저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏과 멍거는 불확실한 시기에도 미국 경제와 기업은 장기적으로 성장하므로 거시 악재를 이유로 투자를 피하지 않는다는 입장이다. 거시 악재에 대한 입장 역사상 어느 시점에도 부정적 요인은 많았다. 1974년 주가가 싸던 때에도 악재 목록은 충분히 작성할 수 있었다. 장기 낙관의 근거 다우지수는 20세기 동안 66에서 1만 이상으로 올랐고, 두 차례 세계대전·핵폭탄·독감 유행·냉전을 겪고도 성장했다. 투자 원칙 좋은 사업이 있으면 외부 환경과 무관하게 투자하며, 평범한 사업을 세상이 좋아질 것이라는 이유로 사들이지 않는다. 향후 전망(기간 명시 없음) 3년 전 이전의 높은 수익률에 비해 향후 수년간 기관 투자 수익률은 상당히 낮을 수 있다고 봤고, 이는 실제로 맞아떨어졌다고 언급했다. 리스크 투자자 본인이 과도한 열기나 과욕으로 손실을 본다는 점을 강조했다. 레버리지를 쓰지 않고 주식을 꾸준히 보유하면 적절한 수익을 얻을 수 있다고 봤다. 질의 응답 요지 한 질문자는 이라크전·소비자 부채·고용 둔화·금리 인상 가능성을 들어 향후 5~10년이 어렵다는 견해를 전하며 전망을 물었다. 버핏은 이에 대해 특정 자산 방향을 말하지 않고 장기 원칙만 답했다. 종목 및 자산 언급 대상 자산에 해당하는 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 언급은 없다. 출연자 관점 요약 버핏: 미국 기업과 경제의 장기 성장을 신뢰하며 좋은 사업을 찾는 것이 핵심이다. 멍거: 몇 년 전부터 기관 투자 수익률이 낮아질 수 있다고 예상했고 과열 섹터에 대한 경계를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
good afternoon Mr Buffett Mr Munger my name is Mark stender from San Francisco um my question involves if you live in California which I understand you do some time of the year it's almost mandatory that you shop at Whole Foods Markets they sell a lot of organic food there and I was wondering if anyone ever tried to feed you organic food or organic food stock I've never been near the place but um Charlie Charlie well I've never thought of as a health nut but uh he may have some comment to make on this being a Californian no my idea of a good place to shop is Costco has these heavily marbled filet steaks in the finest grade and the idea of eating a little whole grain whatever I'm washing it down with some carrot juice is just never appeal to me we don't have a lot of arguments between the two of us about where to eat number nine hello thank you I'm Sherman Silver from St Louis I'm a fertility doctor in St Louis we kind of view ourselves as the Berkshire Hathaway of infertility treatment we don't know anything really about business we're doctors and scientists and so first I'd just like to say I really appreciate you the people that you have on your board and would like to keep it that way because we do know a lot about character and I'm happy to have our savings safe with you and the people of character that represent the company thank you I just had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago I was talking to one of the former managers of the Fidelity Magellan fund manage huge amounts of money and he he never really met you and I was saying I may have a chance to ask Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question what would that question be I wanted to have some idea of something intelligent I could ask business-wise and he thought if he had the opportunity to talk to you the best thing is to give you what would sound like a softball question because um because you could maybe bring more profoundness to this than we hear usually what in view of the Iraq War uh Consumer Debt that's increasing declining job growth declining pay in the jobs that are growing prospects of increased interest rates he has this view that the next five to ten years are going to be very difficult what would your view be about this the investment future for the next five to ten years in view of all these negative factors going on that's too soft for me I think Warren should take that well I would say that at any given point in history including when stocks were their cheapest you could find um an equally impressive number of negative factors I mean you can you could have sat down in 1974 when stocks were screaming Bargains and you could have written down all kinds of things that would would have caused you to say you know the future is just going to be terrible and similarly it at the top you know or anytime you can write down a large list of of things that would be quite on the bully side we don't panic we really don't pay any attention to that sort of thing I mean we we have uh you might say that our underlying premise and I think it's a pretty sound underlying premise is that this country will do very well um and and in particular it will do well for business business has done very well you know the Dow went from 66 to ten thousand plus in the Hundred Years of the 20th century and we had two world wars and nuclear bombs and flu epidemics and we you know you name it cold war there's always they're always there's always problems in the future there are always opportunities in the future and in this country the opportunities have won out over the problems over time and I think they will continue to do so absent the weapons of mass destruction which is another question and business won't make much difference if anything really drastic happens along that line so we don't I don't I can't remember any discussions Charlie and I have had ever going back to 1959 that where we would have come to the conclusion at the end of them that we would have passed on a great business opportunity a business to buy because of external conditions nor did we ever buy anything that we thought was mediocre simply because we thought that the world was going to be wonderful at the uh it won't be the American economy in my view the Dozen investors over 5 or 10 or 20 year period it will be the investors themselves if you look at the record of the 20th century you'd say how could anybody have missed you know and owning equities during that time and yet you know we had we had all kinds of people wiped out you know in the 2932 period we had we had all kinds of things that were bad but if if you would just own stocks right straight through didn't leverage them you know you would you have gotten a perfectly decent return so we're we're unaffected in essence by the by the variables you mentioned just show us a good business tomorrow and we'll jump at the hook uh Charlie yeah yeah I think but it's also true that both of us have sat at various times over the last three years we wouldn't be at all surprised if professionally invested money in America had a pretty modest result over a fairly extended period of the future compared to the very dramatically High returns that it had achieved up to about three years ago and so far that's been proved out to be pretty much right certain stretches are easier than other stretches yeah our expectations were were more modest than most people's a few years ago we didn't say the world was coming to an end or anything we just said that people have gone crazy in certain sectors and that and that anybody that thought that that you could you know sit at home and day trade and make double-digit returns over time or do anything that you were entitled to that you know by just taking a little money in your 401k or something was really living in a Fool's Paradise but that was never accompanied by any predictions of disaster for the American economy as a whole or for American Business as a whole it's people get crazy Notions from time to time and for National markets and we've come in on this earlier but they just believe things that there's it's hard to understand how they can believe now in some extent they get sold out by other people uh but uh uh American Business really is has never let investors Down Under the group but investors have done themselves and quite frequently
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