저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나 발발로 소비가 줄면 미국 경기침체(GDP 2분기 역성장)가 올 수 있다고 주장. 2019년 GDP 약 21.4조 달러, 연 4~5% 성장 가정 시 약 857억 달러 증발이 필요하다고 계산. 화폐 유통속도(승수효과)를 적용하면 가구당 월 약 87달러 지출 감소만으로 침체 가능하다고 설명. 영상 말미에 무료 주식 증정 등 광고 링크 포함.
다듬은 글
the government wants you to keep spending money sorry the actual script says the government needs you to spend more money oh well holy smokes folks this is mind blowing I just calculated how much less money every single person would have to spend in the United States economy to basically put the United States in a recession and it's scary because it's not as big as I thought maybe a potion will cure this one so in today's meet Kevin Report we're going to go through number one what creates a recession number two how much our economy would have to shrink for us to be in a recession and how much less you would have to spend to put us in a recession and folks that's the scary part on today's meet Kevin Report where I do videos that make you money so this morning on my way to rental property that I'm fixing up I stopped at Lowe's to look for some more respirators actually ended up getting some filter cartridges and that I thought about going to Starbucks but then I remember that Starbucks is no longer allowing people to bring refillable cups because of the outbreak that's going around and I got to thinking you know what I don't want to be part of that system or the outbreak I don't want to catch anything at Starbucks so I'm not gonna go to Starbucks and that got me thinking wow I wonder how much every average American household spends at Starbucks and so I pulled up their earnings report and divided it out by the number of households in America and realized that every single household whether you spend money at Starbucks or not fun fact spends thirty six cents at Starbucks per day which means you spend just shy of eleven dollars per month as a household at Starbucks whether or not you even drink coffee that even includes the Mormons in Utah who I don't believe drink coffee so then that's kind of what got me going down this rabbit hole the first thing I realized is we have to define what a recession is a recession is basically two- quarters of GDP which is technically defined as the total value of all the gas produced in our country in a year gas stands for goods and services so the total value of all goods and services or gas is what creates GDP so in other words a recession or two quarters of negative GDP is just a really fancy complicated way of saying that for half a year we have less gas as a country wheeze deflating so in 2017 America's GDP was a nineteen point five trillion dollars and in 2018 our GDP went up to twenty point five trillion dollars and in 2019 our gross domestic product was twenty one point four trillion dollars you could see that between these years we had a growth of between four to five percent every year which is pretty good now in order to get the United States to go into a recession we have to know what rate were growing at to sort of predict what our GDP will be in 2020 kind of the velocity that we've got going forward like how fast is the train moving so that way we know how much we have to slow it down to make it go backwards in other words so let's assume that there's no outbreak there's no alien invasion and the train keeps moving and it's gonna keep moving at four percent well four percent of last year's gross domestic product would mean the United States economy is going to grow by about eight hundred fifty seven billion dollars this year which means for us to make that number negative we have to have eight hundred fifty eight billion dollars basically disappear in other words a little bit more than eight hundred fifty seven billion dollars of growth has to disappear thanks to some Black Swan event a catastrophe an outbreak or whatever well this is where it gets really interesting see you might think okay Kevin well if we just need eight hundred fifty seven billion dollars to leave the economy let's just divide that number by the total number of households and there we go we could stop watching the video but it doesn't work that way because the real number is much smaller thanks to the velocity city of money or the multiplier that the effect of every dollar we spent has on the economy that's the scary part so let's get into the scary part check out how crazy this concept of the velocity of money is and then you're gonna see how nuts it is how quick of an impact we can have on the economy if we stop spending which is really really scary because when there's an outbreak and even if we're just slightly fearful we could literally be creating our own crash watch this for example let's say I create these daggers for living and I make a hundred of them for a dollar apiece that means I've generated a hundred dollars of manufacturing productivity then I give them to a wholesaler they charge me $100 that's $100 of wholesaling then I send them to retail they sell them for $1,000 that is ten dollars a piece that's a thousand dollars of retailing productivity now throw in $50 for shipping $50 for my health care $50 for financing for my business and $150 for stuff I spend on housing and entertainment and other things if dagger land were a country I would have a gross domestic product of $1,500 which wait a minute the daggers were selling for a thousand dollars or $10 apiece that already includes the amounts like wholesaling and manufacturing right well enter the velocity of money the velocity of money says that every dollar along the way gets counted because it gets used in production so gross domestic product is actually a multiplier of every dollar that's used this is why I started the video with the government needs you for every dollar that you decide to save instead of spending and imagine if everybody in the country does that you're actually creating a massive ripple effect through the economy and I'm gonna give you the exact formula right now and we're gonna start by going through the average consumer spending so we could figure it out together according to the USA Today in 2018 the average household spent 3154 dollars on food away from home that's like Red Robin her job right I used to work in both those places the average American household also spent four hundred eighty four dollars on alcohol per year eighteen hundred and three dollars on clothing per year nine thousand forty nine dollars on transportation per year and two thousand nine hundred thirteen dollars on entertainment per year but now let's say there's an outbreak and all of a sudden things go crazy and we decide you know what we don't want to go to restaurants as much anymore well what's gonna happen to our spending well let's think about that according to the USDA Americans have a food away from home 4.2 times per week on average and let's now say we cut that down by 30 percent so in other words instead of going out 4.2 times per week because there's an outbreak and we're scared now we're only gonna go out three times per week gosh imagine if we cut that down to zero huh but let's just go with cutting it down from four point two times for a week to three times per week yeah we'll just go with three times per week that's about a 30% reduction but then you would be spending a little bit more money on food at home so let's just say to balance those two things out that you end up spending 25 percent less on food away from home 25 percent less on food away from home is a reduction of about seven hundred eighty eight dollars and fifty cents but now let's say you also spend 25% less on alcohol because now you're going out less that would save you an extra 121 dollars per year and since you're going out less you're probably gonna also spend 25% less on entertainment because well again you're out and about last year at home watching Netflix and chilling which is a lot cheaper per dollar of entertainment it's really inexpensive well 25 percent less on entertainment would save you another 720 $8.25 per year now since you're also out and about less let's say you spend 10 percent less on transportation and on buying stuff like daggers because you're not out and about so 10 percent less spending less daggers seems to make sense well now if you reduce your transportation and you retail spending you're spending buying stuff by just ten more percent and then we bundle this all together you'll end up saving 2700 $22.95 per year as a household there are a hundred twenty-eight million households in the United States times 27:22 wait a minute that's only 348 billion dollars so we're not in a recession if every household spends twenty seven hundred twenty two dollars less we're not in a recession wait enter the velocity of money in order to analyze the velocity of money we're gonna go back to the Bureau of Economic Research in the United States and look up the actual nasty and complicated table that shows us the breakdown of how GDP is spent but instead of trying to fully understand this let's just scroll down and go to my favorite part of the chart which is where I condense the complicated economic spreadsheet into a spreadsheet that's a lot easier to understand basically what I highlighted in green is the stuff we spent 25 percent less on which is entertainment and food away from home the stuff I highlighted in yellow is the stuff we spent less on in terms of retail and business spending like retail spending and then since there's an outbreak I ended up highlighting healthcare in red assuming that we're gonna spend about 10 percent more in healthcare as well now obviously calculating the actual velocity of our money is much more complicated than this like there's a difference between m1 money and m2 money but it's really interesting to see what happens if all we do is make these yellow sections fall by 10 percent and the green section followed by 25 percent look what happens to our GDP it's crazy mostly because a fall in 10% for retail and manufacturing and wholesaling and a fall of 25% for recreation entertainment and eating out doesn't seem that unrealistic especially during an outbreak but remember how we got to this we said if the average American household goes out to eat just one less time and spends a total of 25% less on food away from home and entertainment and recreation and spends just 10% less on retail and transportation these are the numbers we get and so back to the chart when we hit enter we get a net loss to our economy of 911 billion dollars in other words if every American household reduce their spending by just 2722 dollars per year or two hundred twenty-six dollars per month the United States economy would fall into recession which since they're an average of two point six people in each household every single person would only have to spend eighty seven dollars less per month and the United States economy would fall into a recession so is it possible for an outbreak to cause you to spend eighty seven dollars less per month you might be causing a recession thanks so much for watching this video make sure to check out the links down below for my awesome programs on Finance psychology money and real estate also if you want to free stocks - totally free stocks check out the link down below for a weeble weeble is going to give you two free stocks valued up to $1400 if you deposit just $100 with their investment platform if you use that link down below you'll also be saying thank you to me and that I will also be thanked by weeble for you joining their platform and them giving you 2 free stock]
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