저자: TheElectricViking · 외국인
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NIO 주가가 실적 발표 후 약 10% 급락한 가운데 캐시 우드의 ARK Invest가 NIO 주식 42만 주(약 840만 달러, 펀드 보유 비중 약 0.5%)를 매수했다고 소개한다. 발언자는 3월 15일 주당 13~14달러대에 매수했고 현재 19~21달러 수준이라며 여전히 저평가라고 주장한다. 실적 및 인도량: 2021년 4분기 차량 매출은 전년 대비 50% 증가한 92.2억 위안, 총매출은 99억 위안이다. 2021년 연간 인도량은 91,430대(전년 대비 110% 증가)다. 2022년 1월·2월 인도량은 합산 15,780대이며, 발언자는 3~12월 월평균 12~13,000대 인도로 연간 약 19만 대를 예상한다. 1분기 인도 가이던스는 25~26,000대다. 수익성: 차량 마진은 2021년 4분기 21%로 전년 대비 3.7%p 상승했다. 발언자는 이를 근거로 2023년 흑자 전환을 예상한다. 또한 NIO의 평균 판매가격이 중국 대형 업체 중 가장 높아 프리미엄 브랜드 인식이 마진 우위로 이어진다고 본다. 목표가 및 전망: TipRanks 기준 애널리스트 18명 중 16명 매수·2명 보유, 평균 목표가 45.5달러다. 발언자는 연말까지 주가가 두 배로 오를 것이라고 예측하며, 최소 38달러 도달만으로도 상승 여력이 충분하다고 본다. 비교 종목: ARK는 2021년 말 XPeng(샤오펑)도 928,648주(약 2,700만 달러) 매수했으며, 같은 날 중국 전기차 업체 주가가 함께 폭락해 발언자도 XPeng을 매수했다고 밝힌다. 한편 ARK는 같은 날 테슬라 146,000주(약 1.47억 달러)를 매도했다. 리스크: 단기 인도 가이던스 약세, 반도체 공급 차질, 전 세계 전기차 생산 지연 가능성이 주요 리스크로 언급된다. 발언자는 리스크 대비 보상 비율이 유리하다고 판단한다. 출연자 전망 요약: NIO 연말 주가 약 2배 상승 예상, 3월 이후 인도량 회복 가능성, 2023년 흑자 전환 전망. 발언자 본인이 해당 주식을 보유 중이며, 시청자에게 투자 판단은 스스로 하라고 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
on the same day that neo released its earnings and its stock price crashed by 10 percent kathy wood bought 8.4 million shares in the company or nearly 1 of all neo stock hello my friends welcome to the channel i'm the electric viking yes i do actually have viking ancestry my uncle told me a story today about our ancestors in england their name started with an o my mother's maiden name started with an o and he said he went to england on a holiday to actually find out and learn about our viking ancestry which is quite interesting to hear i'll share that story with you on another video welcome to all the new subscribers great to have you welcome back everyone else this is a fairly new channel been around for still less than a year but we have made more than a thousand videos about electric vehicles about battery technology and about the automotive industry what's going to happen in the future what is the disruption going to be like what's going to change what's the world going to look like in a decade from now so if you want to know more about that make sure you subscribe click on that notifications icon and you'll find out about all the things that are happening in the world of electric cars now over the past year we've seen many investors ask kathy wood if she would buy neo and she hadn't done so until now i personally bought neo stock when it fell down to 13 us dollars on the 15th of march i picked up the stock at about 14 us dollars it's since bounced up to 22 us dollars but now it has dropped down to 19 us dollars and obviously kathy wood decided now was the time to buy and i mean they didn't just buy a little bit they bought quite a lot of neo stock interesting to see it was a bit of surprise to me that neo stock fell by nearly 10 on the same day that they reported their earnings which were actually pretty good arc invest managed by kathy wood bought 420 000 shares of neo through its arc autonomous tech and robotics exchange traded front or rq on friday worth about 8.4 million us dollars and that represents 0.5 percent of the funds total holdings iconvest actually revealed the trade in a daily trade alert email and its official website has not been updated with a change in art queues holdings as of today now why is this interesting well arc had already purchased a lot of shares in tesla sold a lot purchased a lot sold a lot purchased a lot that also already bought x-punk and byd but they had yet to buy any stock of neo so it is interesting in the sense that this is the first time they've decided to buy neo when they already held significant positions in those other electric vehicle companies one interesting comment that kathy wood made that i don't think anyone's really talked about is a comment that she actually made in february of 2021 last year when she said that neo's battery swapping concept will win the day in china now i want to point out to you that kathy woods fund also bought x punk as its shares continued to fall late last year they bought 928 648 shares of exponent worth twenty seven million u.s dollars and one point six point three percent of their position but interestingly ex-punk stock has also fallen dramatically since kathy wood purchased the stock and well i tried to take advantage of this as much as i could on the same day that all the chinese evmakers stock prices crashed i bought some stock of exponent and it's rebounded pretty significantly since i bought x-punk stock but still neon x-punk are currently very very undervalued interestingly right arc invest sold 146 000 shares of tesla on friday with about 147 million so they essentially went from holding tesla selling some tesla stock in order to buy neo stock i mean that's not entirely the full picture but clearly that's part of what actually happened now to give you some context on neo stock on the 30th of june 2021 it hit 53 us dollars on the 15th of march it fell to 14.93 today it's currently sitting at 21 us dollars and i still think it's basically a bargain considering that the company has proven it can deliver large numbers of quality electric cars i personally believe that neo will deliver around 190 000 electric vehicles this year throughout europe and china but shares of neo revalued lower after the chinese electric vehicle company submitted its earnings for the final quarter of full year 2021 at the end of last week the plunge occurred mainly due to neo's first quarter 22 delivery forecast which was considered weak longer term however neo is going to ramp up production of their electric suvs and sedan models aggressively and the stock has a lot of potential to revalue much higher i think it will likely double in value by the end of this year in fact that's my prediction and i'm sticking with it in essence this 10 drop just gives you an opportunity to buy in at a lower price and it clearly shows that investors are a little bit too affected by short-term delivery forecasts for example clearly a lot of people just don't understand the reality of the chinese car market january and february are the two slowest months of the year february is by far the worst month of the year every year for the last 20 years and i think people just don't understand that fact and they're going to be shocked and surprised by the actual deliveries that come by the end of the year how many vehicles did they actually deliver this year well neo delivered a total of 15 780 evs mostly ear sixes in january and february this was largely because of chinese holidays and a shorter trading month in february february's normally probably two and a half weeks of the month people actually trade i believe that neo will likely deliver an average of around 12 to 13 000 evs per month for the rest of the year averaged out between march to december let's have a quick look at neo's deliveries in december of last year well december of 2021 now delivered 10 490 electric cars giving them a december year-on-year growth of 49.7 in january they delivered 9652 giving them a euro near growth in january of 34 neo is saying that they will deliver between 25 and 26 000 electric vehicles in the first quarter of this year that will be an increase of around about 25 to 30 percent depending on the number compared to the same quarter last year so like i said i believe neo will deliver upwards of 190 000 electric vehicles this year realistically near stock price has made it look like the company isn't doing very well like it's having massive troubles but the reality is it actually is vehicle sales surged 50 year-over-year to 9.22 billion chinese yen in the fourth quarter which calculates at 1.45 billion us dollars while total revenues increased 50 percent year-over-year to 9.9 billion chinese yen which is 1.55 billion in my view what is more important than that though and one of the reasons that neo stands out against other rival electric car companies is their margins now in spite of neo's production and delivery ramp challenges and chip supply problems in 2021 vehicle margins are increasing quickly in the fourth quarter of 2021 neo's vehicle margins increased to 21 adding 3.7 pp year over year meaning neo is becoming more profitable on a per vehicle production basis that is the most important thing here profitability per vehicle we don't know that legacy auto can actually make a single cent from the sales to the evs yet none of them have said that they can we don't know if they can it's like it's really the one of those guessing games but we know that neo will be able to do that what does this mean i believe this means that neo will actually show a profit in 2023 neo actually grew their deliveries by 110 for the full year of 2021 to 91 430 electric vehicles and they've got significant momentum on their side for a few reasons one of those selling their vehicles in europe the second new vehicles both the et5 and the et7 which are coming this year in china now the asian investor i'll put a link in the description below to his page says that neo's commercial prospects in the chinese electric vehicle market are undervalued and friday's 10 drop in neo's valuation is completely undeserved he says neo has become too cheap especially considering that neo traded at a much higher market capitalization to sales ratio in 2021.
what are the risks with this company though there are some well neo has short term timeline and production risks computer chip supply issues affected factory output in the global auto industry in 2021 and they are still at risk for neo and other electric vehicle manufacturers but interestingly enough chinese ev manufacturers appear to not have been affected by chip supply shortages anywhere near as much as legacy auto or other car companies outside of china neo actually lowered its delivery forecast in 2021 due to a strained semiconductor supply situation if the flow of computer chips which are vital for ev production gets disrupted even more neo may grow electric vehicle production and deliveries not as fast as anticipated which could further add pressure on the firm's valuation that's a possibility now personally i think the risk versus reward ratio is just skewed too heavily versus rewards that's why i've invested in the company the production outlook for neo in the first quarter indicates a large rebound in march and this in my view will definitely start to sway investors if neo actually does deliver 190 000 electric vehicles this year that would mean year-on-year growth of 100 and that is the kind of growth that causes disruption and obviously some measure of excitement for investors now i just had a quick look at tip ranks for the analyst price targets for neo 16 of 18 analysts so that neo is a buy two set to hold the average price between those 18 analysts gives neo a price of 45.50 which is well over double what it is today even if the stock doesn't come close to hitting that number it could still potentially double in value we only have to get to around 38 us dollars which is still seven us dollars below those analysts in other words it has huge upside i just can't see neo's stock price going down much more it's already collapsed through the floor massively over the past six months and realistically the risk to reward ratio like i said before looks really heavily skewed toward reward now this is just my personal opinion which has led me to buy the stock so obviously don't go and buy the stock just because i said so do your own research and then make your own decisions based on that research but i mean look kathy wood agrees with me not saying she's got or anything i mean obviously she hasn't made all the right decisions in every instance but she certainly has made some big plays even though in the last six months obviously arc invest funds have dropped a lot still they've done very well over the last five years and it's the long term here we go we're investing for long-term growth here will neo be a company that will still be around in 10 years in my view absolutely key point here that i can't emphasize enough is the reality that neo is significantly improving its bottom line in other words it is going to be profitable on a per unit basis very soon why would it be profitable key thing is here right the market precision he goes vehicles as premium their average sales price is the highest of any vehicle manufacturer in china right any mainstream vehicle manufacturer that's selling more than a thousand vehicles a month neo is the highest average seller so the market perceives now as premium they have the ability to charge a premium price for their products and that gives them the ability to make better margins than the competition thanks for watching i'll see you again on the next one bye-bye
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