenever you have people fixing prices as opposed to a market discovering a price you're never going to get the right price you're either going to be too low or you're going to be too high and in the case of interest rates we've we've been too low I mean the rate was at zero for pretty much a decade there's no way that that was the real rate of interest that wasn't the rate of interest that the market was going to set If the Fed was neutral and just you know stayed out of the way and just let everything you know happen uh they they suppress them and every time you have the government setting a price you're going to have uh negative consequences usually a surplus or a shortage of something so if they set up price too low then there's going to be a shortage well more people are going to want to buy but there won't be enough product an example of that would be what we did with gas in the 1970s the reason that you had these long lines is because we controlled the price we set caps on natural gas or gas prices and so instead of just paying a high price we waited in a long line right and that was the price we paid our time and of course we had a ration gas the market rations it with price but if you don't let the market ration it with price then you're going to do it with uh you know a more official rationing another example is when they set the price to to uh too high uh and then you get a surplus a classic example is the minimum wage you set a minimum wage and the price for unskilled labor is too high and so you get a surplus of unskilled labor because nobody wants to buy it that's unemployment right so you legislate unemployment into existence when you just pick a wage if the market was able to discover the wage for unskilled labor then all the unskilled laborers who wanted to work would have jobs but the government prevents that from happening with the minimum wage now the higher the minimum wage is set the more unemployment that is going to result but when the government fixes interest rates you're also going to have shortages and surpluses if you set the rate too low you're not going to have enough savings who's going to want to save when their return is really low on the other hand you're going to have an excess amount of borrowing everybody's going to want to borrow if they can borrow at a very low rate and look at the U.S economy we're loaded up with debt we have record auto loans record Mortgage Debt records student debt record credit card debt uh the U.S government has record amounts of debt corporations are loaded up with record amounts of debt why do we all have so much debt well because interest rates were too low and so we had a lot of borrowing that would not have taken place if the cost of money was higher the flip side the savings rate is near an all-time record low most Americans don't have enough savings just to cover you know a few hundred dollar emergency expense that comes up how did America go from a nation of Savers to a nation of profligate Spenders well Lois interest rates so had we had a market based rate we would have a lot more savings a lot more economic growth and capital investment and we wouldn't be loaded up with debt and we wouldn't have had all of these asset bubbles that's another consequence of keeping interest rates too low assets are mispriced so you get you know tech stocks in the stratosphere uh or you know cryptocurrencies or all kinds of crazy things happen in an environment where interest rates are too low I mean we saw that with the housing bubble that wasn't an accident that that bubble was inflated the FED lowered rates to one percent that was an unnaturally low rate of interest and a lot of people took advantage of that cheap money and they bought houses we got used to the cheap money and we did a lot of foolish things as a result of all that cheap money like if you're you know you if you're doing a lot of drugs and you're you know High out of your mind you're probably going to do stuff that you wouldn't do if you were sober you'll regret it when you sober up and you know as the FED uh raises rates people start to sober up and you know and they start dumping a lot of these overpriced assets that that they bought uh during a media but rates are going a lot higher um over time the FED is you know just begun and in reality even though we've had all these rate hikes interest rates are still below the inflation rate even the way the government measures it because the actual rate is quite a bit higher than what the government will admit to through the CPI but even if you accept the flawed CPI interest rates are lower and so uh we're still encouraging people to borrow by providing them with a negative rate and and so rates are too low rates need to be positive the free market would not set real interest rates negative because nobody in their right mind is going to loan money to get back less than they loan because all loans have a degree of risk associated with them and you're not going to risk your money for a negative rate of return you might as well just keep your money and at least break even right but of course if there is a lot of inflation then people will look for alternative ways to store uh their purchasing power because they can't do it in the currency that's being inflated so they'll look at Alternatives you need to own assets when you have a lot of inflation uh you don't want to own uh dead instruments you don't want to be a creditor so you don't want to have cash you don't want to have a CD or you don't want to have loan somebody money and they're just going to pay you back the same amount that you loaned you don't want cash value in an insurance policy or an annuity because inflation is going to erode away the value but you also don't want to own highly speculative companies that were bit up in price because of the zero percent rate environment we were in so certain types of assets won't do well during inflation and those were the ones that were already inflated that they that they the prices were pumped up by the cheap money and so they became very overpriced and so as the air comes out of those bubbles even in an inflationary environment the price of those assets is going to fall so you want to avoid what benefited when uh rates were at zero and and you want to look at different assets that will provide protection because one of the things that inflation does other than act as a tax for the government because that's how the government generates the income it needs to pay its for its spending we just had that 1.7 trillion dollar spending Bill nobody's taxes are getting raised to cover those costs so everyone's going to pay the cost through higher prices the government's going to print money and create inflation as opposed to taxing us and taking our money they're going to take the purchasing power from our money by putting more money into circulation to pay for these deficits so the government will benefit but through through that but also when you have inflation you transfer wealth from creditors to debtors because the people who loan money when they get paid back they're not getting paid back the same value that they loan the flip side is the people who borrowed money when they have to repay the debt they're not paying back as much value as they originally got uh so you know if you look at a stock for example there are stockholders and there are bondholders so during inflation the bondholders lose at the stockholders a game right so it's the bondholders loss is the stockholders game but you don't want to buy a stock that's you know 40 50 100 times earnings or has no earnings because then there can be a big loss but if you buy a real company that's trading at you know five to 15 times earnings somewhere in there has a good dividend yield and they they've been around they're selling products and services that people really need to buy and they'll keep buying them and even if the price goes up they'll still buy maybe they'll buy a little bit less but they're going to keep on buying uh they'll give up other things in order to keep buying what you've got those are the companies that you want to own as a way to beat inflation to have a dividend yield that will rise as fast or faster than your cost of living and you want to own real things you want to own Commodities you know and so gold is one of the Commodities that people will own it's obviously the easiest commodity to own because the storage costs are so low you can get a lot of value in a small space compared to other Commodities so in highly inflationary times gold is an instrument of choice not just for individuals but for governments I mean you could already see see that now major central banks around the world have been adding to their Holdings of gold which are still relatively low compared to where those Holdings have been in the past so I think central banks still have a lot of gold to buy but the average investor particularly the institutions are way under invested in Gold compared to where they would have been 30 40 years ago so there's a lot of room for gold to be purchased by investors and there's not a lot of gold so if if more companies more investors more governments are going to want to gain or increase their exposure to gold uh they it's only going to be because the price goes way up it can't it can't happen without that without prices going up because there's just not enough gold there to buy at the current price so the price has to has to rise
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