저자: PeterLynch·WarrenBuffett발언모음 · 외국인
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주식 매도 시점에 대한 두 투자 대가의 견해를 정리한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 매도는 주가 등락이 아니라 투자 근거(사업 펀더멘털·경쟁우위)가 훼손됐는지를 기준으로 해야 한다. 피터 린치: 가장 큰 실수는 좋은 기업을 너무 일찍 파는 것이다. 토이저러스(20배 상승 전 매도), 홈디포 매도를 대표적 실수로 꼽았다. 경기순환주는 실적이 회복될 때 팔고, 성장주는 10년·20년 성장 스토리가 유효한 동안 보유한다. 주가가 떨어졌다고 사는 것은 위험하며, 빚 없는 기업이 몇 배로 하락한 사례(카이저 인더스트리)를 통해 사업 이해 없이 가격만 보고 매매하면 안 된다고 강조했다. 워런 버핏: 기업은 사업을 이해하고 장기 성장을 보고 산다. 시장 지수 수준과 무관하게 좋은 기업은 성과를 낸다. 버크셔는 워싱턴포스트(1973), 코카콜라(1988), 질레트(1989), 아메리칸익스프레스(1991)를 장기 보유하고 있으며, 매도는 더 좋은 투자처가 필요하거나 경쟁우위가 약화됐다고 판단할 때 한다. 신문·네트워크TV 산업의 해자 약화가 대표 사례다. 리스크: 매도 기준이 주관적 판단(경쟁우위 재평가)에 의존하며, 판단이 틀릴 수 있다는 점을 두 사람 모두 인정했다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 맥도날드·디즈니에 대해 버핏은 '좋은 미래'라고 언급했으나 가격 전망은 아님.
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knowing when to sell stock is arguably the hardest question to answer in all of investing there seems to be countless books articles and videos focused on how to analyze a stock and when you should buy a particular stock however there is much less attention research and thought given to a concept that is just as important when should you sell a stock in your portfolio just like any other question i have related to investing i turn to the investors i respect the most to see how they approach the problem in this case it is both peter lynch and warren buffett every investor has faced this dilemma maybe the stock price has declined from where you bought it and you need to determine whether to give up and sell or hold on for recovery or maybe you want the stocks you bought shut up in price quickly and now you need to decide if you should sell and put the profits into a different stock check out these clips of peter lynch and warren buffett describing how they determine when is the right time to sell stock mak found this content interesting when you were actively managing money you presumably are under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well i think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose 100 i've done that but your great mistakes are selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold like on the 10 baggers so some of my mistakes are saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold after i sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a growth company you have to say walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the united states and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23.
so for the next four decades then around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story a 20-year story i'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in america have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you would have made a lot of money johnson johnson you want to make a lot of money gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world don't bat a thousand i sometimes get angry male particularly during bear markets saying so-and-so recommended such-and-such and it went down well how often did you come up with a clinker well this this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose twenty to thirty percent so when you buy a psychiatrist yourself how much can i lose and how much can i make and you ought to be able to make a lot because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further gonna go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record but ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's kind of 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18.
and this is coming with no debt i mean as it comes it was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 a year to 16. i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14.
i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16. how much lower can i go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10. well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i unfortunately have rapidly i would probably be still caddying or being working at the stop and shot but it happened fast i was able to this and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kaiser aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast and they own kaiser santa gravel kaiser engineers they owned jeep they owned business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this worked out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and guys meant they passed our chairs and cars aluminum they passed out their public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists haven't worked so far i've never seen them running in the side the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this listed for the uh with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so i they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down you have said that your favorite time to own a stock is forever yet you sold mcdonald's and disney after not owning them for long how do you decide when to hold forever and when to sell and also are you and mr monker wearing fruit of the looms charlie i i think i better answer the question i can answer unequivocally i am wearing fruit of the loom and i'm not sure whether charlie wears underwear do you i am i haven't bought any new underwear in a long time and therefore i'm inappropriately attired he's waiting for a discount don't let him kid you well the answer it's a very good question about selling i mean we it's not our natural inclination to sell and on the other hand uh and and we have held the washington post stock since 1973.
uh i've never sold a share of berkshire having bought the first shares in 1962 um and we've held coke stock since 1988 we've held gillette stocks since 1989 held american express stock since 1991 we had actually previously been an american express one in in the 60s and disney so there there are companies we're familiar with we generally sell by we would sell if we needed money for something else but that has not been the problem the last 10 or 15 years that 40 years ago my sales were all because i found something that i liked even better i hated to sell what i sold but i but i also didn't want to borrow money so i would reluctantly sell something that i thought was terribly cheap to buy something that was even cheaper those were the times when i had more ideas than money now i've got more money than ideas and that's a different equation so now we sell really when we think that we've when we're re-evaluating the the economic characteristics of the business in other words if you take them don't want to name names but they take it take a stock we've sold of some sort we probably had one view of the long-term competitive advantage of the company at the time we bought it and we may have modified that that doesn't mean we think that the company is going into some disastrous period or anything remotely like that we think mcdonald's has a fine future we think disney has a fine future and there are others but we probably don't think that their competitive advantage uh is as strong as we might have thought as we thought it was when we initially made the decision that may mean that we were wrong when we made the decision originally it may mean that we're wrong now and and that their strengths are every bit as what they were before uh but for one reason another we we think that the strengths may have been eroded to some degree either classy case on that would be the newspaper industry generally for example i mean in 1970 if charlie and i were looking at the newspaper business we felt it was about as impregnable a franchise as could be found we still think it's quite a business but we do not think the franchise in 2002 is the same as it was in 1970 we do not think the franchise of a network television station in 2002 is the same as it was in 1965 and those beliefs change quite gradually and and and who knows whether they're precise you know whether they're right even but but that is the reason in general that we sell now
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