저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 이 영상은 특정 자산의 가격 방향을 예측하지 않으며, 초보 투자자에게 회계·재무 독학과 기업 연구 방법을 조언하는 1999년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 발췌이다. [질문 배경] 질문자는 약 10년간 개인 주식투자를 해 왔고, 1990년 버크셔 주식 1주를 5,500달러에 사 3개월 만에 8,000달러 이상에 팔았다가 올해 7만 달러에 재매수했다고 밝힌다. 장기 보유 의사를 보이며 회계·재무 기초를 독학할 독서 목록을 요청한다. [버핏의 답변: 독서와 기업 연구] 버핏은 어린 시절 오마하 공공도서관의 투자·회계 책을 전부 빌려 읽었고, 그 과정에서 틀린 내용도 많이 배웠다고 말한다. 회계 특정 교재를 추천하기보다는 우량 경영 잡지와 신문 기사를 폭넓게 읽는 것이 효과적이라고 강조한다. 단일 책으로는 좋은 투자자가 될 수 없고, 방대한 독서가 필요하다고 말한다. 제품을 잘 아는 기업 5~10개를 골라 연차보고서와 최근 5~10년치 기사를 몰입해 읽으라고 권한다. 직원이 되거나 CEO로 고용되었거나 기업 전체를 인수하려는 것처럼 접근하라는 의미다. 읽은 뒤에는 '내가 아직 모르는 것은 무엇인가'를 스스로 묻는다. [취재 방식의 조사] 경쟁사, 현직·전직 직원, 공급업체, 유통업체, 고객 등을 인터뷰하라고 권한다. 이는 기자의 취재와 같은 조사 과정이라고 설명한다. '은탄환(silver bullet)' 질문을 활용하라고 한다. 경쟁사 업계 사람에게 '10년간 한 회사 주식에만 투자해야 한다면 어느 회사인가, 그 이유는 무엇인가'를 묻는 방식이다. 최종적으로는 '이 회사는 6개월 뒤 이 가치가 있다'는 이유를 담은 기사를 쓰듯 분석을 완성하라고 한다. 기업마다 분석 난이도가 다르므로 쉬운 기업을 고르라고 조언한다. [멍거의 답변: 자료와 사고방식] 멍거는 밸류라인(Value Line)의 대형 기업 역사 요약을 추천한다. 1,700개 기업의 자기자본이익률, 매출 성장률, 이익 추이를 보며 '왜 이런 일이 일어났는가, 누가 이를 허용했는가'를 묻고, 향후 10년 흐름을 머릿속으로 그려 보라고 말한다. 가격 차트보다 사업 운영의 흐름을 예측하는 것이 핵심이라고 강조한다. 핵심 질문은 '왜'이며, 이는 투자뿐 아니라 인생 전반에 적용된다고 말한다. 답을 깊은 이론 구조와 연결하고 주요 이론을 익혀야 하며, 다소 힘들지만 재미있는 과정이라고 마무리한다. [종목·자산 언급] 대상 자산 목록에 해당하는 종목이나 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인, 금리, 환율 등)에 대한 언급은 없다. 버크셔 해서웨이 자체와 GEICO에 대한 간접 언급만 있다. [리스크·조건] 특정 가격 전망이나 매수·매도 권유가 없다. 분석 과정은 질문자의 개인 판단에 맡겨져 있다. [출연자 전망] 버핏과 멍거는 가격 방향을 예측하지 않는다. 장기적 기업 분석과 학습 방법만 언급한다.
다듬은 글
eric tweedy from shavertown pennsylvania i i just want to express our appreciation regarding all the operating businesses that we've uh visited they've been very warm and hospitable in fact uh when we visited executive jets at the airport the the tour was so impressive my wife wanted to buy an airplane what's your name what's your name well i won't say that american express declined the five hundred thousand dollars we tried to put in my car you can thank the chairman for me next time you see him just kidding but um my question regards basically approach to investing i've been investing my own money in equities for uh for about 10 years uh and my uh results overall have been relatively good in the process however i've taught myself some very painful and costly lessons for instance my first equity ever purchased was a share of berkshire hathaway for fifty five hundred dollars in 1990 and i sold it three months later for something over eight thousand dollars and congratulated myself for the uh the rapid fruit profit and earlier this year i repurchased the same share for seventy thousand dollars uh and i intend to own it for the rest of my life so so you can see i'm growing um my question is i have no no formal education in accounting and finance and i would just like some advice from you regarding an approach to educate myself in in a reading list of basic texts obviously starting with the berkshire hathaway annual reports thank you i thank you particularly for your comments about the people from our operating companies because they have just been terrific they come out here you know they are here at five in the morning they i mean they do a tremendous amount of work over this weekend they're cheerful i i i've met with them all on saturday at lunch and i mean they're just one sensational group of people and uh um you know i'm very proud of them and the managers should be very proud of the people they've brought with us and i hope you get a chance to thank as many of them as possible personally instantly at the seeds counter you'll find angelica stoner who's been with us for 50 years and you know here she comes from california to help us out and sell peanut brittle and she's having a good time doing it and the question you ask is a very good one about you know in terms of accounting and finance what's the best way to teach yourself i i was always so interested in it from such a young age that that i my my approach was to go to the omaha originally was to go to the omaha public library and just take out every book there was on the subject and i learned a lot i learned a lot that wasn't true in the process too i got very interested in charting and all that sort of thing and buying stocks but but i i i did it by just a tremendous amount of uh reading but it was easy for me because you know it was like going to baseball games or something of the sort and in terms of naming specific texts in accounting and i think you may re you may want to read some of the better even magazine articles that have appeared i mean there's been there have been or newspaper articles there have been some some good commentary about accounting there uh i don't have can you think charlie of any specific texts or anything we can recommend i think both of us learn more from the great uh business magazines than we do anywhere else it's such an easy shorthand way of getting a vast variety of business experience just to riffle through issue after issue after issue covering a great variety of businesses and if you get the mental habit of relating what you're reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated you gradually accumulate some some wisdom about invest investing i don't think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading i don't think there's any one book that will do it for you you might think about picking out five or ten companies where you feel quite familiar with their products maybe but not necessarily so familiar with their financials and all of that but pick out something so at least you understand what if you understand their products you know what's going on in the business itself and then you know get lots of annual reports uh and through the internet or something else get all the magazine articles that have been written on it on those companies for five or ten years just sort of immerse yourself as if you were either going to work for the company or they'd hired you as the ceo or you're going to buy the whole business i mean you look at it in any of those ways and what and when you get all through ask yourself what do i not know that i need to know and back many years ago i would go around and i would talk to i would talk to competitors always you'd talk to employees of the company and ask those kind of questions that's in effect what i did with my friend laura davidson when i first met him at geico except i started from ground zero but i just kept asking him questions and that's what it really is one of the questions i would ask if i were interested in the abc company i would i would go to the xyz company and try and learn a lot about it now you you know there's spin on what you get but you learn to discern essentially you're being a reporter i mean it's very much like journalism and if you if you ask enough questions andy grove has in his book he talks about the silver bullet you know you talk to the competitor and you say if you had a silver bullet and you could only put it through the head of one of your competitors which one would it be and why well you'll learn a lot if you ask questions like that over time and ask yes somebody in the xyz industry and you say if you're going to go away for 10 years and you have to put all your money into one of your competitors the stock of one of your competitors not your own which one would it be and why just keep asking and asking and asking and you'll have to discount the answers you get in certain ways but you will be getting things poured into your head that then you can use to reformulate and and do your own thinking about why you why you evaluate this business at this or that the accounting you know you just sort of have to labor your way through that might i mean you may be able to take some courses even in that but the the biggest thing is to find out how businesses operate know who am i afraid of if if we're running geico you know who do we worry about why do we worry about them who would we like to put that silver bullet through i'm not going to tell you that the uh they you know it's it you keep asking those questions and then you go to the guy they want to put the silver bullet through and find out who he wants to put this over him it's like who wakes up the bugler you know and the irving berlin song and that's the uh that's the way you approach it and you'll be learning all the time uh you can talk to current employees ex-employees vendors suppliers distributors retailers i mean there's customers all all kinds of people and and you'll learn but it but it is a it's an investigative process it's a journalistic process and uh in the end you want to write the story i mean you're doing a journalistic enterprise and six months later you want to say the xyz company is worth this amount because and you just start in and write the story and some companies are easy to write stories about and other companies are much tougher to write stories about we try to look for the ones that are easy charlie yeah for the histories of the thousand biggest corporations uh laid out in digest form i think value line is in a class by itself that one volume really tells a lot about the histories of our of our best companies if you just look there's 1700 of them if you look at each page and you look at sort of what's happened in terms of return on equity in terms of in in terms of sales growth profit amount all kinds of things then you say why did this happen who let it happen you know what's what's that chart going to look like the next 10 years because that's what you're really trying to figure out not not not the price chart but the chart about business operation you you're trying to print the next 10 years of value line in your head and there's some companies that you can do a reasonable job with and there's others that are just too tough but that that's what the game is about and it can be a lot of i mean if you have some predilection toward it it can be a lot of fun i mean it's the the the the process is as much fun as as the conclusion that you come to of course what he's saying there when he talks about why that's the most important question of all and it doesn't apply just to investment it applies to the whole human experience you want to get smart the question you got to keep asking is why why why why and you have to relate the answers to us a structure of deep theory and you got to know the main theories and uh it's mildly laborious but it's also a lot of fun zone two
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