저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 2030년까지 주당 약 $300~350 수준이 될 것으로 전망. 2025년 EPS는 하향 추세인 $4.6 수준으로 보고, 향후 5년 EPS 성장률을 10~13%로 가정. 현재 포워드 PER 약 40배는 프리미엄으로 자율주행·로보틱스 등 기술 기대가 반영된 것이라고 설명. 현재 주가 약 $170 대비 상승을 예상하지만 2021년 고점 $400 이상에는 못 미칠 것으로 봄. 1,000~2,000달러 장기 전망은 비현실적이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
hey everyone of course Tesla stock is one that nearly every investor has an opinion on either for or against bullish or bearish Tesla stock generates strong opinions in this video what I'll do is I'll do some forecasting and project where I think Tesla stock price could be by the year 2030 so let's take a look at this interesting analysis and come up with several scenarios of where Tesla stock price could be by 2030 estimation is $170 189 per share down significantly off its highs of over $400 per share reached in 2021 I'm also going to need Tesla' stands at 4019 4.19 all right I also need Tesla's earnings per share estimate for 2025 you can see that number there at $46 that's up from $2.99 expected in 2024 each of these estimates you can see has been getting downgraded over recent months 90 days ago analyst on Wall Street thought Tesla was going to deliver $4.9 in earnings per share in 2025 then they decreased that to $4.90 they decreased it further to $419 decreasing it further to $48 and then the current estimate is $46 I wouldn't be surprised if this estimate continues to move lower as as more and more information is coming in showing just how tepid consumer demand is for electric vehicles and companies like Tesla just today announced that they're pausing or decreasing I should say production in their electric vehicles Tesla's not the only one Tesla's followed by companies like Fisker rivan Ford GM and others that have all either Lowered Expectations or kept increasing or kept the increase in production flat or muted for electric vehicles as there just isn't demand right there just isn't demand for all the electric vehicles that are being produced today there's just too much production of electric vehicles so I think the industry is making prudent Decisions by decreasing the number of vehicles they're outputting don't produce so many right so that you don't have to keep slashing prices to generate sales if you produce fewer Vehicles you don't have to cut prices by as much and along with Tesla's pause or decrease in production they've also announced price increases surprisingly so I I think that's a more prudent strategy you know you you're already producing too many electric vehicles to begin with stop increasing that and just keep your prices constant or increase prices and focus on profitability focus on profitability at least until consumer demand increases at least until the infrastructure to support electric vehicles warrants an increase in supply of electric vehicles okay I also need Tesla's next 5 years earnings per share growth estimate and according to the analyst that are following following Tesla stock they think Tesla's go at 10.31% interestingly that's going to be slower earnings growth for Tesla for the next 5 years compared to the S&P 500 which is expected to grow earnings per share at 11.13% for the next 5 years so Tesla is going to be a slower than average earnings grower over the next 5 years after the past 5 years it grew earnings per share at 70% so it's history it's not going to repeat itself over the next 5 years that is according to Wall Street analyst that follow Tesla stock and I agree with the Wall Street analyst that Tesla's growth in earnings per share over the next 5 years is not going to be anywhere near where it was in the past 5 years now that competition has entered into the EV space and there's choice for consumers in which EVS they buy and an increase in supply of Legacy vehicles I don't think earnings per share is going to grow by all that much for Tesla I think 10% might be a little bit too conservative I think it'll grow a little bit faster than 10% per year but I don't think it'll approach anything near where it was in the past 5 years so now that we have those estimates let me draw your attention down here to the bottom leftand corner where I've drawn out an earnings per share forecast so if Tesla's earnings per share does come in at $46 at 2025 and the earnings per share grows at 10.31% for the next 6 years for an earnings per share in the year 2031 of 7 $1.32 that happens after I apply a 10.31 growth rate to the $46 earnings per share that will get you to a $732 earnings per share for 2031 if you want to see the formula I've applied you can see that all the way up here on the top leftand corner so then you have the earnings per share 2031 of $732 if you apply the forward price to earnings of 4019 you'll get a stock price of $29 $93.99 per share by the end of 2030 now that would be a solid increase from the current price per share of $171 but it still won't approach the highs of over $400 it reached in late 2021 which I think will disappoint many Tesla stock investors who are hoping for and expecting much more significant price increases I've heard price increases of $1,000 per share and $2,000 per share forecasted by 2034 Tesla stock those forecasts I think are unrealistic especially the $22,000 per share forecast I think is unrealistic even even if Tesla achieves driverless car technology I don't think the $2,000 per share forecast is realistic for Tesla stock so if those numbers stay the same then Tesla stock price will reach $293 per share if the forward price to earnings were to increase then Tesla's 250 then Tesla stock price could reach 365 $5 per share but if the PE were to fall to 30 then Tesla's stock price could be more modest at$ 219 or even if the PE were to fall to 20 then Tesla's stock price could fall to 146 and I will highlight even at a forward price to earnings of 20 which would be half of where Tesla stock is trading at now this would still be three times the PE ratio of companies like Ford GM and stellantis so even at half its current valuation Tesla would still be trading at nearly triple the price of Ford GM and stellantis that's how expensive Tesla stock is right now compared to the Legacy automakers so a lot of this excellent Prospect is already built into Tesla's valuation is trading at a forward PE of 40 right compared to single digits for Ford GM and stellantis so that premium valuation is there for a reason and that reason is because investors are expecting Tesla to deliver significant technological advances in the areas of of driverless car technology maybe robotics maybe other services where it generates a better profit margin and better valuation than where it is now which is primarily a car company with some energy and some Services sales included but primarily a car company so it's already incorporating that into this valuation so my estimate my most probable estimate for where Tesla stock price could be by 2030 is somewhere in the range of $300 per share and $350 per share so somewhere Above This current expectation and partly I think it's because the earnings per share I think is going to grow at a faster rate if we put it at a 12% growth rate or if I put it at a 133% growth rate that'll get me to a valuation of $339 per share for 2030 in that range of 3350 I suggested I think that's the most probable outcome for Tesla stock by the end of
Comments 0