저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장과 경제에 대한 낙관적 장기 전망이 중심이다. 거시경제: 경상수지 적자는 대략 균형 수준으로 축소됐고 서비스 수출(특히 IT·기업서비스)이 강하다. 루피는 매년 3~4% 약세를 보일 수 있으나 물가 상승 압력이 점차 완화될 것으로 봤다. 주식시장 밸류에이션: 니프티가 16,800 부근에서 지지되며 18,000까지 랠리했다는 점을 언급했다. 현재 주가수익비율은 대략 18~19배 수준으로 제시했고, 하방은 제한적이며 상방 여력은 20~30%로 봤다. 실적 전망: 기업 이익 상향 조정이 곧 시작될 수 있다고 봤다. 매출 성장은 6~7% 수준으로 기대하며, 마진은 원가 부담 완화와 가격 조정으로 개선될 것으로 봤다. 리스크: 원자재 가격, 외부 충격(유가 등)에 따른 변동성 가능성을 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 인도 기업 이익 성장과 소비 회복을 바탕으로 장기적으로 긍정적이다. 중국과 비교해 인도 기업 지배구조와 법체계에 대한 신뢰가 높다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
In the Market Guru series, today we have a very special guest with us in our studio, Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services and known as Warren Buffett of India. He is very influenced by him and has a great focus on valuations. He has a very good grasp on market cycles. Another thing about Ramdev ji is that Ramdev ji normally does not track the market.
Many times, when we talk to him, he asks, "Okay, I don't know where Nifty is because I don't track it." Ramdev ji, first of all, thank you for taking out time for us. Especially, thank you for coming to our studio. He is taking a very big track and maybe for the Indian market. Let us explain it. Look, the current account deficit was very high in this year's school because that happened.
Oil exports also increased a bit. Gradually, as our services exports picked up, merchandise exports also did well and geared up on the strength of oil, all that happened together and now 24 In Vodafone, I think it is of plus minus type, meaning current account deficit is just about baby flat, we also have one small surplus due to this, but what is happening in this way is that your rupee which falls by 3-4% every year against dollar, it may be that it may stay here for a few years, okay because RBI is there, so what will happen in tea export, your inflation will keep increasing, so with 4x, the deficit which had fallen from 650 to 550 has already become 585-90 and is decreasing every week, so now for example, in this year, your normal delivery will not be a loss in translation, so your purchasing power will remain stable, it will not increase but it will be stable, this can also make a difference on inflation because your imports decline every three-four days, everything is dollar, that too is imported, keep in mind that the percentage price may not be high because of the decline, so what will be the answer to this Your inflation will come down, inflation will come down, then that whole cycle, but Ramdev ji, one of the core of it is that the Indian market has been such a strong support factor, not last year, but the development of the IT space has ended, but it will have some impact, and look at it differently, brother, if you take your exports, they were 12% to 13%, and the base was 200 billion, this 12% means 22-25, okay, only 25 billion will come, only 25-27 billion will come extra, so clearly the growth rate which was 12% will become stable, there will be a decrease, but the other services that you have come to India, hence the business services, the big companies that are opening, 50 years old people have opened 60 thousand, there the momentum is very high, so the total services exports this year were very surprising, it is around 30%, which means 250 billion has become ₹350, now next year the services exports in total bill IT by 10%-15%, I think.
I don't have that much idea but they have to watch you today, forward it to you, okay, because you talked about the rupee, there is another question added to it, then there will be music, if they feel that the rupee is not being defined, because they have to fight that whatever they earn, a percentage of it gets taken out in it, so what, and one thing of yours, last time, its exit, its entry will be more painful than what it was, so you are thinking that in the next 2 years, if you ever see a little price in earnings, a little string is seen, any external band, whatever happens, the price of oil falls, that crane select should just fire, any diversion, if you get a little increase in earnings, a little confidence has come in the market, I think they would like you to come back in India, because see, there is no such story in the Indian story, IMG, there is no story in the mall, the story of China was very good, many people learned from them, we are also learning, but the stock market did not sleep there, so economy growth and stock market growth These are two different things, so no, it has not reduced in China, money will be made there.
In India, economic growth was very slow from the channel, but still a lot of money has been made because of the corporate color here, the justice system, the legal system here, that means I trust the corporates a lot, so I feel that this story of India is not such a big story, 3.5 to 7 trillion flat in six to seven years, such high producing, that means with 99% of the properties, your income will increase by 3.30% in 6 to 7 years, there are very few such places, so you will make 10%, 12%, 15%, that is to be seen, but this type of high visibility story is very less, so five, if this becomes this table, Ram ji, one thing which I always liked about you, you always taught me that whenever you invest, then one thing you see is how much downside is there in it, after that you have to protest because the upside is unlimited, so in the Indian market at this time, how much downside is going to you from here, We went up to 16800.
I know you track Nifty levels, but it went up to 16817 and from there a good rally up to 18000. So, look, that 16817000 will be a base for the market. That's the thinking. So, look, I have seen it from the apps, brother, the next question is 925 for 950 paise, so understand that the story will fall around that, 93935.
So, you mean you are trading current or 23, 24, give 20 times, that means you are trading 18, 19 times, so the meaning of the game in this is okay, 15, 16 can also come, so anything can happen, but your down side is very limited, now the side potential is very high because this year your day was 15, 17%, next year again that type of group is being formed, so your down side is 10%, up side 20, 25, 30% is visible, this type of thing.
1:3 is looking at this. In fact, I was reading your research team's note on earnings that after many quarters, earnings upgrades will probably start. You have confidence because those upgrades have been a mirage for us. I mean, they haven't come. We say every time that they might come, but they haven't come.
This time, looking at the companies, except for Accept IT, it seems that maybe there could be a running upgrade. See, there is top line momentum in the economy, you see, and in 2023, there was 15, 16, 17% offline growth. The problem is with margins, that means there was cost inflation, all that was due to the bills.
We corporates are now gradually increasing our share and comedy prices are also coming down. So, I feel that I mean, we talk to many companies, everyone says that sir, best margin is going to be there, there is no coming in one, so further things are stabilizing and actually friends from India to America and the flights that we do, medicine etc.
Late date you bill 20% premium no dewar 10 15% discount on de rapid so this type of lot of decline has happened many things when we verify material items where actually price are going up price are going up so in this way I feel that because the economics is growing at 6-7% then your top line will come consumption will come weather corporate surprising power note date depends on de commodity pricing ok good big success
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