Charlie Munger: 'The average person buying IPOs is going to get creamed'

요약 보기

찰리 멍거는 IPO가 대체로 투자자에게 불리하다고 봄 질문: 좋은 IPO나 정부 민영화 종목에 멍거의 사고방식을 적용할 수 있는지 답변: 수많은 IPO 중 뛰어난 투자자는 좋은 종목을 찾을 수 있지만, 평범한 투자자는 IPO 매수로 크게 손해 본다 IPO는 대체로 소형주이거나 버크셔가 이해하기 어려운 첨단기술주라 버크셔에는 맞지 않는다 경매시장(상장 주식 거래)에서는 실제 가치의 1/4 수준에 팔리는 극단적 저평가 매물이 나올 수 있다 반면 IPO는 매도자(발행사)가 시장 여건이 좋을 때 상장을 결정하는 협상거래에 가까워 저가 매수 기회가 적다 협상거래는 집 매매처럼 가격이 비교 기준에 맞춰져 저가 매수가 어렵다 경기 나쁠 때 저가 IPO도 있지만 대부분은 매도자에게 유리한 시점에 나온다 결론: 상장 주식 경매시장에서 종목을 고르는 편이 더 나은 매수 기회를 준다

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. good day my name is martin crowets i'm a shareholder from sydney australia and thank you so much for some of your wonderful hospitality how we we've had a chance to get on some of omaha's 65 golf courses and it's just great being in the second best country in the world my question to you sir is regarding to ipos we had one of the authors about a book on yourself visit us in sydney last year and apparently you dislike ipos my question is there are some really poor businesses that try and get passed off but there are some good ones there's some government privatizations or decentralizations the demographics of baby boomers and we have some friends wanting to exit some really good businesses could we as investors and berkshire hathaway not apply some of your disciplines to look at investing in some of these and finally would you answer be different in its applicability to berkshire hathaway as a company as opposed to us as investors thank you sir charlie the first question is it entirely possible that you could use our mental models to find good things to buy among ipos the answer is sure there are a zillion ipos every year and buried in those ipos i'm sure there's a there are a few senses that a really intelligent person could find and pounce on so welcome on the uh but the average person buying ipos is going to get creamed uh so if you're talented enough why sure that will work the second question i forget about the government offering services about government spin-offs give them the spotlight again what was the second question it was just would the attitude of berkshire hathaway be different as opposed to investors thank you yeah because the ipos are normally small enough so that they won't work for us or they're high-tech where we couldn't understand them and so by and large if warren is looking at them i i don't know about it yeah the i mentioned earlier how you an auction market prevailing in the uh in the stock market will will offer up extraordinary bargains sometimes because somebody will sell a half a percent or one percent of a company at a price that may be a quarter of what it's worth whereas in negotiated deals you don't get that an ipo situation more closely approximates a negotiated deal i mean the seller decides when to come to market in most cases and they don't pick a time necessarily that's good for you so it has i think it's way less likely that in scanning a list of 100 securities that are trading in the auction market uh well in the uh 100 ipos if you scan 100 ipos you're going to come up with something cheaper than scanning 100 companies that are already trading in the auction market it is more of a negotiated sale and negotiated transactions are very hard to get bargains if you take the houses in omaha you know somebody that lives next door to somebody who sold their house for 80 000 or dollars and their house is more or less comparable they're not going to sell it for 50.

02. it just doesn't happen people are it's too important an asset and they're cognizant of what it brings uh what is being brought for similar properties that's what happens in negotiated sales now if on the other hand there was some a whole bunch of entities that own one percent of each house in omaha and you had an auction market in those one percentage points they might sell it damn near anything and occasionally they sell at crazy prices so you're way in in my view you're way more likely to get incredible bargains in the in the uh in an auction market it's just the nature of things the ipo is closer sometimes there will be ipos in terrible markets uh and they may come very cheap but by and large that is not when ipos come they come when the seller thinks that the the market is ready for them and they they come they come with an informed seller uh thinking it's a pretty good time to go public and you know that you'll make better buys in my view in auction market number