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The price of Bitcoin is around $63,000. And yesterday, of course, we saw the price of Bitcoin plummet. In my free Telegram channel, we opened deals for both falling and rising prices. We made money in both directions. And I still don't understand why you don't just join? Honestly, I'm really good at my job.
Now we already have 6,100 participants there. And every day I post what I do. The US market opened the other day. I opened a short position for 1.5 bitcoins. Nothing special. The short became increasingly profitable. And we recorded a profit . Profit was made. The first deal has closed, again , today is only Friday.
A small amount, $1,200. Not bad. So I decided to play on the opposite side. And the situation was getting better and better. This deal is still open and is yielding good results. So the question is, do we expect the market to rise this weekend? Why were there $4 billion in short positions opened without any long positions?
Why is everyone shorting the market so aggressively this morning? You wouldn't know about this yet unless you're in the Advantage group, because we were analyzing the volume data this morning, and frankly, it's just crazy. We have n't seen such sentiments in a long time, and it's unclear why this is happening on the eve of the weekend .
But if you remember yesterday's video, I said we're going to look at what Michael Burry was saying this week, because he's been posting a lot on his paid group. I thought it would be interesting to delve into what Michael Burry is doing , because AI has, of course, started to become cheaper. Is Michael Burry exiting assets or increasing his trading volumes?
So keep watching, like this video, turn on channel notifications, follow the link in the description, scroll down, join my free Telegram and join the "From 7,000 to a million dollars" challenge. More information about this is available in my Telegram group. We're running a challenge where we 're trying to turn $7,000 into a million.
It was $10,000 at first, but we got off to a bad start , and it got worse because every other deal I made was over $3,000. So, my name is Jordan. I am a very, very experienced trader. I've been doing this for so long, I'm 30 years old. I'm finally 30. Now they'll finally stop calling me the kid in my mom's basement.
Of course, this isn't my mom's basement. It's much nicer here. My mom's basement is constantly flooding. So, with that said, here is the current Bitcoin price and 15- minute chart. Last week, at the end of the week, the price of Bitcoin fell very significantly. We've already started doing that, which means we'll probably do that before we do more of that.
Having said all that, lines, no matter how good they are and no matter how logical they seem, lines give you data and information that is available to anyone at any time. I realized that we needed more than just lines. We have to watch the money. So, ETF outflows yesterday: minus 4,100 bitcoins. BlackRock sold 1,890 bitcoins.
Grayscale sold 812 bitcoins. Fidelity sold 846 bitcoins. ARK Invest sold 270 bitcoins. BITB sold 270 bitcoins. Yesterday everyone was selling Bitcoin. And now the entire market is terrified of these devices because the devices themselves are secure, but the way their private key is generated is not.
The owners of these wallets have already lost over $70 million. Yesterday it was $38 million. We have a huge problem with Gorilla, a really huge one. All these old Bitcoiners who used this old Bitcoin wallet—none of their Bitcoins are safe. And anyone can break them. And you can do it too , by the way.
All you have to do is go to ChatGPT and ask a few questions about how this software generated this private key. This was no accident, so you can decrypt private keys with this wallet. There are over half a million such wallets in circulation. 1,200 wallets have already been hacked. More than 1,000 bitcoins were withdrawn from them .
And I think that makes a difference for ETFs. I think if you consider yourself an institutional wallet holder, you held your funds in this institutional wallet that you purchased yourself, and you held the funds yourself, instead of leaving them on Coinbase or investing in ETFs. You are just rich. And you 're looking at this, and then your friend calls you and says, "Hey, um, yeah, I just lost all my Bitcoin.
It just got taken out of my wallet." What will you do? You're getting rid of your spot Bitcoin and moving your exposure into a Bitcoin ETF, which means that on Monday, as strange as it may sound since we just fell, we could fall even lower due to the lack of confidence in Bitcoin and this increased selling pressure that comes from these hacks.
Meanwhile , at the same time, we continue to see positive flows into Bitcoin ETFs from people losing confidence. But that's not pure profit , if that makes sense, for crypto, because that money is simply moving from one place to another. In fact, it's a net loss because the place they can move to has a fee, an annual management fee.
The thing is , my brain is working at full capacity today. Honestly, I spent so much time Look how long this article is that Michael Berry wrote. This is incredibly deep material about how numbers work, how everything around us works. And, frankly , it's a mathematician's dream. The problem with this particular article is that it would take me about 2 hours to film all of this, and no one is going to watch a 2- hour video with a deep dive into the numbers.
And what Michael Berry has done in the last few days is he has published two interesting things. Ah, he released an update on the stock. We'll break down Michael Berry's stock updates in this video. Let's see what he bought and sold. And then either tomorrow, or in my Telegram, I've already briefly gone over this in my Telegram.
This morning I wrote a section called "Michael Berry Explains Why Today's Markets Refuse to Stay Down." And he talks about how buying pressure keeps coming back into the market through these mechanical purchases that happen every time the price of something drops. Be sure to join Telegram if you want to read about it.
Yes, we will update on the promotions today. Maybe we'll do this in more detail in the video. But for now, let's get back to the data today. And as we can see, funding rates for Bitcoin are actually negative. And it's strange, because look at this, right? Look at this. This is today's Bitcoin volume overview.
Let's refresh the data to get the most current numbers , and we see that Bitcoin spot trading volume has dropped to 2.33 billion. Bitcoin futures volume fell to $32.55 billion. This is currently around 6.5% of what is exactly the same as our 30-day volume distribution, essentially showing no change.
The reason we care about the 30-day average volume distribution statistic is that if you are running spot volume above your 30-day average, it means that spot volume is driving the market. If the indicators are below this level, it means that the market is driven by futures volume . So when you look at these things and the volume distribution , it usually shows clearly what's going on.
The strangest thing for us right now is that yes, we are in a futures-dominated market, and yes, futures have 55% of the selling pressure. That's a 10 percent difference between selling pressure and buying pressure right now, and that's abnormal, especially on the eve of the weekend. And when we look at the spot volume here, we see that the spot volume is actually buying right now.
And you should always take sides, if you want to be a profitable trader, you should support the spot market. The spot market is real money. The futures market is debt. Debt always reverts to the mean, and the mean is set by spot markets. But this whole situation gets even weirder when you look at the spot volume here.
You see this massive jump up in spot volume, and since then we've seen a massive drop in spot volume. But last night, about 4 hours before this video was shot , you can see a giant jump in futures volume, and that jump was entirely driven by short positions. Now we see that when we look at the ratio of longs to shorts over the last 24 hours, we have a 55% bias towards shorts.
But over the last 12 hours, we have a 64% bias towards shorts, with $3 billion more shorts than longs. And over the last 4 hours, this tendency persists, even during the last hour. So we look at the Bitcoin balances on exchanges today and we see that Bitcoin balances are increasing. This is usually a bearish signal.
We look at USDT balances on exchanges and see that USDT balances are falling. And again, this is usually a bearish signal. So, we look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map on a 3- month chart to get a long-term view of the state of the market, and you can see that as the price has fallen, it has formed liquidity above the price, and this is the liquidity level formed at the $80,000 mark.
We also formed a liquidity level below $50,000. When we move to a much lower timeframe, like the monthly chart, all of these ranges become much less attractive, and you see that the price of Bitcoin is effectively sandwiched between two major liquidity levels. So, let's go down. We look at the weekly heatmap of Bitcoin liquidations, and it shows a huge range of liquidations just below the current price, around $62,000.
So, what are the chances of this happening? Well, the thing is, when you keep lowering the timeframes and go to even 24 hours, you see —look, a huge liquidation range at 62 thousand. Next, we look at the Bitcoin aggregate open interest chart. And on the Bitcoin aggregate open interest chart, we get the information .
Yesterday I showed you this level of support. I was showing that we were losing support and saying that we were likely to go down . We did just that. We traded on the dip, we traded on the bounce, and we made money. So, that's good. Subscribe to the channel. On this first bearish candlestick that you see here, we had a fluctuation in aggregate open interest where we saw a rise in open interest followed by a fall.
This is because the candle starts from a lower point. A bunch of short positions came in, then a bunch of long positions came out, and that pushed the price down. Then we saw liquidity increase on the next bearish candle, meaning that many opened shorts in the range between 63,200 and 62,600. A bunch of short positions entered in this range.
Next, we see that the candle continues to go down, and liquidity still continues to increase, which means that new short positions are entering this range. And then the price is pushed up by longs, and a certain profit fixation occurs. But nowhere in this have we seen a massive bias towards those who are shorting the market.
However, even my website now registers these short positions in the futures market. And this makes me wonder: is this Leopold Aschenbrenner's Bitcoin position being liquidated on a weekend market with low liquidity while the price is held between two levels? As you can see, the price of Bitcoin is very compressed right now.
It has barely moved $100 in the last 12 hours, and yet we are seeing significant growth either in closing long positions or opening short ones. Now it is much more likely that this is a closing of long positions. So, today's analysis raises more questions than it answers, because we see a bunch of open positions, but we don't understand why it doesn't even move the price.
But since it's the weekend, we can identify this zone as a sideways zone and just write it off by asking ourselves, " Okay, what has been the dominant trend lately?" Well, on a 15-minute chart with a 50-day and 200-day moving average, when you break out and start trading above the 50th moving average, the price usually goes up to the 200th.
And this happened again and again throughout this entire period of price decline. You see: the price starts trading above 50, rises, reaches 200 and falls back down. It starts trading above 50, rises, reaches 200, breaks through it, and then turns back down again . The same thing here, and most likely, at least to begin with, the same thing should happen here.
All of this is definitely setting us up for a very exciting Monday. But anyway, let's move on to what Michael Burry did last week. So, on my birthday , July 30th, Michael Burry released this stock update and actually said he was increasing some of his positions, like in Zortif, I have no idea what that is.
Lululemon is where I buy my black t- shirts. The funny thing is that Michael Burry has a 50% loss on this position in Lululemon. If you look at Michael Burry's portfolio, you can see that his average purchase price is 238, and his average holding price is now 118, because that's the market price. He doubled his position size and it didn't work in his favor.
It seems like Michael Burry and I buy T-shirts from the same people. But before we analyze the article about Michael Burry, I want to explain why it's important. Recently, Citadel Securities took over Leopold Aschenbrenner's portfolio. So Leopold had a long position in AI shares worth $45 billion, using $10 billion in collateral.
So Citadel Securities comes along, gives him $10 billion to buy $ 45 billion worth of positions. Only they do n't give him 10 billion, they buy it at a discount, give him 8 billion and buy positions for 45 billion. Leopold's problem is that it's normal to have $45 billion in positions, but if those positions start to fall, the bank demands more collateral.
So, the moment the bank demands more collateral, you have to provide it, and he couldn't, so he had to hand over his portfolio to someone who could. And that's exactly what's going to happen to Michael Saylor, probably this year, maybe next year, but at some point in the next few years, it's going to happen to him, because it happens to anyone who uses too much leverage.
And Michael Saylor and his Bitcoins use leverage. Now , if you know about Michael Burry, Michael Burry is a stock man. He is, I already mentioned it, the same guy from the movie "The Downside Game." We discussed what his bets were, because he's betting against the market, he's betting massively against AI.
And my interest yesterday was whether Michael Burry is still holding short positions or is he taking profits? Because earlier this year he said he expected a 30% drop and then everything would go up again. Well, AI technically fell by 30%, not the entire market, but certain segments of it. And to answer that question: Michael Burry has increased his put options on QQQ, which expire on January 15, 2027.
Put options with a strike price in the $500 range on Nvidia. Again, during the crash the other day, Michael Burry increased his put options to a strike range just above $100. So, he expects Nvidia's price to fall to $100. It is now $160 by the end of this year. He also opened more short positions in Micron, even though Micron had already fallen significantly.
He opened more short positions on SOXX. I don't even know what that is. But when I read Michael Burry's reports this morning, and I posted them again in a Telegram group that you should join and read, Michael Burry is not covering anything. Michael Burry believes things will get much worse. And he talks about the credit spiral, and I agree.
Now the credit spiral occurs for many reasons. Michael Burry has issued a new warning on Nvidia and Micron stocks. Well, that's what we just talked about. But why does a credit spiral occur? Well, when you buy stocks, most people do it through credit ETFs. Most people don't just buy stocks. They buy leveraged stocks to increase their profits because they sincerely believe they will grow.
The problem is that in the history of the stock market, there has never been a market so deregulated and overly leveraged. This partly explains why the market, according to Michael Bury, continues to hold. As access to leverage has become significantly greater, this means that the market has access to support.
You can use leverage to buy something you can't afford to stop the price from falling and prevent a market crash. This is not necessarily a smart solution, but you can definitely stop certain processes using leverage. The problem is that the most influential financial blogger right now is saying, "You know, don't buy all this." And that's one of the reasons why prices are really coming down.
But the main reason is that they don't print money. They are going to raise interest rates. The probability of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting has now increased to 67%. And what does that mean? This means that the cost of borrowing is increasing. And what is everyone doing in the field of AI? They borrow.
Do they make any money? No. Reporting season was terrible. So, all these people borrow a lot of money, earn nothing, and can't repay the debt because the business is unprofitable. This leaves several options. The first and main option is to use an initial public offering (IPO) to sell shares, raise funds for the business, and show it as profit.
But if you do that, you're going to be ripping off a lot of money from retail investors. And if you drain their money , they won't be able to afford your product. In addition, you risk collapsing the market for your product. So, again , I've spent a lot of time with Michael Bury today, but the gist of his position is that we're not close to bottom yet.
It's still a long way to the bottom . Kevin Warsh is having trouble convincing other Fed members not to raise rates. This person is still not in control of the situation. He started something he can't finish, and the situation is only getting worse. In my opinion, this is fascinating. So, fintech broker ClearStreet offered investors access to shares of AI giant Databricks at a pre-IPO valuation of $188 billion.
Sounds interesting, doesn't it? But that's not true. Please don't invest your money in this. This is the same thing that happened with altcoins in 2021 . I've been through this in my life. I've already lost everything once. I wasn't an altcoin. I was very successful. I had to return everything. But the only reason they are opening is because these are deals that are usually reserved for private clients, celebrities, wealthy people.
The only reason they are opening these deals to all retail investors is the same as with altcoins—there is not enough liquidity in the community to support valuations of this size. Businesses are evaluated based on indicators that are focused on 10, 20, 30 years into the future. These ratings will decrease.
This will have a significant negative impact on our market, as well as the AI market, and the situation will worsen . Some of you may remember this company, FTX. Well, they're distributing user funds this weekend, which is great if you were an FTX user, but it was terrible at the time , and Michael Saylor will have to go through that someday.
So, as for what to expect from Bitcoin this weekend, we can only judge by the data , and we will be reading it on Telegram. And all my work this weekend is trying to create the perfect setup for a trade on Monday or Tuesday to turn $7,000 into $1 million; If you want to participate, use this weekend to prepare, click on the link and join the Telegram group.
I've also added a link to this guide in the video description, which shows how to complete the "$10,000 to a million" challenge. It also tells how I achieved this in the past, as I have already done it three times. This is a mathematically sound thing. As ridiculous as the challenge of turning $10,000 into a million sounds, I've achieved it three times out of over 20 attempts.
The success rate is about 15%. But this is taking into account the fact that we managed to reach the end. The real success rate in these challenges is close to 100%, because I've only dropped to zero twice in the entire time I've been doing this. And I've been doing this challenge for many years. So, if you want to participate in this, like the video.
Links and information are in the video description. And see you in the next video tomorrow. Bye.
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