저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 달리오는 금·부채·정치 양극화·세계질서 재편이 동시에 진행되는 것을 과거 1930~45년과 유사한 위기 구조로 보며, 매우 심각한 위험을 경고하지만 구체적 단기 가격 예측은 제시하지 않는다. 1971년 금태환 중단과 1933년 루스벨트의 금 몰수·대량 발행을 비교하며, 과거 위기를 연구한 덕분에 2008년 금융위기 때 수익을 냈다고 설명한다. 현재 미국은 돈을 대량 발행해 부채를 메우고 있으며, 이전 대비 통화량이 약 25% 이상 늘었다고 주장한다. 금리가 이미 0 수준이라 금리 인하 여력이 없다는 점이 두 시기의 공통점이다. 인플레이션은 통화·신용 지출 증가가 재화 공급을 크게 앞지를 때 발생한다고 설명한다. 미국 내 부의 격차와 정치 갈등은 1900년 이후 최대 수준이며, 선거 결과를 양측이 수용하지 않을 가능성과 법치·헌법 질서 위협을 우려한다. 세계질서 측면에서 미국 중심 질서가 중국·러시아와의 경쟁으로 흔들리고 있으며, 무역·기술·지정학·자본·군사 등 5가지 전쟁이 진행 중이라고 주장한다. 유럽의 러시아 군사 충돌도 그 예로 든다. 미국은 생산보다 많이 소비하고, 인프라 투자를 소홀히 하며, 다음 세대에 부채를 넘기고, 교육 격차를 방치하고 있다고 비판한다. 부의 불균형은 자본주의 사이클의 자연스러운 결과이며, 후기에는 부유층이 오히려 부채를 늘리는 역설이 나타난다고 설명한다. 중국은 높은 저축 성향으로 달러 부채를 사 왔다고 언급한다. 달리오는 극단적 좌우 대신 중도와 초당적 해법을 강조한다. 단기 주식·채권·환율에 대한 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
1971 the United States had paper bills that were like checks in a checkbook they didn't have any value but what they would do is they'd get you gold because the U.S wrote more checks and it had bowled in the bank the gold was going down and on August 15 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I watched Nixon said they're not going to get your gold so with defaulted and I went on the floor of the stock exchange and I said wow this is a crisis and I thought it would go down on the stock market and it went up a lot and so I researched it and I found that on March 5th 1933 the exact same thing happened Roosevelt announced that they were not going to get the gold and that they would go off that and that they would print a lot of money and they printed a lot of money and what I realized at that time and saw us many times since that anything that surprised me may not have happened in my lifetime but happened before I studied the Great depression because I did that I was able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis we made a lot of money in the financial crisis because I understood what happened in the Great Depression so in this case three big things are happening that never happened before in our lifetimes and the last time they happened was in the 1930 to 45 period and those three things are the creation of a lot of printing of money to pay for the debts we needed to at the time but it was very overdone we actually sent out checks which were about five times as much as the amount that would have compensated people for their losses where'd they get the money from the government borrowed the money who did they borrow the money from the Federal Reserve so now everybody gets all these checks and everybody's happy because they get all these checks but when they get all this money and then they spend it everybody's surprised they got inflation we've increased the amount of money by 25 percent or more the price of anything is equal to the amount of money and credits spent on it divided by the quantity of it sold and so when you increase the amount of money and credit buying power spending by a lot more than you to increase the quantity you get inflation because what happened in both of those cases is they hit zero interest rates so I can't lower the price of money so what do I do number two is the amount of internal conflict that's going on in the United States the size of the wealth gaps the size of the political conflicts is the greatest since not only the 30 to 45 period it's much greater than that 1900.
you have to go back to 1900 to have that conflict we're having a form of a civil war where populism is one side in a battle with the other side that won't accept losing well that's why in the next elections there's a good chance that neither side will accept the result and accept losing history shows that when the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system the system is in Jeopardy right now there's not much agreement and the polarity is becoming and greater the political right now if you follow politics if you even watch events like you know what will the reaction be to Supreme Court making the decision of Roe versus Wade why are moderates in the political system choosing not to run for re-election we have this internal conflict that is actually threatening rule of law and the adherence to the Constitution it's entirely possible that people with different views they will go to different places and they will fight so that degree has never happened in my lifetime before 1945 was when the New World Order began these World orders happen because there's a conflict and then somebody wins so that brings me to the third thing that's happening which is the rise of a great power to be comparable China and with it Russia and they form alliances right there's the Allied powers and the Axis powers two different sides kind of and then they're competing because what happens is when you have a new world order the winners of the war get to set the rules so in 1945 America won and it was the richest country in the world it had 80 percent of the world's gold and gold was money and it had 50 percent of the world's economy and it had a monopoly on military power it set the rules and that's why the U.N is in New York and the World Bank and IMF are in Washington DC it set the rules so that's changing there are certain things that we're doing we're spending a lot more than we're earning we're living off the printing presses we're letting the infrastructure go we're giving our next Generation debts we're not educating all children well if you educate your people and they are more civil with each other and you provide equal opportunity the system will work better in this world order battle and we have a world order battle there is an ally find an Axis power kind of thing that is emerging there's certainly a competition there are five different kinds of Wars there's a trade War there's a technology War there is a geopolitical influence War there's a capital war and there could be a military war there is a military war now in Europe with Russia and those are the patterns of history and there's only one way to do well and that is to be strong in all those ways so I'm very bipartisan I believe the opposite of the polarity the extremes of the left of the right I pray for the middle and bipartisanship to find ways I've watched the process evolved in the cycle so what happens is you have the war you have the new rules Wars are sort of great equalizers and then you come back and then you have a period of peace and prosperity you have peace because nobody wants to fight the dominant power and you have four equal people and then they have Prosperity but the way the system works is over a period of time that creates differences in wealth and that's fine you Provide Capital that's the capital system people with great ideas come along and they're productive and inventive and they produce great things and so on but as they obtain the greater wealth they also obtain greater benefits like they could educate their children better if you're poor you don't get to educate your children better and so the polarity increases and it becomes unfair because you know we all should have like equal opportunities and then you also build up a lot of debt here's the irony of it as these Cycles begin at their later stages the rich are the ones who get into debt and now you would think it's exactly the opposite right because if you're rich it's easier to have a good living standard and safe but like the United States when per capita income was 40 times that in China it started to borrow from China because they have a big saving mentality when you have a poor person who doesn't have much they want to save their saving is in our currency because when they think oh how do I save in world currency I'm going to buy dollar denominated debt and I'm Gonna Save in it when we borrow and that's been the case we didn't experience what our prior Generations experience I know my dad went through World War II he went through depression and War his mentality is very different in terms of you know what you take for granted or how you save and that creates a cycle
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