저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라(TSLA)를 최고 확신 장기 보유 종목으로 주장. 발언자 포트폴리오는 안전 자산 80%(호들백), 고위험 20%(익스틱 트레이딩) 구조이며 테슬라는 2017년부터 보유. 비트코인과 MicroStrategy를 거쳐 AI·휴머노이드 로봇 테마로 순환해 왔다고 설명. 테슬라는 에너지 저장, 자율주행, 휴머노이드 로봇 등 거대 TAM을 가진 수직통합 기업으로 평가. 테슬라 비중 축소 조건은 더 큰 TAM을 가진 경쟁자 출현이라고 언급(다음 영상 예고).
다듬은 글
First one. First question kind of interesting is a double barrel question which I love. Two heavy hitting community questions. Ben you ask if Tesla remains the faster horse. Given this massive 50% allocation in our framework or if better sizing opportunities exist elsewhere. And Deket you follow with a clinical question.
What is the exact mathematical metric not a vibe? That would trigger a trim. To the long term core winner like Tesla. Let's break it down using objective data. These two questions are very important and I'm going to hammer home the way I operate. My goals are not your goals. I do this for sport and I do it because I enjoy it.
But I've also found out that my ways actually work. And they're based in data and mathematics. First rule of investing however. I'm going to break through the most important things. Okay, and shout out to Warren Buffett. Hope he's enjoying his retirement. First rule of investing never lose money. Rule number two, don't forget rule number one.
The reason this is important. People look at shiny things across the room and get excited and go chase them like a little cat chasing ribbon on a string. Don't ever do that. Don't ever do that. You need to get into solid positions. And be patient. Do your homework. Identify the winners. And yes, there is record levels of Elon derangement syndrome right now.
Around the SpaceX IPO and everything else. And as usual we're in the most hated assets. But in time. I have never been more confident in anything. So that's rule number one. Rule number two. Very important. And I want people to understand this. This one and those of you who have been around for 5 years since I started this, this is important, okay?
I have what's called a hoddle bag. It's 80% built up of safe things, compounders, that you build, and you sit on, and you wait. Okay, my first Tesla position was in 2017. Coincidentally, my first Bitcoin position was in 2017, also. But, this is very important. You can play in the markets, but I like to do it in a Pareto efficient way.
I like safe security, things like real estate, hoddle bag, etc. That stuff isn't subject to the gyrations in the market. Yes, the values may go up and down, but I build my hoddle bag with my 20% exotic trading bag. Think tigers and lions and all that good stuff in there. Very exotic, very high-risk plays.
No meme coins, even though meme coin showed up in the AI graphic. Ignore meme coins. I've never touched a meme coin. Don't know anything about them. But, and then, when I make the gains on the exotic trades, I rotate them into hoddle. And that can also include things like leaps. I buy a lot of leaps on things that are cheap, and then I convert those leaps into stocks that go into the hoddle bag.
Okay, the third part. This is very important. I have I do everything I I you know what I call this? I call this my money market. So, for example, from 2017 to 2021, all excess cash I had I stored in Bitcoin. That was my money market. Okay, that's my parking, safe place to park cash, etc. And then, [sighs and gasps]
Bitcoin, you know, back then I was interested in the scarcity, and I knew it would go up. It was so cheap. Um a lot of buys in 3,000, 4,000, 9,000 dollar range, to 12,000 dollar range, etc. And it's been good. But, it hasn't been good lately. But, in 2022 to 2024, my focus was MicroStrategy. I wanted amplified Bitcoin.
I believed in the treasury strategy. I believed in Michael Saylor. And my average price for MicroStrategy is 16 bucks. And it went to 450. And we had a 10-for-1 stock split, and all sorts of craziness happened. And then, you know, as usual, people chase People are buying MicroStrategy in 2025, and they got the bucks hundreds then.
We'll get back to that in a minute, too, as well. And then from 2024 onwards, it was the rotation. Again, another rotation into a safer thing that I believed was bigger. That was real-world AI, baby AGI, autonomy, humanoid robots, etc. And then we had the AI revolution as well, and that's the i13 is there.
So, that is kind of the way I think. Now, people will ask, "What's next? [clears throat] What is that going to happen in 2027, maybe 2028?" I already have an answer for that, and there's a video for that on Monday. But, that's the important ways to think about how I roll. Okay? But, it's important as well to be in position early and not chase.
We'll spend some time talking about that. Now, back to the questions. Why Why Tesla? Why Tesla? Well, why is it such a high conviction? Because nobody Nobody is going after this whole space, all the largest total addressable markets on the planet, with complete vertical integration and manufacturing prowess, and data, data centers, and AI, and intelligence, etc.
Nobody even remotely close. Okay? We're talking energy storage, we're talking self-driving cars, talking humanoid robots. And now people are saying, "Where is the Optimus 3? We haven't seen it yet." Well, they want to wait. They don't want to share it before they can get the scale production up and running, or else the Chinese will copy it, you know.
They'll never be able to copy it, but they'll try to mimic it. Anyway, each of these are multi-trillion dollar markets. And back to the other question is what could derail my Tesla thesis? And that's That's coming tomorrow's video. What would make me trim Tesla? A larger TAM hunter is the short answer.
I'll break it all down in tomorrow's video. It's been a fun weekend working as usual. Anyway, isn't that a song working on the weekend as usual? Name that track. Anyhow, that is the play. That's how I roll. And it's worked very well for me so far. But you have to do an inordinate amount of time and research needs to be invested to make sure you are in position before things kick off. [bell]
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