저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
페이버는 부채 증가와 고금리로 이자 부담이 커지고 있으며, 통화 팽창이 지속되면 금이 가치저장 수단이 된다고 주장한다. 개인은 금을 조금씩 매달 사 모아야 한다고 권한다. 다만 금 가격 상승은 확신하지 않고 다른 자산보다 덜 떨어질 수 있다는 입장이다. 자산시장 버블은 언젠가 꺼질 것이며, 반도체·AI 관련 주식이 가장 크게 떨어질 것으로 본다. 정부가 개인의 금 소유를 제한할 위험도 언급한다. 1982년 다우 저점 이후 상승 랠리가 끝날 것이라는 장기 관점도 제시한다.
다듬은 글
The cost of debt service is rising very quickly as debt increases and interest rates are higher than, say, 5-10 years ago. Debt levels exploded, and this was possible while interest rates were falling because interest payments were not increasing. You should be your own central bank and store some gold yourself.
This is documented in my books, my writings, and my interviews. I have always advised people to buy a little gold every month and I continue to do so, but I am not sure that gold will increase in price, however, it may fall in price less than other assets. Marc Faber warns that rapid debt growth and higher interest rates are making public debt servicing increasingly expensive.
As debt levels rise, interest payments can become a serious financial burden. Faber believes that people should act as their own central bank by regularly accumulating physical gold. While he doesn't guarantee gold prices will rise, he argues that gold can depreciate less than other assets during a major economic downturn, offering solid portfolio protection.
Now we will show excerpts from an interview with Marc Faber. Subscribe to Now -building opportunities. Stay one step ahead of financial changes and don't miss important market alerts. Well, one event that is definitely going to happen, but we don't know the sequence, is that after this period of monetary inflation that we've had over the last 40 years, just remember: in 1982, the Dow Jones low was around 800, at 780.
And it's been going up ever since. This bull market in assets will come to an end. There is no doubt about that . We don't know exactly when this will happen . It could be tomorrow, or maybe in 5 or even 10 years, but one way or another it will happen. And then asset owners should ask themselves: Mark is known as a pessimist and has been so all his life, so don't believe him, but just in case, what if he was right at least once in his life?
Then perhaps we should think about how to lose the least, because we are all asset owners. We hold stocks, real estate, cash, bonds, collectibles, wines, etc., as well as precious metals. So, how can we lose as little as possible? And then, of course, we will think about investing in safe companies and so on.
Yes. It's certainly possible, but people should also remember that in many cases throughout history, the government has simply taken everything from you. All. Think of the rich people who lived in 19th century Russia. The revolution of 1918 came . They lost everything. And the Eastern Europeans, when World War II came.
And the communist regimes after 1945, after the Germans lost the war, lost everything. Including Germans on the eastern side of Germany. And in Shanghai in 1949, when the communists came, Shanghai was probably the richest city and the most economically significant in Asia outside of Tokyo until the start of World War II.
The bond market in America is generally very healthy, as it is still the largest fixed income market in the world, and people can buy and sell Treasury securities at any time, etc. Now, of course, the question is what will happen to interest rates and what will happen to the underlying inflation rate.
I mean, let's say the government says inflation is 3.8%. The first question you should ask yourself is: since the government lies about everything, why wouldn't they lie about the rising cost of living? Because they are interested in making it look attractive so that they don't have to pay higher and higher interest rates.
Secondly, adjustments to pension funds, annual adjustments to social security. They want to keep interest rates low, and they want to keep inflation rates low. So we have to ask ourselves: are these numbers plausible or not? And I know several, not just one, economists who calculate an inflation rate that is significantly higher than what the government publishes.
Their inflation rate using the old cost of living calculation methods is much higher. It is , they say, from 8 to 11%. I insist that your family has a different inflation rate than mine because you may have young children. They go to kindergarten in New York or to American universities, and you may have a sister, brother, wife, or child who has serious health problems, and healthcare in the United States and other countries is extremely expensive.
Anyway , what I'm trying to say is that it's very difficult to measure the increase in the cost of living, but I would say that you can look at how much you spend and how much prices are going up, and I admit that I'm amazed when I go to a supermarket, a department store, or a store like Home Depot or Lowe's and buy household goods, you know, a refrigerator, a TV, a washing machine, or something.
I'm amazed at how much the prices have dropped. Marc Faber warns that a decade of asset booms fueled by monetary inflation will eventually reach a tipping point. Stocks, real estate, bonds, and other assets could experience a major revaluation during the next major crisis. Faber also cites historical examples of political upheavals destroying private wealth, and questions whether official inflation figures reflect the real cost of living.
Investors, he believes, should carefully consider how to protect wealth as economic and monetary regimes change. Let's get back to the interview. Monetary inflation is a gift for gold prices. An even bigger gift to gold prices is a fool or a buffoon like Mr. Trump, and a pompous and ignorant Treasury Secretary like Mr.
Bessant. Mr. Varsh is not necessarily an academic, which is very useful for gold, because he is actually a well-educated economist. This is what I have to say. I read his speeches and his articles. He is very knowledgeable in economics, and not just modern economists , he understands the theory of classical economists from Adam Smith to Hayek, von Mises, Schumpeter, etc.
And he knows that printing money is disastrous in the long run. And theoretically he would like to raise interest rates, but now he's a politician . Will he be able to do it? He can, but he may come under a lot of pressure from his colleagues, from the Ministry of Finance. The Treasury Department is actually praying for lower interest rates, because at this rate level, we're not even talking about an increase.
The cost of debt service is rising very quickly as debt is growing and interest rates are higher than, say, 8-10 years ago. So we had no problems, and we had all these economists who say debt doesn't matter, you know, modern monetary theories, absurd theories. But in a bull market, people believe in everything, even the absurd.
Debt levels exploded, and this was possible while interest rates were falling because interest payments were not increasing. But once interest rates started rising after August 2020, it became burdensome, and now it is the largest item of expenditure at $1.1 trillion per year— interest on the national debt.
Now interest on the public debt could theoretically be deflationary. But if you print money, of course it's extremely inflationary. And in such an environment, gold is a store of value. And for the last 40 years I have been advocating that central banks can no longer be trusted. You should be your own central bank and store some gold yourself.
This is documented in my books, my writings, and my interviews; I have always encouraged people to buy a little gold every month, and I continue to do so. But I'm not sure that gold will go up, but it may fall less than other assets. You know, if I had to make a list of what would fall the most when the bubble bursts, I would put semiconductor stocks and stocks related to artificial intelligence on it.
Many of these companies will go bankrupt. And gold will remain, but as you know, there is always a risk that the government, especially under someone like Mr. Trump, will say, "Well, gold is good, but private ownership of it is unpatriotic ." That is, the government can own gold, but individuals are prohibited from doing so.
You see, if the government was able to lock down the population during COVID, and the population accepted it, they agreed to be locked down and forcibly vaccinated. They've all accepted it, so they probably won't do anything if the government comes and says, " Sorry, we have to take your gold." We pay for it." "We'll give you dollars that we'll print." We could issue freshly printed dollar bills with Mr.
Trump's signature, because by then America will be called Trumpland. Have we had any economic development at all? Perhaps all this was only nominal. We have created the illusion of wealth, but in reality we have not become richer than before . We are poor. Certainly, if you look at the world in the 1950s and 1960s and look at the world today.
In the 50s or 1960, I can say with confidence that the US was well ahead of anyone else in the world. Much ahead. I look at the world today. I'm not sure the US is currently significantly ahead of everyone else, because there are societies , such as Singapore, that may be richer than the US per capita.
I am not taking into account countries like Qatar or Dubai, which are special cases where there may be a temporary boom or increase in prosperity. But societies like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and some cities in China may already be ahead of the US. Marc Faber argues that continued monetary inflation and rising government debt could create a strong long-term environment for gold.
As debt servicing costs rise, policymakers may face pressure to keep interest rates low and expand the money supply. Faber views physical gold as a store of value and encourages investors to accumulate it regularly. He also warns that speculative AI and semiconductor stocks could suffer serious losses if the current asset bubble eventually bursts. reviews of the gold, silver , cryptocurrency, .
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