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Tom Lee – This Will Be Scary: URGENT Market Update & Prediction!

Digital Coin · 2025-09-06 · 유튜브 시청 10,429 · Board Views 8 · International

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I think a conservative 30 multiple to that, you get roughly three TRA of value. So the idea is that if you add those two pieces together, um, Ethereum should be uh close to $60,000 per per unit. And again, that's um I mean that that's an 18x roughly from here. We already have a a very big universe of people that don't believe in crypto.

I mean whether you look at any survey, the Bank of America's latest survey, 75% of institutional investors have zero exposure to to crypto. Zero. So that's 3/4 the universe. For years, Bitcoin has held the spotlight as the dominant crypto asset, widely recognized, deeply liquid, and increasingly institutionalized.

As Lee explains when he speaks with investors today, Bitcoin is understood. People know how to model it, how to value it, and where it fits in a portfolio. It's not fringe anymore. It's mainstream. Ethereum, on the other hand, is still misunderstood and according to Lee, dramatically underowne. you know, our focus on crypto has been the idea that, you know, Bitcoin had had a very clear place in someone's portfolio because of its not only proven size and stability, but it really is a as a way to store value.

And then when we thought about how people should allocate crypto outside of that, there were many projects, whether it was Salana Sooie or the many things that you guys write about. But beginning this year, we started to take another hard look at Ethereum. And the reason for that is that I think that the regulatory picture is moving in a way this year in the United States in a favorable way that is getting Wall Street to take crypto and blockchain pretty seriously.

And of course, the killer app or the chat GPT moment really was stable coins and circles IPO. But following on that was the Genius Act and then the SEC's project crypto. And the reason I think this favors Ethereum is many but you know foremost when we look at the projects that are taking place for Wall Street to tokenize assets whether it's dollars or other assets the majority of this is taking place on Ethereum.

Wall Street moving onto crypto rails I think is like a 1971 moment for Ethereum. So, I think it's creating enormous opportunities to move a lot of things onto the blockchain. And it Ethereum won't be just the only winner, but it's one of the primary winners. And from an institutional adoption perspective, I've heard a lot of people talk about this.

You know, Bitcoin's already become very institutional. When I talk to investors and I do meetings, you know, they understand how to to sort of understand how to model or even think about future value for Bitcoin. And it is in a lot of people's portfolios. Ethereum is so underowned that it's more like Bitcoin in 2017.

I don't think in Ethereum is actually viewed as an institutional asset today. So I think it's so early and that's why I think there's a bigger opportunity if you look at the addressable market for what takes place on the banking system and just assume that half of this ends up on the blockchain then that's really worth $3.8 8 trillion of of captured value on Ethereum.

And then if you think about like Swift and Visa, okay, um which is about 450 billion a year and assume you know there's a gas fee per transaction and then what it means to essentially network revenue you and you apply I think a conservative 30 multiple to that you get roughly three trina of value. So, the idea is that if you add those two pieces together, um, Ethereum should be uh close to $60,000 per per unit.

And again, that's um I mean that that's an 18x roughly from here. There's nothing wrong with someone wanting to own um an ETF to get exposure because then they're going to own without much tracking error kind of direct exposure to you know Ethereum just like the Bitcoin ETFs give you direct exposure to Bitcoin.

But if you look at the Bitcoin treasury space, Micro Strategy is larger than the largest Bitcoin ETF. So there's actually more investors who are preferring to own Bitcoin through Micro Strategy than they through than through Bitcoin. And I think it's for a logical reason, which is that a crypto treasury isn't just giving you a static exposure to Ethereum.

What they're doing is they are giving you exposure to someone who is trying to grow your Ethereum holdings per share. And Micro Strategy, great example, when they went to pivot to their Bitcoin strategy in August 2020, Micro Strategy had roughly a $13 stock price and it's gone to 400. Well, let's say 30x from that point in the last 5 years.

During that time, Bitcoin was 11,000 and now it's about 120,000. So, it's about an 11x. That means that Micro Strategy has grown its holdings of Bitcoin per share while an like a Bitcoin ETF would have kept you constant. So in that same 5year period, you'd made 11x owning a Bitcoin ETF, but you you did far better because of his treasury strategy.

And that treasury strategy is using and taking advantage of the liquidity of his stock and the volatility of his stock so that he can acquire more Bitcoin per share. And that's what Michael Sailor's strategy has successfully done because he went from having you know a dollar or two of micro of Bitcoin per share to 227 today.

So a massive massive increase. The majority of the time someone's coming and looking at crypto treasuries with a really skeptical eye. I think many investors who've owned Micro Strategy have done really well with it. But Micro Strategy is not as widely owned as you think. even though it is one of the largest stocks in the market today and the reason many people don't understand it is that we already have a a very big universe of people that don't believe in crypto.

I mean whether you look at any survey the Bank of America's latest survey 75% of institutional investors have zero exposure to to crypto zero. That's 3/4 of the universe. And when they look at crypto treasuries, they think that these are inferior to holding the underlying token. And so a lot of the education that we've done in our meetings is to explain that, and I can just cite some numbers from Bitmine's presentation, the difference in a crypto treasury versus holding Ethereum is simply the fact that we are growing your Ethereum holdings per share.

because on July 8th when we closed the the pivot to the Ethereum treasury, there was only $4 of Ethereum held per share. And then on July 27th, which is about a month ago, when we published that update and put in a presentation, there was $23 of Ethereum per share. So the amount of ETH held per share went up by like six times and uh or sorry, eight times, nine times.

And so it it really shows you that there is a a really big change in how much what I call the like the velocity or the accretion held of ETH per share that comes from a a properly executed treasury strategy. According to Tom Lee, Ethereum is entering its 1971 moment, a historic turning point where the global financial system begins shifting onto blockchain rails.

With regulatory clarity improving, Wall Street embracing tokenization, and Ethereum already serving as the backbone for stable coins and financial experiments, the groundwork is being laid for massive growth. If Lee's numbers prove accurate, Ethereum could be worth over $60,000 in the years ahead, making it one of the biggest asymmetric bets of our time.

There's already a really good template, which is Micro Strategy. And so I think any treasury company should study what Micro Strategy did because Michael Sailor, you know, by the way, he was not the first cryp Bitcoin treasury company. The first one was Overstock. if you guys remember and uh you know and they had Bitcoin on their balance sheet but that was you know did not resonate with investors and it didn't ever really help the stock and then Michael Sailor came along and did it in a much much more deliberate and and big way and so I I think that that's really served us and so what we realized was that in order to really execute a crypto treasury strategy properly you need to really as a first principle just have a super clean strategy and and that's what BitMines's pursued you know doing it only with basically common equity so not not doing any derivative structures and because then it really makes it really easy and clean for investors to understand uh what the company's pursuing down the road of course it will appeal to maybe add other strategies that take advantage of either volatility or the market cap size.

But I think that the key is really for the company to clearly articulate a strategy that connects with shareholders. That is really important because that is why Palunteer uh has earned the premium has of course a great product but it but it's really because shareholders feel like they're owning something important and so I think foremost is really for investors to understand that Ethereum is one of the biggest macro trades out there for the next 1015 years and I think compared to other Ethereum treasuries everyone should benefit you know as Ethereum rises But I think that the price that a company trades at as a multiple of its Ethereum holdings isn't just reflecting the ETH held like that cuz that's worth 1.0.

The staking yield is getting a premium because if you're getting 3% yield, if you earn 3% yield but you put a 20 multiple on it, maybe you should put a 30 multiple on it because it's there's no cost. That should be 0.9. So I think an Ethereum treasury should trade at 1.9. And remember ETFs, Ethereum ETFs cannot fully stake because of liquidity requirements.

So they will never get the proper multiple for their staking. And then everything beyond that should be a function of the liquidity of a company's stock and the velocity because the the liquidity is how much you trade cuz that's your ability to tap capital markets. And if your stock is thinly traded, you can't really raise money or do any future transactions taking, you know, converts and preferred.

And then the last of course is the velocity. How quickly are you able to add Ethereum per share? That is what people should start to apply a multiple for and they're not today. I think people are being overly simplistic when they look at just price to NAV, which is of course a useful metric. It's like price to book.

But imagine if someone said like, you know, here's a company where the earnings are growing 100% a year and here's one growing at zero, but we'll put the same price to book multiple on it. you know, we can't. But that's what people do today when they force fit. And I think that's why like a MetaPlanet should trade at a premium because they're able to raise money.

For investors, the choice may not just be between owning Ethereum directly or via ETF, but also considering treasury strategies that can amplify ETH exposure per share, just as Micro Strategy did with Bitcoin. One thing is clear. Whether you're a seasoned crypto investor or just beginning to explore this space, the next decade will be defined by how blockchain integrates into global finance. And according to Tom Lee, Ethereum is poised to be one of the primary winners.

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