Warren Buffett - How to Invest in Index Funds

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버핏은 대부분의 투자자에게 저비용 광범위 인덱스펀드(S&P500)를 권하며, 수수료를 최소화하고 한꺼번에 투자하지 말고 20~30년에 걸쳐 분할 투자하라고 설명한다. 인덱스펀드 선택 기준: 광범위한 지수를 고르고, 비용(수수료)에 특히 주의해야 한다. 기관 운용 펀드들은 총수익은 비슷하지만 비용 차이로 순수익이 달라진다는 것이 그의 논리다. 추천 도서: John Bogle(보글)의 최근 5년 내 출간 책들을 펀드 투자 전에 읽어야 한다고 권한다. 시장 타이밍에 대한 견해: 버핏은 자신도 승자 종목과 승부 시점을 고르는 데 능하지 않다고 인정하며, 그래서 인덱스 투자와 분할 매수가 적합하다고 본다. 밸류에이션 지표 평가: PER, PBR, PSR 등 단일 지표로 매수/매도 시점을 판단할 수 없으며, 'PER 12 이하면 매수' 같은 간단한 규칙은 통하지 않는다고 본다. 리스크: 일본 사례를 들어 주가가 장기간 높은 수준에 머물면 인덱스 수익률이 마이너스가 될 수 있으며, 금리가 매우 낮은 세계에서는 주식이 높은 가격에 거래될 수 있다고 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 없고, 장기적으로 미국 기업에 투자하는 것이 합리적이라는 장기 견해만 제시했다. 대상 자산 예측 발언 없음 (S&P500 장기 견해만 존재).

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01. good morning my name is ted friedman i'm from cincinnati ohio you said in a 1996 annual report that most investors will find that the best way to own common stocks is in an index fund that charges minimal fees two questions first there are a lot of different index funds that hold different baskets of stocks what criteria would you use or recommend to select an appropriate index fund second the price to earnings ratio of the s p 500 is significantly higher than its historical average what benchmark should an investor use in purchasing this index yeah i would say that in terms of the index fund i would i would just take a very broad index i would i would take the s p 500 as long as i wasn't putting all my money in at one time if i were going to put money into a index fund in relatively equal amounts over a 20 or 30 year period i would pick that i would i would pick a fund and i know vanguard has very low costs i'm sure there are a whole bunch of others to do i just haven't looked at the field but i would be very careful about the costs involved because all they're doing for you is is buying that index i think that the people who buy those index funds on on average will get better results than the people that buy funds that have higher costs attached to them because it's just a matter of of math if you have a very high percentage of funds being institutionally managed and a great many institutions charge a lot of money for doing it and others charge a little they're going to get very similar gross results but different net results and i recommend to all of you reading john john boldle's written a couple of books in the last five years and i i can't give you the titles but they're very good books and anybody investing in funds should read those books before investing or if you've already invested you still should read the books and and it's all you need to know uh really about fund investing so i would pick a broad index but i wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time i would do it over a period of time because the very nature of index funds is that you are saying i think america's business is going to do well over or reasonably well over a long period of time but i don't know enough to pick the winners and i don't know enough to pick the winning times there's nothing wrong with that i don't know enough to pick the winning times occasionally i think i know enough to pick a winner but not very often and i certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying this is a winner and this isn't and so on so the important thing to do if you have an overall feeling that businesses reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time as to the right criteria as to when you should or shouldn't i don't think there are any great criteria on that i don't think price earnings ratio you know determines things i don't think price book ratios price sales ratios i don't think any there's no single metric i can give you or that anyone else can give you in my view that will tell you this is a great time to buy stocks or not to buy stocks or anything of this sort it it just isn't that easy that's why you go to an index fund and that's why you buy over a period of time it isn't that easy you can't get it by reading a magazine you can't get it by you know watching television you can't you'd love to have something that said you know i mean that that you know if pes or 12 or below or some number you're buying if they're 25 or above yourself it is it doesn't work that way it's it's it's a more complex business than that it couldn't be that easy when you think about it so if you are buying an index fund you are protecting yourself against the fact that you don't know the answers to those questions but do you think you can do well over time without knowing the answers to those questions as long as you consciously recognize that that fact and you know i would if you're a young person and you intend to save a portion of your income over time i just say just pick out a very broad index and i would i would probably use the s p 500 because i think if you start getting beyond that you start starting to think you should be in small caps this time and large caps that time or this porn style and as soon as you do that you know you're in a game you don't know you know you're not equipped to play in in all candor that would be my recommendation charlie i think his second worry is that common stocks could become so high priced that if you bought index funds you wouldn't expect to do very well i didn't think i'd live long enough to think that was likely to happen but now i think that may happen but probably what you're saying there is that you they they could get to a level and be they'd have to be at a sustained level like that for a long time it could be there and stay there for a long time in which case you might make three or four percent but would there be anything way better than that around under those circumstances anyway and pass the peanut brittle please well in in in japan where something like this happened uh the return from owning a nice index over the last 13 years or so is negative can something as horrible as that happen here i mean is it conceivable i think the answer is yes but the option in japan of course is to have uh deposits in a bank or or own japanese bonds it's somewhere between zero and one or one and a half percent so if if rates on everything get very low which means stocks sell very high you know then it just means that you live in a different world than existed 20 or 30 years ago when generally capital got paid there i must say that we have very good packaging yeah