저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 달러 구매력 급락과 지속적 통화 발행으로 금 가격의 명목 기준 상승 추세가 이어진다고 봄. 금은 5,500달러 과매수 후 조정 국면이며 4,000달러대에서 반등 중이나 추가 상승은 확실치 않다고 언급. 통화 발행은 채권 가격 폭락과 금리 상승을 낳아 자산에 부정적이며, 주식·상업용 부동산은 실질 구매력을 잃을 수 있음. AI 설비투자 붐은 단기 성장 요인이지만 장기 금융 불안정성을 키움. 미국 정부의 자산 동결과 정치적 리스크로 자산 분산 필요성을 강조.
다듬은 글
expected that the purchasing power of gold would be maintained, I did not expect the purchasing power of the dollar to drop so sharply in such a short period of time . I never imagined the price of gold would rise to $5,500 . The current $5,500 level was likely a temporary overbought condition , and it has since entered a correction phase.
In my opinion, given the current situation where central banks have no other option but to issue currency—that is, where there are no politically painful alternatives other than monetary expansion—it is highly likely that currency issuance will continue. Because it is very difficult to implement tight monetary policies, central banks will continue to issue currency, and in this environment, the price of gold is expected to rise against nominal currency .
Mark Faber points out that the surge in gold prices against the dollar is an unexpected phenomenon and demonstrates that the purchasing power of fiat currency has declined sharply . Considering that the price of gold rose to $5,500 before entering a correction phase , Faber analyzes that the long-term trend is still upward.
He argues that continuous currency issuance is inevitable because central banks are facing politically painful options other than monetary expansion . Under these circumstances, Faber expects the purchasing power of gold to continue rising relative to banknotes . Now, please watch Mark Faber's interview video.
If you subscribe to New Metal Moves, you can receive the latest information on precious metals, economic trends, and wealth growth opportunities every day . Stay ahead of changes in the financial market and do not miss out on important information that drives the market . I believe that the next crisis cannot be resolved by printing money, and that tremendous chaos and confusion will occur, making debt repayment impossible .
In particular, the U.S. government's debt will not be repaid . And after or during such a situation, people will exchange goods and services in units with specific intrinsic value . For example, just like how a pack of cigarettes becomes currency in a concentration camp . yes . This is because there are no banknotes .
In situations where they have no money to trade, prisoners can trade with things like cigarettes or Mars chocolates . Do you understand ? Or a bottle of Coca-Cola becomes currency . And I think gold, silver, and platinum coins will acquire the status of currency . In fact, it still holds the status of currency.
But you can't take 1 ounce of gold to a department store in Thailand or Switzerland and ask them to exchange it for other gold coins, can you? You understand, right? Because I do n't have any change. However, in the future, an era will come where life can be bought with gold coins. It is not the scenario I hope for, but it is highly likely to happen.
Even if not in my lifetime, it might be possible after you are still alive. Because you look young. Seeing the Fed print money makes me less inclined to buy bonds . This is because the Fed's printing of money eventually leads to inflation . It isn't always the case, but it eventually affects our cost of living , and we call that inflation.
When signs of money printing appear in the stock market, it is called a bull market, and when they appear in the real estate market, it is called a real estate bull market. However, when the prices of bread, butter, olive oil, and daily necessities rise, we call it inflation. In any case, printing money ultimately leads not to a rise in bond prices, but to a crash in bond prices and a rise in the cost of living.
And that is exactly where the function of the central bank bailout ends. By that point , the central bank will have to print more money because the bond market will fall sharply . It means that they have to print more and more money to buy bonds whose value is falling . This causes interest rates to rise sharply, and eventually, rising interest rates have a negative impact on assets.
So, I am saying that even if money is printed, the price of gold may not eventually rise. The price of gold fell from 5,500 to around 4,000 and is rebounding, but it is not certain whether it will rise further . At least I don't think so . Other people think we have entered a bull market again, but I am not convinced.
However, even if I am not sure, I want to hold onto gold. Then, how should you hold gold? In which jurisdiction, and where should it be kept? Various questions arise, such as these. If you look at the global money supply or the US money supply, it is actually increasing rapidly. If the money supply had been insufficient , that is, if the government had implemented a tight monetary policy, the stock market would not have risen.
The stock market would have been lower than it is now , the dollar would have been strong, and the economy would have weakened . However, thanks to currency issuance, people were able to borrow money virtually without limit, triggering a capital expenditure boom related to artificial intelligence investment .
Therefore, there are both good and bad aspects here. In my opinion, while the negative aspects will outweigh the positive ones in the long term , in the short term, currency issuance can stimulate the economy and help fuel the capital expenditure boom we are experiencing in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and related sectors, such as semiconductor manufacturing and data center construction .
Let's take commercial real estate in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Baltimore, Chicago, and New York as examples . The price has dropped due to structural changes . This is because technological advancements have enabled people to conduct business from home . I run an investment business , and 50 years ago, to work in the financial services industry, you had to be in a financial hub such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, London, or Zurich .
However, now, with just a computer and the Internet, you can conduct financial business in remote places just as effectively as you would in financial centers like Wall Street or Broad Street in New York. Do you understand? The world economic geography has changed due to the Internet. As a result, the value of some commercial buildings in the United States dropped by as much as 80% .
Vancouver may not have had as much overconstruction as other cities , but I think commercial buildings in all city centers were not good investment opportunities, especially since they were financed when interest rates were artificially low . Now, as interest rates rise, the profitability of such investments has decreased or disappeared entirely .
Therefore, printing money is not always helpful. Investors think that printing money will make the stock market rise, but that is not true. Secondly, even if nominal stock prices rise, real value may decrease if the inflation rate is higher than the stock price rate or if the value of the currency falls .
Therefore, the stock value may effectively decline. Mark Faber warns that ceaseless currency issuance could lead to a severe debt crisis, a collapse of the bond market, interest rate hikes, and persistent inflation . He argues that during a period of financial turmoil, the monetary importance of gold, silver, and platinum may rise again, while stocks and commercial real estate may substantially lose their purchasing power .
Faber also emphasizes that investments in technology and AI are reshaping the economic landscape , and that excessive liquidity is causing both short-term growth and long-term financial instability . Let's return to the interview. Investors buy stocks based on the belief that currency issuance will always drive the stock market up , but this is not true.
Secondly, even if the nominal stock price rises, the actual value may decrease . This is because the inflation rate is greater than the stock market growth rate or the currency depreciation rate . Therefore, the stock value may effectively decline . This is a very good question. How is real value measured?
It may not be useful if converted to another currency . This is because the currency itself can also lose value . So, I think measuring with gold is one way to adjust the value of all items, whether it be wine, stocks, or bonds . It is adjusted based on the price of gold , and the actual value can be converted into the price of gold .
I believe I have never anticipated any price fluctuations I have experienced in my life . You understand, right? First of all, we cannot know when the market will rebound. Events occur that signal a market rebound , meaning they suggest the end of a bear or bull market, but it is impossible to know exactly when the rebound will happen.
Of course, we expected that the purchasing power of gold would be maintained, but we did not expect the purchasing power of the dollar to drop so significantly in such a short period . I never thought the price of gold would drop to $5,500 . You are likely aware that it has entered a correction phase after being temporarily overbought at $5,500 .
In 1999, the price of gold was $253 per ounce , but it fell to $1,921 in 2008, and then dropped to $1,500, or even near $1,000, in 2009 . And it went up again. As such, the market exhibits stepwise movements . The price surges, corrects, rises again, and repeats this process. In my opinion, given the current situation where central banks have no other option but to print money—although there are certainly other methods— that choice would be very painful in a democratic country .
Therefore, it is very difficult to implement a tight monetary policy . Ultimately, central banks will continue to print money , and in this environment, it is highly likely that the price of gold will continue its relative upward trend compared to banknotes. What are your thoughts on oil ? Do n't you think the prices of wheat, corn, and soybeans will definitely rise higher than gold?
However, generally speaking, if the goal is to preserve purchasing power, I still think that investing in gold is desirable . I am not sure if this is contradictory, but looking at the United States objectively, considering that the current and previous administrations froze assets from other countries , I question whether holding assets in the U.S.
is truly the right choice. For example, countries like Kazakhstan, Russia, China, India, and Indonesia would absolutely not hold assets in the United States. Even from China's perspective, investing all assets in the U.S. is a foolish thing to do. Under the current administration, the United States feels like a fascist state .
Trump mixes personal interests with the interests of the state and private companies, just like a dictator of a Third World banana republic . It’s like saying, "Okay, let’s do business with this person," if you like someone. The U.S. government and Western democracies control nearly 50% of the economy .
They have immense power. You can say, while signing a contract, "Daryl, you're a decent guy. Would you do us a job? We'll pay you a million dollars a day, even for nothing ." You understand, right? It means that you can provide subsidies to companies you like and drive companies you don't like out of business .
It can be described as essentially a socialist way of doing business . Of course, the alternative is to move toward a socialist system as advocated by Kamala Harris, nationalizing key industries and shrinking the private sector . In other words, it is shrinking the private sector at the expense of the government sector .
These are the two alternatives. As I mentioned, the current U.S. government is closer to a banana republic-like government system. He looks just like a crazy, foolish dictator straight out of a comic book. That is exactly what the U.S. government looks like today . Mark Faber argues that in times of currency instability, gold is a more clear measure of real purchasing power than currency, stocks, or bonds .
He predicts that as tight monetary policy becomes politically difficult, central banks will continue to expand the money supply, which could raise the value of gold against banknotes. Faber also warns that geopolitical asset freezes, increased government influence, and financial market intervention could cause countries and investors to reconsider where to hold assets and increase demand for currency alternatives such as physical gold .
Please leave your opinions on this analysis in the comments below . If you found this video informative and entertaining, please press the subscribe button and turn on notifications. You can receive the latest new without missing out. Thank you for watching Metal Moves . I will see you in the next video .
Comments 0