저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
집 로저스는 중국 경기 둔화와 부동산 거품 우려에도 중국 장기 낙관론을 유지했다. 그는 미국과 유럽의 사회 불안이 중국보다 더 커질 것이라고 보았다. 미국 인플레이션은 악화될 것이며 연준(버냉키)은 신뢰도가 0이라고 강하게 비판했다. 연준이 계속 돈을 찍어내고 있어 실물자산 보유가 필요하다고 주장했다. 그는 원자재·천연자원 중심으로 투자하고 있으며, 경기가 회복되면 원자재 부족으로 수익이 나고 경기가 회복되지 않으면 연준이 더 많은 돈을 찍어 원자재 가격이 오를 것이라고 설명했다. 금은 11년 연속 상승 후 조정 중이며, 하락하면 더 사겠다고 밝히며 금을 팔지 않겠다고 했다. 원유는 세계 확인매장량 감소로 가격이 높게 유지될 것이라고 보았으나, 천연가스가 풍부하고 자동차 연료가 전환될 수 있어 장기적으로는 석유 시대가 끝날 수 있다고 인정했다. 다만 원자재 강세장이 곧 끝나지는 않는다고 봤다. 미국 대선과 관련해 오바마와 롬니 모두 차이가 없으며 양당 모두 현재 부채 위기를 만든 책임이 있다고 비판했다. 이 영상은 2012년 방송 자막이며 예측 대상 자산의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 구체적 발언은 없다. 장기 원자재 강세 전망이 주된 내용이다.
다듬은 글
thank you very much Jim Rogers chairman of George's holdings and B land interests and um you are a co-founder of the Quantum Fund you are noted China fan and a big bull on China are you worried about the instability caused by the boshi lie scandal I don't know worried about that I'm worried about everything whatever I'm an investor yes that if you ask me I'm sure that in five years we will look back and have forgotten all about it there other things that one can worry about in China that doesn't worry me so if that doesn't worry you in China and this is the biggest turmoil they've seen socially we're being told since 1989 which was a big event it was the Tiananmen Square massacre and uprising what does what are you about China but I mean they've been trying to cool economy off for three years now they've been trying to pop a real estate bubble they seem to be successful at it it may get out of control and spread to other to many other parts of the economy I'm worried about that I'm worried about inflation in China I've worried about the fact that the currency is not convertible yet and it should be plenty of things to worry about I'm worried that slowing growth in China is is gonna cause more unrest with with the population now because population has grown to expect a certain level of growth and a certain increase in their standard of living and you know if they don't get that and the government isn't legitimate because it's not democratically elected do we see a big a bigger uprising and real turmoil you're already seeing demonstrations in China thousands of them every year which they acknowledge and that's been going on even during good times but Simon I'm more worried about those kind of problems in the US and Europe this is where the social unrest is going to be worse Europe is where it's going to be red worse we don't have thousands of protests like they do in China every year you think it's gonna be worse here and in Europe I would suspect that when the economic conditions get worse here and get worse in Europe we're gonna see you've seen government's fail in Europe you've seen countries fail in Europe nice things I suspect you're gonna see more of it yes well when we saw pictures in Greece of sort of fire bombings and sort of the stones being thrown of the police and running battles do you expect to see that here in in the US maybe maybe on maybe down here in New York City we saw it in London we've seen it in several countries in Europe in the last year or two yes I expect to see it here too if you don't then you should look out the window okay well earlier today we had Ben Bernanke talking at his press conference about the feds decision to hold interest rates where they are he said something about inflation as we said the concern we have is that if inflation were to run well above 2% for a protracted period that the the credibility and the well anchored inflation expectations which are such a valuable asset that the Federal Reserve might become eroded and that was Ben Bernanke from earlier today so I'm credibility and the Fed I mean it might become eroded did do you hold the cloud much credibility in high regard perhaps mr.
Bernanke has that's zero credibility as far as I'm concerned the Federal Reserve has zero credibility címon go back and look at everything mr. Bernanke has said in the last seven or eight years he's been in watch he has never been right about anything man has zero credibility for anybody who would take the time to look at his history so what do what do you worry about particularly with inflation do you think inflation here in the US is gonna get out of control do you think the Fed will be unable to control it and and and and keep it under wraps absolutely they've been printing staggering amounts of money they've taken staggering amounts of debt onto their balance sheet much of it is garbage the federal government is spending huge amounts of money they don't have we have inflation in the US it's going to get worse I mean it's it's gonna get wasn't and how are you investing based on that on that particular situation and then let's bring back China I mean how do you think that's gonna affect you're in it in investing outlook I mean where are you putting your money I mainly own raw materials natural resources because in times of inflation well let's put it this way when if the economy gets better they're gonna be shortages of those raw materials and I'm going to make money if the economy doesn't get better Simon then they're gonna print a lot more money mr.
Bernanke doesn't know anything else to do except print money and throughout history when governments have debates the currency you protect yourself by owning real assets whether it's silver or rice or whatever it happens to be so what about two big big that a lot of people look our oil and gold are you bullish on those two I own both of them I would expect gold gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual for any asset it is consolidating it wouldn't surprise me if it continued to consolidate if it goes down a lot more I hope I buy a lot more I'm not selling my gold by any stretch of the imagination the surprise with oil is going to be how high it stays and how it goes Simon the International Energy Agency has done a study the world's known reserves of oil or in steady decline we have to find a lot of oil or the price of oil is going to go to our good-byes this oil that does true though but we have natural gas in vast quantities here in the US and it's getting lower and lower every time they look at the price of natural gas cars can be converted to that there could be a lot more maybe oils the thing of the past I mean does that does that worry I mean does that worry you on that front everything you just said is true someday and maybe cars will run on them who knows what someday yes all of that's going to happen yes the bull market in gold in the oil and commodities won't end someday but some days still a long way away ok about the forthcoming coming election who do you see as the most viable candidate to fix America's problems that you have talked about in the past which is a massive indebtedness and and things like that neither of the neither of the two who seem to be thumbs down to both almost the same there's no what's the difference in Obama and what's-his-name of Romney except the ones from Boston and ones from ones from Chicago you see absolutely no difference but essentially no difference no it's the same old thing the Republicans and Democrats for decades who had the same old thing for the most Simoneaux parks on both of their houses they're the ones of God on both of the houses Hawks on both of their houses they're the ones who got us into this situation when I was a child America was the largest creditor nation in the world now with the largest debtor nation in the history of the world yes a pox on both of their houses well we'll leave it that Jim Rogers famed investor saying a pox on both the houses off Mitt Romney and Barack Obama
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