저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 10월 중순~중간선거 전후 조정 가능성을 언급하나 큰 하락은 제한적으로 보며, 물가 둔화와 금리 정상화(10년물 5% 하회) 기대로 S&P500 연말 상승(8200~8400)을 전망. 기업 이익 성장 가속(3분기 약 30%, 2027 EPS 상향 20%+)과 AI·암호화폐 강세를 근거로 듦. 은은 10년물 금리 상승 압력으로 수주 내 저점 형성 후 중간선거 이후 금리 하락 시 회복 예상. 비트코인은 2022년 저점 대비 상승 흐름 비교.
다듬은 글
I think there is a definite expiration date or correction, partly because the midterm elections are a defining event. You know, this will probably be a very strong risk signal to the markets, regardless of the outcome. And since June 30, in my opinion, the situation in the markets has been difficult.
So in part I think we've gone through a gradual correction, and , you know, we've had a lot of different groups that have been in decline. But as for a bigger market drop, I still think there could be some headwind from mid-October until the midterm elections. Mhm. I'm a little hesitant to make such big statements, simply because the sentiment has been negative, and I think when people are pessimistic, it's hard for markets to get out of balance, because we know that people are actually guided by their sentiment and remain cautious.
What if the biggest threat to the stock market right now isn't the economy itself, but rather the markets' expectations about inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve? According to Tom Lee, the current environment may be preparing us for something very different than what many investors expect.
While the consensus remains cautious, Lee sees several important signals pointing to easing financial conditions, stronger earnings, lower bond yields and, potentially, another strong rally in stocks. videos like this. unemployment or that employment report that you think means the previous report in August may have been a bit atypical.
And from this you conclude that any inflationary pressure from the labor market is unlikely. So, you're getting the idea again that if oil can be brought under control, inflation might cease to be a problem. I think before last week's jobs report, the market was operating with a maximally hawkish setup on the Fed, which was going to raise rates three times, including a 75% chance of a hike in October.
This employment report was weaker. Um, in two weeks we will get the September inflation report. In our opinion, this is true. We believe that these one-off factors are passing, so I think that over the next six months, inflation figures will be softer; This will not only allow the Fed to retreat from its hawkish policy , but I think it will also allow bond yields to normalize as inflation uncertainty begins to subside.
And I think there are a lot of clues, because I think tech stocks reaching new highs and cryptocurrency success—that's impossible in an environment of tightening monetary policy. So, I think they expect financial conditions to ease in the future. So you try to guess the future based on signals in different markets.
These would be meaningful times. So when you said yields should normalize, what do you think they would be right now for the 10-year bond if there weren't these false signals in the markets? I think we can go by this figure: before Jackson Hole, 10-year bonds were at 4.75%, and any figure below 5% would be perceived by the markets as very positive for risky assets.
And I mean, there's a good chance that over the next six months we'll see yields below 5 %. You also predict the S&P will rise by the end of the year, perhaps even by 9%. So you're talking about 8200 or even 8400, and you're calling the current market something that again goes against conventional wisdom.
You think this market is like a compressed spring, ready for significant growth, as if it has been restrained, although most believe it is overheated and supported only by artificial intelligence. Yes, I think we're living in unprecedented times because earnings growth is accelerating—this is hard for many to believe, but even third- quarter earnings are likely to grow by almost 30%.
And the revised EPS (earnings per share) forecasts from the beginning of this year to now for 2027 figures have increased by more than 20%. And the S&P index didn't even rise 20%. So, the multiplier has actually decreased. If anyone thought the market was expensive at the beginning of the year , it actually became cheaper.
And I also think that, ironically, high oil prices strengthen the US economy, because it is an exporter. I understand that this is a very difficult situation, but I think there is excessive pessimism, because we have not only good earnings visibility, but also leadership in stocks that benefit from weaker inflation - this is the tech sector and, you know, cryptocurrencies.
You are also, I think, prepared for a market decline at any moment. It could still happen, and you've been talking about it for some time now. In fact , there was a point where you thought the S&P could hit 6,000 by the end of the year, and then you revised that forecast to as high as 7,000 or 8,000.
So, would that be a kind of midterm election rout or something that would cause that? The midterm elections are getting closer and closer. I think this is ...What is this? It was 35 days. We... Has another week passed? Is this...Is this 28? This is a zombie movie. 20... 28 more days. This...This is just 28 days away?
Uh, I mean, I think there's an expiration date on the correction , partly because I see the midterm elections as a cleansing event. You know, this is probably going to be a very big risk signal for the markets, regardless of the outcome. And since June 30, I think the markets have been difficult. So part of me thinks we had a gradual correction, and you know, we had a lot of different groups in a slump.
But as for a bigger drop in the markets, I still think there could be some disruption from mid- October until the midterm elections . Mhm. I am somewhat reluctant to make such categorical statements, simply because the mood was negative. And I think when people are pessimistic, it's hard for markets to "get ahead" because we know that people actually speak their minds and remain cautious.
True. That's the one thing that always...that never changes, right? When things are in front of your eyes that are negative or scary, this is what most strategists use to predict what the market will do in the near future. They never learn. They never truly learn that there is a market discounting mechanism.
So, you said... regardless of the outcome. So, if ...if the Democrats take the House and the Senate, don't you think that would cause some unrest in the stock market? Um, I think, first of all, markets love a stalemate, so Democratic control of Congress would be seen as a stalemate. AI and cryptocurrency stocks have stalled due to the midterm elections due to the perception that Democrats do not support data centers and do not support the Clarity Act.
But our position is that after the midterm elections, Democrats will start supporting data centers and the Clarity Act because, first, data centers usually provide a lot of economic benefits to the community, and the Clarity Act had a lot of support among Democrats. So I think AI stocks will benefit after the midterm elections because a change in Congress will actually give the green light to some projects.
So, what should investors watch for from here? The first thing is inflation. Future inflation reports could be crucial, as softer readings would give the Federal Reserve more flexibility. Second: watch the yield on 10- year Treasury bonds. If yields fall below 5%, Lee believes this can be seen as a strong positive signal for risk assets.
Third: keep an eye on the earnings review. If analysts continue to raise earnings expectations, the fundamentals for the stock's rise will strengthen. Fourth: watch the technology sector and cryptocurrencies. Silver, well, it's an old friend, isn't it? I mean, we've been talking about this for years, and I mentioned at one time that we're probably going to see a significant cooling period starting around the beginning of 2026.
And, you know, it's been about what? Nine months, probably. So, presumably, we are nearing the end of what could be considered a temporary capitulation. It's hard to calculate everything perfectly, right? And, you know, when I try to time it, often when I try to do it too precisely, it doesn't always work out.
So , I would say this. We need to understand what is happening with silver right now. What, you know what could happen in the next few weeks? And, you know, really just focusing on why this is all happening. Well, there are many reasons why silver is falling, right? Many reasons. One of the reasons is the growth of the dollar.
Of course? Often, very often, when the dollar is rising, silver doesn't always feel good when the Dixie Index is going up. Another reason is rising rates, right? The yield on 10- year bonds continues to rise rapidly. And if you overlay the 10- year yield chart on the silver chart, you'll notice that basically the same thing happened in both 2018 and 2022.
When the 10- year yield rose, silver fell. And then in 2018, or sorry, in 2022 , you will see the same thing. Basically you'll see that the 10-year yield, the purple line, was going up, and silver was actually going down. So this time it's the same. The 10-year yield is rising. Silver is falling . This is a reason we can point to.
The question then becomes: when will the 10-year yield start to decline? Well, I suggest you watch the video I posted yesterday because I spent a lot of time going into this topic, but in short, usually …maybe this isn't exactly a typical year, right? But usually you start to see long-term rates really come down after the midterm elections.
That doesn't mean they can't peak before the election, but often 10-year bond yields don't start to fall significantly, at least in the final years of a midterm election, until we're past them. So, usually silver should find a "bottom" sooner rather than later before yields reach their peak. You can see it did that in 2022, and to some extent it did in 2018.
You could argue that it has bottomed out after the yield peak, but overall, metals bottomed out around the time yields peaked in 2018, and also a little earlier—in 2022. And you could still argue that even though the low point was in September, silver still fell to the same levels, just a couple of dollars higher, when yields peaked, you know?
And you'll notice that the time frame for the silver bottom to form was roughly from mid-September to mid- November. This was in 2018, and in 2022, from about the end of August to mid- October. So I predict that silver will find its bottom before or around the time yields peak. My guess is that yields will peak and start to fall after the midterm elections, right?
This again doesn't mean they can't peak earlier, but I don't think you'll see them really decline until after the midterm elections. It could be similar to 2018, where you set a high in October and then maybe a slightly lower high in November. Or like in 2022, you know, there was a high in mid- October and then a slightly lower high in early November.
So it's hard to calculate everything perfectly, isn't it? But that's exactly the reason . And the other reason, the real reason why silver is falling— apart from all the nonsense I just said—is just the chart, you know? When you have such parabolic growth, it often requires a long consolidation phase.
Now I am more familiar with how events unfolded with silver in 1974. I guess it's not quite the same, is it? I'm not trying to say that's the case, but to me it seems like an acceptable comparison , where silver had a parabolic rise and then it fell and consolidated for a while, right? Now, what I want you to see in this parabolic rise and consolidation phase, if you just look at it and put one on top of the other, okay?
So if you take this, um, let me actually capture the whole trend so it lines up a little better. And, essentially , something like this , right? Where you have parabolic growth and then silver eventually spends a long time consolidating at lower levels. So the question is, will level 60 hold, right?
Shall we go a little lower? You know, looking at the macro graph, right? I mean, silver spent a lot of time just trying to break the $50 an ounce threshold, right? It reached this maximum in 1980 and then again in 2011. And so I would say that again, I could be wrong, right? But I would say the peak of fear would come if we were to return to these levels or even slightly below.
I'm not convinced that we have to stoop so low. Again, if you look at how it was in 1974, it didn't sink that low, did it? For example, the drop after that parabolic rise was about 41%, right? A drop of 41%. And if you look at silver from that high, it's already down more than 50%. So, I won't say it has to fall, but given the yields, the pressure will persist for a few more weeks.
So, the time frame is for the minimum, right? Theoretically, this timeframe falls within the next few weeks. Because that's when the pressure will be felt the most, right? As profitability continues to rise. And if you look at the 10- year yield, right? I mean, it's actually growing every week right now.
Okay, and I don't know what the threshold is for when silver can pass the 60 position. If, you know, silver is holding at a 10-year yield of 5.3 for now. If the 10-year yield rose to 5.5, would it give up its position? Well, if it reached 5.6, would it be worth it? So I think the timeframe for this weakness to peak is probably the next few weeks, right?
Before, you know, we get to the very end of the year. This is my assumption. This is my assumption. And again , that doesn't mean it can't last a little longer, right ? This is not an exact science. We don't know when profitability will peak, right? Things are happening in the Middle East that are obviously putting pressure on inflation.
But I'm really curious about whether the timing of all of this will play out the way it has historically, where, you know, if you think about it , silver actually did essentially what I was inclined to expect from bitcoin, right? I mean, let's be honest, okay? If you look at the lows of silver, it had its first low, you know, here, as you can see, in February.
When was the Bitcoin low? February. Of course? That was one low, and then another low was here in March. So you actually had a low in the first quarter, then a summer low, and now it's coming down to the fourth quarter. Right? So, that's basically what we were talking about with Bitcoin, but Bitcoin didn't have that kind of movement, and you could argue that's because Bitcoin peaked on apathy, not euphoria.
But the only problem I had to try to reconcile, right? This is because silver peaked on euphoria, and Bitcoin peaked on apathy. The only thing that might argue against this a little is that Bitcoin is in a past cycle, right? In the last cycle, Bitcoin went through what? From 15,000 to 126. So, from the end of 2022, Bitcoin grew from 15 thousand to 126 thousand by the end of 2025.
So, it took about 3 years and Bitcoin actually went from 20k to 120k. Silver has been trading around $17 per ounce since late 2022, peaking at around $121. So, over essentially the same three-year period, silver and Bitcoin have risen in price by roughly the same amount. Tom Lee's market forecast is ultimately a lesson in looking beyond the obvious narrative.
The obvious story is that inflation remains dangerous, Treasury yields are high, the Federal Reserve is acting with restraint, stocks have already risen significantly, and political uncertainty remains elevated. But Lee sees another story unfolding beneath the surface. The labor market may cool, inflation may slow, the Federal Reserve may become less tight, bond yields may normalize , corporate profits may accelerate.
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