저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2023년 미국 달러가 역대급 약세를 보일 것이며, 그 결과 금과 실물 기업 중심의 가치주·배당주가 유리하다는 주장. 달러 약세 논리: 2022년 긴축 기대로 달러 롱이 몰렸으나, 연준이 인플레 싸움을 포기하고 경기 부양으로 선회하면서 달러 약세가 올 것으로 봄. 실업률 상승과 깊은 경기침체가 연준의 피벗을 강제할 것이라는 시각. 금: 연준의 피벗이나 양적긴축(QT) 둔화·재개 시 금에 '로켓 연료'가 될 것이라고 주장. 연준 대차대조표 축소는 과거보다 더 어려울 것이라고 봄. 기술주: 여전히 비싸며 다음 버블은 과거 기술주 버블과 같은 자산이 아닐 것이라고 봄. 인플레 환경에서는 먼 미래 이익을 기다리는 성장주 대신 현재 이익과 배당을 주는 기업이 선호될 것이라고 봄. 가격결정력: 인플레 환경에서는 가격을 올려도 수요가 유지되는 기업만 살아남으며, 소비자 신용에 의존하던 기업은 타격을 받을 것이라고 봄. 신용·암호화폐: 암호화폐 붕괴(베드배스앤비욘드 파산 등)는 시작에 불과하며, 장기 제로금리 이후 금리 인상이 신용시장 문제로 번질 것이라고 경고. 서브프라임이 모기지 위기의 시작이었던 것처럼 다른 부문으로 확산될 것으로 봄. 스태그플레이션 시나리오: 깊은 경침 속 인플레가 높게 지속되면 연준이 부양을 위해 인플레를 더 키워 금융자산 전반이 부진하고, 장기금리는 상승(채권 가격 하락)하며, 고밸류 적자기업은 하락, 실물 가치주는 상승할 것이라고 봄. 포트폴리오: 자신의 배당·가치 전략이 2022년 플러스 수익을 냈고, 2023년 달러 약세가 추가 순풍이 될 것이며, 선진국에서 신흥국으로의 자금 이동이 시작됐다고 봄.
다듬은 글
everything that's good economics is bad politics you know and everything that's good politics is bad economics that's the underlying problem with democracy and why there usually is violent in their deaths as they are in their births dollars starting off the year week which is the way it ended the prior year and I think 2023 could end up being one of the weakest years ever for the US dollar I think a lot of people piled into the Long Dollar trade in 2022 based on fed tightening and the idea that the Fed was going to continue to ratchet up rage to bring down inflation and that got a lot of people into the dollar I think what's going to get them out of the dollar in 2023 is the realization that the FED is going to give up its inflation fight not because it wins but because it loses and it's going to focus attention on the economy which is going to be in an even deeper recession I think in 2023 the recession deniers are going to finally have to admit the truth and there's going to be a lot of pressure on the FED to stimulate the economy especially when we see a big increase in unemployment which we haven't had yet but which is coming but the only stimulus the FED has in its tool chest is inflation that's all it's ever had the only thing the Federal Reserve does when it wants to stimulate the economy is create inflation except the problem is now that inflation is the problem and you can't solve a problem by creating more of the same problem that you're trying to solve gold stocks are going to do very well in an environment where the FED is pivoted and even if the FED doesn't make a full pivot it doesn't have to cut rates it just stops hiking them but I think more importantly would be quantitative tightening if it slows down the pace of qt or actually goes back to QE that is going to be you know Rocket Fuel I think for a goal because you know the markets were pricing in this big reduction in the fed's balance sheet and I think the FED is going to be even less successful shrinking at this time than it was the first time it tried remember you know that when the balance sheet got to 4 trillion they were supposed to bring it back down to one trillion and I don't even know if they got below 3 trillion before they cranked it up to almost 9 trillion and it's going to be harder to shrink a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet than it was to shrink a four trillion dollar balance sheet especially when they're trying to shrink it in a much more highly levered up economy the tech stocks are not cheap in fact despite a rather significant decline they remain expensive but I don't think that the next bubble is going to be in the same assets as the pass bubble so when the FED tries to reflate this economy I don't think they're going to reflate the tech bubble we had a tech bubble uh 20 years ago in the late 1990s and then we had another one more recently but I think that this next time the money is not going to flow into that sector and I think one of the main reasons is going to be inflation I think that tech stocks were part of the low inflation story low inflation meant low interest rates and that meant that companies that were growth oriented that weren't expected to deliver profits until many years into the future when interest rates and inflation were low investors were willing to wait and they were willing to pay up for the prospect of of a big payday in the distant future but now with the cost of waiting so much higher not just the nominal interest rates but the inflation rate if money is really losing value much faster than two percent a year you don't want to wait 10 20 years to get your money who knows what it's going to be worth by then so I think investors are going to be looking for stocks that can show them the money right now so it's not companies that are promising earnings in the future it's companies that have earnings right now and can deliver those earnings to shareholders in dividends and dividends that can go up with inflation people are going to be looking for the stock market as an inflation hedge to get out of bonds to get out of cash and they want real companies they want companies with pricing power that's important in an inflationary environment you have to be able to raise your prices without destroying your your sales now a lot of companies are not going to be in that position when they raise their prices their buyers are going to go away and in fact even if they don't raise their prices if your customers are spending a lot more money on food on energy on insurance on rent on taxes and they have nothing left over then it doesn't even matter if you cut your prices you don't have any customers so a lot of companies that have been living off of the discretionary income of the consumer especially when the consumer had a lot of home equity and could tap into it or had the ability to buy now and pay later have all kinds of credit they could run up their credit cards a lot of companies lived off of that well they're going to die by that as well when the consumer can no longer Avail himself of of that credit the last couple of times the Fed was able to orchestrate the pivot it did it when inflation was two percent or less than two percent and that provided the cover for the FED hey it's okay to do this because we have really low inflation in fact it it's too low and so we can kill two birds with one stone we can stimulate the economy and get closer to our two percent inflation goal because we're going to stimulate the economy with inflationary monetary policy which they claimed we needed of course we needed it like a hole in the head because we don't need two percent inflation plus it wasn't even two percent that's only because they lied about it they had a lie to get it to below two percent it was actually probably four percent and now of course it's double digit although they won't acknowledge double digit because of the way the index is is rigged but my point is that let's say that we're back in recession maybe even a financial crisis you know we're seeing it in a small scale play out right now in crypto and blockchain right you're seeing all the dominoes one company after another going bankrupt freezing accounts because everybody owed everybody else money and there was so much counterparty risk and it's this you know and so everything is kind of imploding but so far are it's kind of isolated you know to the crypto yeah you know you got Bed Bath and Beyond came out yesterday and they're filing bankruptcy of course that was a meme stock got to thirty dollars a few months ago now it's barely a dollar right but you know it's you're really seeing this you know collapse in crypto although there's still a long way to go down because you know Bitcoin is still trading above uh uh sixteen thousand so the people are still in denial in you know in the total gang uh but what I think is going to happen is as higher interest rates work their way through the economy you're going to see more problems in the credit markets blowing up and it's going to be outside of crypto because remember the mortgage crisis started with subprime and when the Fed was out there saying oh don't worry it's contained a subprime I would say no subprime is the tip of the iceberg we're just seeing it in subprime first it's the the weakest link in the chain but you know we're going to see it in the rest of the mortgage market so we're seeing a credit problem problems first in crypto because that's the weakest link but you're gonna see you know broader problems throughout the economy because we've had zero percent interest rates for more than a decade you know you can't build up that kind of drug addiction and then you know all of a sudden rates are five percent and you know there's not massive uh you know withdrawal so let's say we have another financial crisis we're in a deep recession but inflation hasn't come anywhere near two percent I mean maybe it's not eight percent maybe it's four or five percent right that's still well north of the fed's so-called Target so what happens if in an environment where inflation is already double or triple the fed's target but then the FED gives up the inflation fight and says no we got to stimulate the economy and they stimulate the economy by creating even more inflation well now you're throwing gasoline out of fire and so now a high inflation rate gets even higher and in that environment I don't see Financial assets as a a group doing well so I think bonds get killed you know instead of going up with QE they actually go down long-term interest rates go up which is going to be a huge problem a high multiple companies companies that lose money these prices continue to fall the stocks that go up are again the real businesses you know that's why the Dow Jones was the strongest of the major indexes last year because it has the most value even though you know on a relative basis there's not a lot of value there I mean in an absolute basis but relative to the s p or the NASDAQ there's better value in the Dow now there's even more value you know outside the United States I mean that's why you know for example our investment strategies our two main strategies dividend and value both had positive return in 2022 and you know they weren't huge returns but we were in the black you know and and that's huge when everybody else is down 20 30 40 percent could be up a couple of percent is is a big achievement and what made it even more difficult was that the US dollar was still up about 10 percent and all all of our stocks are foreign so they had to go up 10 percent just to break even and so our stocks did better than that but I think 2023 is going to be an even better year for my investment strategy I mean I I think it it just could be phenomenal if we hit it on all cylinders which I think we will which will be a falling dollar which is a big Tailwind but then we continue to see the rotation from momentum to value and we're just loaded up with value and dividend payers and I think the next rotation which has just started and people aren't really paying attention yet is from developed markets to emerging market and so you know we've got good positions there so I think we're we're set to where the money is going to be you know I've been I've been set for a while now I've been anticipating this rotation for a long time so you know it's it's a long overdue it's it's
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