저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 실적 성장은 견조하지만 에너지·금융 등 소외 섹터와 주가 간 괴리가 있어 시장에 주의가 필요하다는 입장. S&P500 1분기 실적 성장률은 약 11%로 전망되며, 이 성장은 5개 섹터가 주도한다. 그중 FANG과 기술주만 시장을 상회하고 있다. FANG과 기술주는 노동시장 타이트닝과 자동화 수요로 구조적 수요가 있어 강세가 타당하다고 봤다. FANG은 PMI 둔화 국면에서 희소한 성장주로 평가했다. 페이스북과 애플 실적을 주목할 변수로 꼽았다. 은행, 에너지, 원자재는 실적 기여도가 크지만 연초 이후 시장 대비 부진하다. 괴리의 핵심은 시장이 FANG·기술주에 프리미엄을 주는 반면 실적 회복이 반영되지 않은 소외 섹터에 있다는 점이다. 향후 시나리오는 두 가지로, 소외 섹터가 실적 성장을 따라잡거나 실적이 뒷받침되지 않아 주가가 하락하는 경우다. 본인은 따라잡기(catch-up) 쪽에 무게를 둔다. 에너지는 유가 확신이 부족해 시장이 아직 콘탱고 상태이나, 에너지 신용(CDS·투자등급·하이일드) 지표는 올해 큰 폭으로 회복했다. 주식이 채권 시장의 회복을 아직 따라가지 못했다는 판단이다. 리스크 측면에서는 시장에 대해 전반적으로 신중한 입장이다. 다만 실적 자체가 약세의 이유는 아니며, 실적 흐름은 글로벌 요인(비미국 매출, 글로벌 PMI 개선)에 힘입어 여전히 긍정적이라고 봤다. 주된 우려는 신용·채권 시장과 주식 시장 간 괴리다. 결론적으로 주식과 채권 중 한쪽이 맞을 것이며, 그 괴리를 주시해야 한다고 정리했다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Trading Nation. I'm Dominic Chu. We're joined by Tom Lee of Funst Global Advisors. And and Tom, I want to say this is an interesting segment here because you've noticed a disconnect between corporate profits, the earnings picture, and the stock performance in the market overall. What exactly are you seeing and why is this divergence so important?
Hey, Dominic. Yeah, what we've noticed and you know we're in the middle of earnings season so we thought it'd be good to take a look is that the the sectors that have contributed to the earnings growth in Q1 and S&P earnings are up 11%. It's really driven by five sectors. Of those sectors only fang and technology are outperforming the market.
All right. So we already understand that maybe the comparables over last first quarter, you know, the same time last year, they're they're fairly easy to beat. But it still sounds as though there's at least robust earnings growth, 11% like you said. But if it's only technology, there's a reason why technology is the most important sector out there.
It's the most heavily weighted. So maybe it's okay that technology is doing some of the heavy lifting or or or not. Uh yeah, actually I think that's right, Dominic. I think technology and fang because you know you know we've in our work started to strip fang out of both technology and and discretionary they're important it's an important sector because one it really addresses um the tightening labor markets and the need for automation and so I think just like the 50s technology should be doing well because you know I think there is going to be secular demand for tech spend and fang makes a lot of sense because in this market where you know the PMIs are showing you know slight downside risk Fang represents really scarce scarce growth in this market.
So as we take a look at basically this this mega cap picture for technology stocks/discretionary because like you said Amazon is technically a discretionary stock. Generally it's been fairly okay for earnings so far with Netflix, Amazon. I mean the Facebook component is going to be intriguing to me because we're talking about Facebook and Apple as the two of the big headliners for technology earnings this coming week.
So, as we talk about the way that this divergence is performing, why is it that it's so troubling to you to see this kind of earnings growth versus stock performance gap, if you will? Um, well, Dominic, you know, the dis the the disconnect in our view isn't necessarily that fang and tech are outperforming.
It's just that, you know, banks have been big earnings contributors. Um, energy and basic materials. these those other three have done as much or if not even more to grow S&P earnings in both Q1 and 2017 and these groups are underperforming the market year to date. So we we think the disconnect is that the market is correctly paying for fang and for tech um and you know as you know category killers and really important companies like Apple and Facebook it makes sense they should lead but we think that you should also be seeing a recovery in the groups that are driving earnings which are down year to date.
So this could mean one of maybe a couple of main things going forward. One is that those sectors that are underperforming try to catch up to the earnings growth that they are contributing to the overall market. Or the other is that the stocks fall, right? Because they aren't contributing as much and maybe the earnings growth isn't really there to power enough of the stock gains.
So in your opinion, which one is it? Are are we going to see those sectors that have been at least showing signs of earnings growth move up and catch up to the rest of the overall market? I I cite energy specifically because we know how bad it was almost the trough for earnings first quarter last time around.
That's right. Um you know I I'd say I mean we're in the camp that the catch-up trade is for the lagards like energy and the banks to catch up to the broader market. Um energy in particular has been a tough call. Part of it is that, you know, there's still not a lot of conviction about where oil prices are, and it's reflected in the fact that the market's still in contango.
But energy credit both in CDS, investment grade, and in high yield have been the huge performers this year. So, we think one of the disconnects is that energy high yield and CDS reflects the recovery in energy profits, but energy stocks don't. All right. So perhaps the stocks catch up to what the bond markets are already showing in terms of health of the overall energy sector.
One more point overall for this earnings season. You mentioned that 11% earnings growth number. That's what we're forecasting if all other reports for the S&P 500 come in as expected. Are there any things that you see possibly derailing the whole story for stocks right now? We know there's a lot of skepticism.
People have been waiting for this pullback that just never seems to happen. Is there something that you keep an eye on that that says maybe if these things happen, we would be a little bit more worried about the overall market? Yeah. Well, Dominic, you know, we're in the camp that we do, you know, we're pretty cautious on the market overall, but we don't think earnings is the reason to be bearish.
You know, I think that there is this turn in earnings that started last year. Um, I think it's really being driven by more global dynamics. you know this, you know, I think you guys have actually noted this. Non US revenue has been highly correlated with stock price performance this year as well and the PMIs globally are doing well.
So I I think that the cadence of earnings still should be pretty positive for us. It's just the divergence between credit markets and bond markets and equities. All right, so if we take a look at that, somebody's going to have it right. Maybe it's stocks, maybe it's bonds, but certainly something Tom Lee to focus on.
Thank you so much for joining us, Tom Lee of Funstrap Global Advisors and thanks for joining Trading Nation. I'm Dominic Chu. For more, go to tradingnation.cnbc.com if you missed any of these segments and other ones in the past as well. Until then, we'll see you next time around. d.
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