저자: InvestAnswers진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 목표가 8,000달러 시나리오를 로보택시(10조달러)·옵티머스(30조달러 이상) TAM과 테슬라 점유율·순이익률·PER 13배로 계산. 엔비디아는 마진 압축이 있었으나 아마존식 성장으로 정당화 가능, 팔란티어는 큰 TAM 근거로 고밸류 정당화. 테슬라·스페이스X는 2027~2028년 합병 가능성이 있으며 두 종목은 분산투자가 아닌 미래에 대한 집중 베팅이라고 주장. 포트폴리오의 80%는 안정적 핵심 종목, 20%는 투기성 종목으로 구성하고 핵심 종목 비중 50% 정도를 권장.
다듬은 글
With many of our I-13 assets, we expect significant revenue growth. Nvidia expects 70% growth next year alone. Tesla and SpaceX expect significant growth. I like the idea of 20 ways to reach $8,000 for a Tesla, but I'm having a hard time understanding how that's possible. Tesla at $8,000 would provide a market cap of $31.6 trillion, while the entire current global GDP of the UK is $126.3 trillion .
If you add to that the idea that we could increase the global market capitalization, I see some leeway here , but what would that mean for Tesla if it were 25% of global GDP. And there should be some compression with these assets. How do you plan this option? What's happening with Nvidia, Amazon, while Tesla and Palantir have high multiples?
I like your way of thinking. Great question. Let me try to break this down, because there's a lot of really cool news happening this week that will help us get back to the point, and I'll also show you how I think and how I invest. So, this question actually opens up a whole kimono of thoughts. First, I made a video about eight ways to make $8,000 at the price of Tesla in 2032.
I made this video almost four years ago. So it was a long time ago, but it really stuck in people's memories, and I'm not giving up on that. Plus, I took it down to all those good moments that actually happened now. Now we have things like megapods, logical inferences, cars, and all the things that were, are now part of lithium plants, things that weren't part of the 10 million Optimus plant that's currently under construction in Austin, Texas.
I didn't know about this four years ago. This is all new. That's why the number of ways has gone from eight to 20. So it's even easier now, but let me explain. Okay, first of all , if the company has 3.95 billion shares outstanding , which you will own in the future, a share price of 8,000 brings us to 31.6 trillion.
Yes, that's right. You are right. But remember that the value of a company is not the same as GDP. Okay, the market capitalization of a company is the value, the expected value of future earnings over time, not the world GDP. And global GDP is also changing very quickly due to AI. Remember, in the golden age of AI, everything gets weird.
Let me break down what this is . I touched on this briefly on Friday, but robo-taxis are worth $10 trillion, digital AI is creating 20 to 30% of the global economy, about $20 to $30 trillion. Guess who will be the biggest player in digital AI? Yes, SpaceX. And humanoid robots - humanoids can increase the economy by 10 times.
Okay, so back to your GDP of $126 trillion. If Elon is right when he says that humanoid robots can increase the economy by 10 times, that would bring us to 1.26 trillion. I know these numbers are crazy, but this is far in the future. This is sometime in 2035 or later. But then again, we live... A few years ago I made a video about exponentials.
This is very difficult for people to grasp, but please try it today. Let me try to break this down into parts. First, Katie Wood talked about it, as did Elon Musk and many others. Cybertaxi is robotaxi, and robotaxi is a $10 trillion opportunity worldwide. Now Tesla has brought a whole bunch of cybertaxis to Japan.
Japan actually wants autonomous cyber taxis in four major cities, because I've looked at this before. The people who used to drive taxis in Japan have all retired , and the last thing the younger generation wants to do is drive taxis. It's a job that not everyone wants. Come on. This is 10 trillion.
Then we have Optimus at 30 trillion, and according to what he said at the G20, it's even much more. Okay, if a humanoid Optimus could generate 10 times the world's GDP, we're talking about an opportunity of over $30 trillion. But let's just wait for now. Thanks also to Investing KO. Now, going back to what I mentioned earlier, this is the week I reached the IUI.
I also emphasized that everything is changing very, very quickly in this world. Okay, AI, artificial intelligence, is when an AI system can learn, reason, and perform any intellectual task that a human can perform. It happened this week. This is deep. No one noticed this. This happened based on all the AI benchmarks.
And Elon Musk also predicted this. He predicted this last year. He believes we will achieve the UAI in 2026 . He was right. We were right. He will reach it. He is very good at predicting the future and predicting things like bottlenecks and so on. Now let's go back to the numbers for a second. We have 30 trillion dollars, sorry.
The $ 30 trillion Optimus opportunity . The $ 10 trillion Cybertruck opportunity . Just these two together make up 40 trillion. Assuming, conservatively, that Tesla, okay, has 25% of that global market, Cybertrucks, I think it's going to be much larger, probably closer to 50-60%. But this results in 10 trillion in revenue.
And from there we can calculate some profit, okay? 40 trillion opportunities, 25% Tesla capture, 10 trillion revenue, 25% net profitability. Remember, a lot of these things they do are extremely high-margin businesses, which means 2 1/2 trillion in profits multiplied by a P/E of 13, which is incredibly low.
Incredibly low. The market cap is $32 trillion and we're back to our $8,000 per share. Very simple. And I'll emphasize again, I made that $8,000 8 ways to 8,000 almost 4 years ago, before most of this even existed, okay? So, here's how you get back to these numbers, and I know they sound crazy. Um, but maybe it will last a little longer than 2032, but either way, the speed at which things are changing in the world is astronomical.
Now back to your other question also about compression and everything else. Nvidia made about 198 billion in profit over the last 12 months, which is incredible. $0.2 trillion from one small company that is the largest company in the world because they make chips that enable artificial intelligence training.
That's all. Now, with a market cap of $5.6 trillion, you're paying about 28 times the return, compared to 70 times what it was a few years ago. So, there has been this margin compression, you are absolutely right. And we have other names. We have Amazon, which had the same trend many years ago, where people thought Amazon was expensive.
But what happens is that profits grow along with the valuation, and sometimes even far exceed it. And that's why Amazon has been generating huge profits for the past 22-24 years. And then there are names like Palantir. And yes, their price is still high compared to Nvidia and others, but they are aiming for much larger overall addressable markets, much, much, much larger.
Okay, we'll get to these general target markets in a second, and I'll break it down for you in even more detail. It seems like every question this week is related to each other, which is good. So remember, hold all these thoughts for now, and we'll move on to the next question. It's from Magical Machine.
I wonder what percentage of your total portfolio you dedicate each day will be allocated to Tesla and SpaceX? I know you are very convinced of both. If they eventually merge, would you have concerns about too much concentration in one ecosystem, or are you comfortable with Musk Industries being very broadly distributed ?
I've been following you since your first Bitcoin video and I've learned a lot about you. Yes, great. Thank you, Magical Machine. I like it, and GraphWeb thanks you too. Now, let's first do what I do when I invest. And I give kudos to Wayne Gretzky, I hung out with him at the AT&T Pro-Am golf tournament many years ago.
Super cool guy. But he always said he skated where the puck was, not where it was. Years earlier, in the 90s, I had also been to Toronto and seen him play. But back then I knew nothing about skating or hockey, or hockey as it's called in Canada. If you say "hockey", you will be killed. Hmm, but he was playing, and I didn't know the legend I was looking at.
Anyway, it's crazy how fast time flies. This is Wayne. And that always stuck with me, because when you invest, you have to invest where the world is going. And the world is changing very quickly, faster than ever before. And we have an industrial revolution that is many times greater than any historical industrial revolution of the past.
Next, I'll turn off the camera so you can see the full slide. I'm looking at general markets to look out for when buying the big heavy goods of the future. These are things like humanoid robots , enterprise applications from SpaceX, digital Optimus, robo-taxis, cyber-taxis, autonomous vehicles, software and services, batteries, AI-powered computing infrastructure, Elon's web services, energy storage , blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
This could go on and on , and on, and on. They were all huge multi-trillion dollar TAMs. In fact, they are so large that if you add them all up, the total TAM that I have carefully calculated is $75.8 trillion for Tesla and $28.5 trillion for SpaceX. Again, SpaceX's information comes from their S1 , and it's dominated by things like AI-based computing and a digital Optimus, which is similar to a physical Optimus.
And Tesla is just cyber taxis, energy storage, humanoid Optimus, all of these are huge, huge times. So, you analyze which industries are big in the future and then who is going to win those games. That's all. Also, returning to the question itself, these are the main positions. So I always emphasize that you create a bag of 80% of things and then trade around it using 20% of your position.
You take a few flyers, maybe you throw 1% of your portfolio into some big jump on something that could be doing well in 3 years, or it could go down to zero. But if you allocate your funds correctly, everything is fine. But your main positions should be very, very safe bets. They may not be the fastest horses, but they will also be a big part of the future .
That's where you keep most of your money, and I really like a very concentrated portfolio. When you hear people with 50, 60 or 100 stocks in their portfolio, they don't know how to manage a portfolio. This is absolutely absurd. You need to have a very concentrated portfolio in a very small number of winning stocks, and only 0.3% of assets will ever win.
Now let's get back to your question. If you have, let's say, a lot of Tesla, imagine you're 40% Tesla, you know, and you want to add some SpaceX, you don't have any, it's a brand new company, then try to get to 7% or 5% or whatever your risk tolerance is. Find the right balance, but it's up to you. It depends on your investment goals, your risk tolerance, when you need the money, what your timeframe is.
If you have 5 years to wait from now or even 3 years, that's okay. If you need the money in 6-12 months, you are not good with these assets . They are too volatile. And the question is, can you survive a 50% drop? As Warren Buffett always said, if you can't survive a 50% decline in an asset, you shouldn't invest in that asset.
"That's all." You are not ready for the market. So, this is concentration risk. Furthermore, the merger will happen. Plan for it. This will happen in 2027, 2028 . And that's when everything will come to unity, meaning the correlation between these two assets will come to unity. Tesla will have a big premium when they are acquired or merged.
We don't know what it is yet. But remember, it all depends on synergy. Crazy synergy between all areas, computing, global communications, cyber taxis, by the way, Austin has Starlink in the background. Uh, you have AI, battery storage, etc. And they're already working together, okay? And remember, these two tickers are not diversification.
They are the biggest bet on the future. And if you talk to the smartest investors in the world, and I've spent a lot of time talking to them at events like liquidity and so on, they've all been very focused on those two things for a reason, and they don't mind... " short-term volatility. But are they doing something like selling their SpaceX?
No. Are they selling their Tesla? No. Are they accumulating assets? Yes. The whole phrase was "go long ", Elon. Anyway, that's me. So, you play. You grow with your tolerance for risk. I play what I think are the greatest times on the planet, these things . This is where I want to be positioned. Do I need money today?
No, 5 years? No, 10 years? I don't know. We'll see, but that's pretty much how I play. How many? I think reaching 50% is normal. And remember, if these things explode the way we think they will, over time , that 50% of your portfolio , assuming everything else goes up 10% or 15 %, will quickly become 60% and 70 %, and that's normal when there's that much concentration, because you've listened to the legends of the past, they always say you have to have very few high- conviction assets in the basket and watch that basket very closely. I think Stanley Druckenmiller said that. I hope this helps.
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