저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
톰 리는 향후 12개월 내 ETH가 10,000달러 이상 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 근거로 Bitmain의 ETH 6백만개 축적(공급 약 5%), DApp 보유 비중 7%의 15%까지 증가 전망, 기관 채택·토큰화 확대를 든다. 거시적으로는 연준이 10월 금리 동결 가능성이 높다고 보며, 2018년 중간선거 패턴과 2년물 금리 흐름을 비교해 금리 인상 기대가 과도할 수 있다고 본다. 4분기 기관 암호화폐 비중 확대도 기대한다.
다듬은 글
I wouldn't be surprised. I think this will be one of the most powerful crypto cycles. So, you know, I'm not sure if it's going to happen by the end of the year, but in the next 12 months, I think the price of ETH will be well above 10,000. The cryptocurrency market could be approaching a significant tipping point.
And, according to Tom Lee, Ethereum may be preparing for one of the most significant periods of its growth. As investors continue to debate interest rates, inflation, and the direction of financial markets, Lee believes several powerful forces could shape the next crypto cycle . These include growing institutional adoption, the accumulation of digital assets by public companies, the expansion of tokenized markets, and the growing importance of blockchain to the global economy.
for new videos. I wouldn't be surprised. I think this will be one of the most powerful crypto cycles. So, you know, I'm not sure if it's going to happen by the end of the year, but in the next 12 months, I think the price of ETH will be well above 10,000. Arthur mentioned certain aspects of the network being slow; Ethereum has had a bit of a bad reputation for years as one of the slower blockchains, even though it is one of the “old school ” chains, right?
But in your opinion, you are obviously optimistic about Ethereum. Why do you think he fell a little behind or got such a reputation? Well, I think ETH was designed to be a network for everyone. But they made many improvements. So I think speed, as well as usability—these issues have already been mostly solved .
And companies like ETH gas are really reducing block times significantly. I would say that Ethereum, especially now, after the restructuring, is becoming a much more commercial foundation. Bitmain now owns almost 5% of the total Ethereum supply. Tell us about your accumulation strategy and further business development.
Yes, we just passed the 6 million ETH mark. It took us 15 months. Most of this happened in the midst of a bear market. So I consider this a pretty significant achievement, considering that the crypto world was effectively in “winter.” Um, but I think in the next 12-18 months, all DApps, not just ETH, you know, Bitmain will significantly increase their cryptocurrency purchases.
So I believe that cryptocurrencies with DApps will perform the best, as these DApps essentially buy the crypto and remove it from circulation. Ethereum-based DApps currently hold a total of 7% of the supply. This is more than DApps on Bitcoin or Solana. And I can quite imagine that in this "bullish" cycle this figure will reach 15%.
Your savings goal, as I understand it, was 5%. When you reach that point, will you stop buying? Um, well, we're not quite at the 5% mark yet. We still need to buy another 40,000 ETH. 5%, will you stop buying after that? Is this your limit? We haven't announced what we're going to do yet. OK. Um, but I want to tell you something new.
Yes. But I think we have three priorities. You know, the first one—we want to maintain maximum exposure to ETH because, again, I think Arthur is conservative in the sense that in past cycles Ethereum has gone up 50 to 200 times. So, let's say ETH increases 25 times. That's 62,000 ETH. I mean, Bitmain shareholders will make a ton of money simply by holding ETH.
We also conducted the largest share buyback in the crypto industry—21 million shares for 350 million. Right. And this was done in July. We literally defined...we really created a bottom for Bitmain. That was the bottom for the stock, and a month later, you know, we actually almost doubled in price. And we have all these ambitious projects.
I think in the next crypto cycle, when it comes to tokenization, AI, and computing, we have a great balance. We could use the opportunities there. I want to continue the topic you talked about regarding digital asset treasuries. You know, there was a time not too long ago when digital asset treasuries were very popular, in the spotlight.
They began to fade. We are starting to see that some of these companies were unable to withstand the bear market. It sounds like you're saying we'll see a resurgence of digital asset treasuries. Tell us a little about what that might look like and how it will be different from the situation a year ago .
Yeah, um, yeah, and I think maybe people should divide them into two categories. If DAT is trading below the net asset value, you are buying the cryptocurrency at a discount. So, in a bull market, it's better to buy DAT, because if you don't want to pay, you know, 85,000 for a bitcoin, you can buy it for 60,000, right?
But those trading above their net asset value (NAV), and I'm sure all DATs will rise above their NAV in this "bull" market, are releasing capital, buying more cryptocurrency, and removing supply. This dynamic will cause a huge price movement. I mean, I think one of the reasons why Hyperliquid has been so successful is because Hyperliquid DAT owns 14% of the supply.
So, they...can you imagine what happens when they get 50 % of the offer? I mean, Hyperliquid could go up dramatically, right? Tom, you said that institutions still have an insufficient share of crypto ahead of Q4, which starts in a few days. What is your model for what institutional crypto allocation in a balanced portfolio should look like next quarter?
Many financial institutions already provide clear advice, advisory recommendations on allocation, and it ranges from 2% to 10%. If I look at the Fundstrat institutional universe, maybe 5% have at least 2%, which means the vast majority of institutional investors don't have crypto assets. And it was the best- performing asset in the third quarter by a huge margin.
Ethereum rose by 65%. The S&P is actually in place. I think you'll see a huge turnover in the fourth quarter. We previously talked about Ethereum's competitiveness, about new competitors emerging. We are seeing institutions starting to almost choose sides when it comes to the networks they will operate on.
Tell us about how Ethereum maintains its market share. What needs to happen for it to maintain its market share, remain competitive, and maintain the first-mover advantage it had? I'm not sure you asked the question correctly, because if you look at all the projects, whether it's JP Morgan or BlackRock, 99% of them are on Ethereum.
So Ethereum didn't lose any share. I don't understand what you mean by they lost share. In fact, I think they increased it, because if tokenization is the next wave, then there is only one network that dominates. Yes, you mentioned tokenization. We talked to Ondo, we talked to Arca. This is perhaps a kind of next frontier in finance.
You have been working on Wall Street for many years and have extensive experience there. I mean, is tokenization really the turning point for the entire crypto industry? Is this exactly what we were all moving towards? Well, I think from a financial institution perspective, this is really the next way to increase profits , because tokenization allows the bank across the organization to not only become more efficient, but also transform the assets that it owns.
So, this is a huge opportunity for the banking world. And, you know, keep in mind that half of the economy is financial services. So this is literally half the world moving to blockchain. This is a big opportunity for the crypto industry. And again, banks tried to create private networks. This did not create enough liquidity and real success.
But those who build on public networks like Ethereum have actually achieved great success. Mhm. Yes, we are seeing much more acceptance of public permissionless networks, are n't we? We saw an innovative exemption from the SEC. You know, you can trade on open permissionless networks in a sandbox, but these days that seems to be a more accepted practice among institutions, at least for experimenting with some of these permissionless networks.
So it will be interesting to see if this trend continues, but yes. True. Yes, and I want to rephrase this question a bit. So yes, Ethereum has the largest share, but competitors are already hot on its heels. We communicate with various companies at such conferences that are betting on Solana or Avalanche.
Perhaps the question is how can Ethereum remain competitive and maintain its leadership? Well, you know, any industry is competitive. So, I think we should expect competition. Crypto, first of all, competes not so much with each other as with traditional finance, right? And with traditional systems.
So in a sense, Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and even Canton are all working towards the same goal. And ultimately, they will represent a new financial system. But if you look at the depth of development, it's not even close, right? Ethereum is apparently almost 20 times larger than the next largest L1 blockchain.
And if you look at the diversity of staking, which is the true security of the network, it is incredibly diversified. Um, there 's no concentration here, but then again, if you look at other L1s, you know, one structure can provide 70% security. So, is 70% of one structure as part of the security budget truly a decentralized chain, or is it centralized?
Therefore, I believe that at this point there is no other chain that is as competitive as Ethereum. While Ethereum's prospects are optimistic, the macroeconomic environment remains an important variable. The interview also looks at Federal Reserve policy, elevated inflation rates, and market expectations for future interest rate decisions.
The discussion mentions stronger-than- expected consumer and producer price inflation reports and considers whether the Federal Reserve could raise rates again. However, market expectations at the time of the discussion did not necessarily indicate an immediate increase. Interest rates are currently at 4%, and the Fed is expected to raise them again by the end of the year.
Earlier this year, you may recall, we talked about how the Fed would likely have to raise rates starting at the September meeting. And when I talked about it, I actually met a lot of resistance. Many said there was no chance the Federal Reserve would raise rates before the midterm elections. But then again , they did it anyway.
How the situation looks now, and I think it is unlikely to change significantly, because we have already received many hot reports on inflation. The consumer price index was high, the producer price index was also high. You know, I mean , the inflation reports were a bit overstated. Despite all this, the market does not really believe that a rate increase will occur in October.
And I think I made a mistake in the video that came out not too long ago, saying that the probability of an increase is 80%. In fact, there is over an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged. So, there is an 80% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady. Now, to some extent, the market And, obviously, the market today is different from the market in 2018.
I'm not trying to say it's the same, but to some extent it really does feel like deja vu from 2018. And the reason I say that is if you look at the FOMC meeting in 2018, scroll down to the September meeting and just click on the statement, you'll see that they decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to two—two and a quarter percent.
So they raised the stakes in September 2018, a midterm election year, just as they did in 2026. Of course? Now, further, the next meeting actually took place a day or two after the election, in November. They did not raise rates at the November meeting. You can see that they kept rates unchanged at two to two and a quarter percent.
This is also currently consistent with what we saw in 2018. Rate hike in September, pause at the next meeting, October to November. What did they do then in December ? Because there was another meeting in December , and you will see that at that meeting, which is a month and a half after the election, they raised rates again to two and a half percent.
Many might look at this and say, "Well, they'll raise rates next March and maybe next June." This is historically not the best indicator of what will actually happen many months from now, is it? Often this is constantly changing. So I wouldn't have high hopes for it. Even the Federal Reserve is often wrong.
If you look at the Economic Projections Report, the SEP, in December 2018, you'll see that the Fed rate at that time, you know , for 2018 is listed as 2.4, but they were forecasting 2.9% for 2019. Yes? And this was before the pandemic, right? We're not talking about 2020 , when they predicted 3.1. We're just saying, " Look, at the end of 2018, the Fed was actually planning two more rate hikes in 2019." If you look at today, the market assumes that we will pass the December meeting.
Let's assume that we are already at the four and a quarter level, the market is planning for two more rate hikes in 2027. So , it is clear that the market does not always know what will happen. Often he doesn't know. And the Fed also often doesn't know what's going to happen. Because in 2018, when the SEP demanded two more rate hikes, the Fed did not raise them at all in 2019.
And by the end of 2019, by September or July, they had already started lowering rates again. So don't rely on this to understand what's going to happen. Because to a large extent, the Federal Reserve just follows two-year yields, right? If interest rates are rising, it is likely because they are trying to catch up with the 2-year yield.
You see , where the 2-year yield goes—the purple line—the Fed rate often follows. And now the 2-year yield is above the Fed rate at 4.76%. But it was also raised at the end of 2018, right? So, look at this. Think about it this way. The 2-year yield just hit 4.9%, right? And now it is 4.76, but more recently it was 4.9%.
At the end of 2018, the 2-year yield was around 2.9%. OK? So the reason the market may have thought the Fed would raise rates closer to 2.9, right? You see right here, at 2.9—that's probably because that's where the 2-year yield was when they were planning it, or around that level. But then the 2- year yield fell to the level of the Fed rate.
So what happened was that policy became restrictive, even though the Fed didn't have to raise rates any more. Because if you use the 2- year yield as an approximation of the neutral rate, we can all get into all sorts of arguments about why it is one way or another. But when you look at how the 2- year yield has returned to the Fed's target rate, it turns out that the two rate hikes the Fed had planned at the time were n't really needed.
What if the same thing happens today? OK? What if after the midterm elections the 2-year yield falls again? Now, if you look at...We can look at the ROI year-to-date compared to 2018 . So, just looking at the 2-year yield. And we're going to overlay the 2026 and 2018 graphs on top of each other. You see how the 2-year yield has been rising .
But then it took off before the FOMC meeting, at which they did not raise rates. Is n't that interesting? You see that the 2-year yield peaked on November 7th. This was...this was actually when the FOMC meeting was taking place. If you look back, you will see that the meeting was held on November 7-8.
So then the 2-year yield peaked on November 8th, right? On the day of the FOMC meeting, at which they did not raise rates. So what if the same thing happens ? What if the two-year yield increases? You know, maybe she'll jump ahead to the midterm elections, okay? Just listen to me for a minute, okay?
Two-year yields jump ahead of midterm elections. The Fed is not raising rates. The long-term part is scared of this before the elections, so it takes off, but then falls after them . If two-year yields had declined after the midterm elections. Tom Lee's forecast presents an optimistic scenario for Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market, built on something bigger than short-term price fluctuations.
His main argument is that the next crypto cycle could be driven by a combination of corporate accumulation, institutional investment, blockchain-based financial infrastructure, and the growing role of tokenization. Bitmain’s Ethereum holdings illustrate the scale of corporate accumulation strategies, while digital asset management companies could become important sources of demand if their business models remain financially sustainable.
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