저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아의 2026회계연도(영상 기준 2025년) EPS 추정치가 90일간 $23.76→$30.24로 상향되어 주가 목표를 기존 $950~1,025에서 $1,300~1,500으로 상향. 기준 PE 75.8, 현재가 약 $899. PE가 50 수준으로 낮아지는 것을 기본 시나리오로 가정하며, AI 성장률 둔화와 경쟁 리스크를 언급. 과거 대비 상승 전망이 주요 논지.
다듬은 글
hey everyone in this video I'm going to be updating where I think nvidia's stock price could be by the end of 20125 my previous prediction for where nvidia's stock price could be for 2025 needs to be updated because of the new information that's come out regarding nvidia's stock necessitates an upgrade to nvidia's stock price prediction we've got earnings per share upgrades we've got changes in the multiples valuation and I recently did a video which I'll link to at the end of this one where I upgraded my Nvidia 2024 stock price prediction so my previous stock price prediction for NVIDIA in 2025 I now expect that to happen in 2024 if you already saw that video so in this one I'm going to update my 2025 price prediction s nvidia's next year earnings per share estimate now analysts on Wall Street think Nvidia is going to deliver $30.24 in earnings per share next year for us that's 2025 for NVIDIA that's 2026 annoyingly companies are allowed to have fiscal years that differ from calendar years so even though we're in calendar year 2024 Nvidia is in its fiscal year 2025 so next year when we're in calendar year 2025 Nvidia will be in fiscal year 2026 so that will confuse things but I'll try and remind you as many times as possible in this video because I get confused with this thing as well I think it's annoying I think all companies should be on a fiscal year that is equal to the calendar year but I understand the difference because the actual reality on the ground the actual business may be structured in a different way that necessitates having a different fiscal year so now that I've went on that tangent let's get back to this prediction so the $30.24 estimate for 2026 as you'll notice has been upgraded several times in the last 90 days from $23.76 90 days ago up to $24 60 days ago up to $24.70 30 days ago and then a big jump to $29.85 7 days ago and then another jump to $30.24 today so you can see why I need to upgrade my Nvidia stock price prediction that I made a little over one month ago because these numbers have increased by so much that it changes my outlook for the stock price because the earnings per share estimate is a major component in my stock price prediction for Nvidia stock now you'll have noticed if you saw this video where I did my uh stock price prediction for NVIDIA this was my update so I've already updated this will be my second update I'm doing on my Nvidia stock price prediction that's how rapidly this stock price is moving higher now I did Place Nvidia stock as one of my top 24 stocks to buy in 2024 to Signal how bullish I've been on Nvidia stock all year long and so in this stock price prediction I suggested that nvidia's stock price would be between $950 per share to $1,025 per share by the end of 2025 well I recently upgraded my 2024 prediction to suggest that's where the stock price will be by the end of this year so I need to upgrade my next year forecast to be higher than where I think it's going to be this year because I do think the stock price is going to be higher both by the end of this year and by the end of next year so I also need nvidia's current share price which right now is at $899 per share that's up significantly in the current year but it's also up significantly in the last two years and three years and 5 years and 10 years Nvidia stock price has just been soaring the business continues to innovate and upgrade itself make itself more useful in more Industries and I don't see an end to that anytime soon the competition is at least at least one step behind if not more if you want to take a more realistic look I think the competition is probably two steps behind Nvidia in the gpus for artificial intelligence I also need nvidia' stands at 75.8 75.
08 so now that we have the major inputs we can go to our valuation model if nvidia's earnings per share comes in at $30.24 as predicted for 2026 and the price to earnings ratio stays at 75 the stock price could end up at $2,268 per share by the end of the year if nothing else changes if all else Remains the Same you can see the potential for Nvidia stock here currently is trading at $900 per share so that would be a huge increase from where it's at today although I'll be honest I don't think that's my base case scenario I don't think that's the most probable outcome I think the most probable outcome is a PE ratio of a lower amount than 75 for Nvidia stock remember right now it's prospects for growth are excellent for this year and next year because we're in the initial stages of the AI boom after after this year and next year AI is still going to be growing the AI Market is still going to be growing for I feel at least two decades but it's just not going to be growing at the rate that it's been growing this year and next year so it's going to slow down and as that rate of growth slows down I think the premium valuation for Nvidia stock goes down so where could it go down to well if it falls to a PE of 60 then the stock price could be $1,814 per share if it falls to a PE of 50 then the stock price could be $1,500 per share and if it falls to a PE of 40 the stock price could be $1,200 per share so interestingly even in a scenario where its PE Falls from 75 all the way down to 40 which is a big drop in a PE ratio the stock price will still be up by roughly $300 or 33% over the next two years so even in a downside scenario you still got upside in Nvidia stock NOW there could be worst case scenarios like if the PE Falls to 20 then the stock price could fall to 600 which would be down from the current price of $900 this scenario while there is a nonzero chance of it happening I don't think it's very likely I don't think the PE Ratio will fall by all this much unless there's a big disaster surrounding Nvidia stock more export restrictions that are way more uh detrimental than they are right now and demand for the market falling perhaps a competitor coming in and taking significant market share taking a Leap Forward like you know right now I mentioned Nvidia is two steps ahead if there's a competitor that that jumps in let's say AMD comes out with some Innovative GPU that takes two steps forward or three steps forward and leaps Nvidia right you can IM imagine how unlikely that scenario is for a competitor in this difficult Cutting Edge technology to just jump ahead by three steps and get ahead of Nvidia that could be a disaster that drops its PE down so there are some factors that could hurt Nvidia but for the most probable scenario I would say is a PE of around 50 by the end of next year and my updated stock price prediction from the previous prediction of 950 to 1,25 I'm upgrading that prediction to between $1,300 per share to $1,500 per share so I'm increasing my prediction my price prediction by roughly 30% from my previous forecast so a meaningful upgrade from my previous forecast for Nvidia stock price which at the time I thought was extremely bullish and now it's even that much more than where it's at right now so that's my prediction let me know your thoughts in the comment section below
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