저자: KevinHanks/출연자소속은제목·설명기준SchwabNetwork,나머지패널미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준의장이 로드아일랜드 연설에서 주식이 '상당히 높게 평가됐다(fairly highly valued)'고 언급해 시장이 소폭 약세로 반응. 파월은 인플레이션 위험과 약화되는 고용시장을 함께 저울질하며 추가 금리 인하가 데이터에 따라 달라진다고 발언. 주택시장은 모기지 금리 하락으로 매수·재융자 신청이 증가(재융자 주간 +8%, 전년비 +42%). 이번 주 신규주택판매·GDP·PCE·실업수당청구 발표 예정이며 시장은 연준의 2차례 추가 인하를 기대.
다듬은 글
Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE prebell playbook. We're pretty busy getting ready for more uh comments and we had Fed speak yesterday from Jay Powell. Some of your thoughts. Well, you know, the market was looking a a bit fatigued to start with. Uh but then Jerome Powell came up to the podium in Rhode Island and basically here's the three words that everyone's talking about this morning from his speech.
He said stocks are fairly highly valued. And so that's the term that's the phrase that uh I think made the market weaken and sell off slightly on the downside. wasn't significant sell-off, but it certainly uh didn't help the overall market. He also talked about the economic picture. You know, he talked about weighing o overall inflation risk with the weakening weakening labor market.
Uh he thought rate cuts, you know, lower future rate cuts aren't a a a given. It'll it'll depend on the data. He talked about inflation. He talked about, like I said, tariffs and their their uh role on inflation, but all things considered, he did the basically uh his version of the irrational exuberance speech when he said fairly highly valued for stocks and that caused bit of uncertainty in the overall market.
Nicole, yeah, I think all us old heads really appreciated the irrational exuberance comparison. It certainly was our moment. Um, I thought that was interesting this morning as well, Mary Dailyaly today, right? Yes. More Fed speakers like a like we've been talking about a kind of a consistent theme for this week is lots and lots of Fed speakers.
Only Mary Daly on the on the uh docket today, but that that doesn't mean Scott Bessant has made some comments this morning uh on television that are making headlines. So yeah, th there'll be a lot of commentary I think from not only Fed speakers but the Trump administration as well on the overall market and the market will have to as usual consume and digest just that.
Nicole, yeah understood. I mean we think about the housing market. Last week we saw mortgage apps getting a jump. Also um refies got a jump uh as we saw rates come down. What are we looking at here? Good news. More good news from mortgage applications uh this morning. The purchases up.3%. Not as big as the numbers that we've seen the last couple weeks.
Remember la uh last week purchases up 2.9%. This week up.3 but over the last 12 months up 18%. Refinances remember last week they were up 24.4%. Uh this week up8 but up 42% year-over-year. Here's the here's the thing. Rates continue to move to the downside. Conforming loans with 86,500 or less, the rate there moved from 6.39 to 6.34.
Jumbo loan balances 86,500 and above. Went from 6.48% to 6.44. So rates are inching you lower away from 7% moving now towards 6%. So, we'll see what that does to the market. Remember, in about an hour or so, we'll get new home sales expected to go from 652,000 pretty close. 649 650 is what they're looking for there.
So, we get existing home sales tomorrow morning. So, yeah, a bit of housing data for midweek, Nicole. Yeah. And then GDP and PCE later in the week, jobless claims. So, we're waiting on all of that because everybody's expecting two more cuts from the Fed. And obviously we know the Fed's going to be somewhat data dependent.
They say they're data dependent. So we'll see. Kevin Hanks, thank you so much. Great to see you this morning.
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