저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중국·아시아 시장의 글로벌 중요성은 앞으로 수십 년간 더 커질 것이며, 중국 경제는 수출 주도에서 소비 주도 구조로 전환 중이다. 아시아·중국의 위상: 2010년 예측대로 아시아, 특히 중국의 글로벌 금융·경제 내 비중이 커졌고, 향후 수십 년간 더 중요해질 것으로 봤다. 중국 증시와 아시아 경제는 글로벌 시장의 점점 더 핵심적인 구성요소가 된다고 했다. 무역 데이터: 중국 공식 수치는 해석이 어렵지만 무역 데이터는 신뢰도가 높다고 설명. 최근 8~10년간 중국 무역 성장률은 연 약 2.5%로, 미국 무역 성장보다 1%p도 안 되게 빠르다. 2010~2011년 이전 대비 확연히 둔화됐다. 경제 구조 변화: 2010년경 중국의 순무역(수출-수입)은 GDP의 약 9%로, 글로벌 시장 의존도가 높았다. 고성장기에는 두 자릿수 성장을 했지만, 중국이 최대 무역국이 되면서 수출 고성장을 유지하기 어려워졌다. 또한 중산층화로 국민 수요가 저축·노동 중심에서 소비 중심으로 바뀌었다. 소비 시장: 지난해(2020년) 중국 소매판매 총액이 처음으로 미국을 넘어 약 6조 달러로 세계 최대 소매시장이 됐다(미국 약 5.5조 달러). 팬데믹 등 특수 요인이 있었지만 중국이 세계에서 가장 역동적이고 빠르게 성장하는 소비시장이 되는 추세는 수십 년간 지속될 것으로 봤다. 이는 중국 소비자에게 상품을 파는 글로벌 기업과 외국인 투자자에게 독특한 기회가 된다. 서비스업 및 리스크: 소매판매는 재화 중심이지만 선진국은 서비스 중심 경제다. 중국 수입 증가도 둔화되어 내수 성장의 성격에 대한 의문이 남는다. 서비스업은 아직 선진국 대비 영향력이 작으며, 이는 1만~1만1천 달러 1인당 GDP 단계의 다른 선진국들도 비슷했다는 점에서 특이하지 않다. 현재 서비스·소매·내수 업종이 가장 빠르게 성장 중이며, 내수 소비의 GDP 비중은 점차 커지고 있다. 출연자 전망: 중국 시장과 아시아는 장기적으로 중요성이 커진다는 장기 견해. 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
well okay so let's talk about the evolution of markets and in particular and a 2010 panel at Columbia business school you mentioned that Asia's role in the Global Financial system was becoming increasingly important looking back how has Asia's role evolved in the last 10 years and what about China's role going forward in both the world's business economy and in the financial exactly as we predicted Nation indeed to become a lot more important particularly China in it become even more important as I look at uh in the next few decades I would say that the Chinese market and Asia in general will become even more important but the set of a dynamics that they're already set in place will continue to play off in the robust way so the Chinese security Market in general and Asia economy that will become increasingly a very very important ever more important component of the global market well all right so let me give you some data that I don't think is widely appreciate it I mean the Chinese numbers are obviously very difficult to interpret at least the official numbers and whenever you see that from a company the data you really want to look at is the data where there's a reliable accountable and the trade data is where there's a reliable County party because every Chinese export has to be an import from another country in every Chinese import has to be an export from another country over the last eight to ten years China trade has grown by only about two and a half percent a year that's less than one percent faster than U.S trade what does that say about Chinese growth I mean that's clearly much slower than the trade growth prior say to 2010 2011.
uh and it's if it's fluctuated obviously but if anything it's been slowing down what does that say about China's future but when it tells you a little bit the characteristic of China's economy has changed fundamentally you know up until 10 years ago that really propels the Chinese growth is has been uh was uh in fashionable traded to a certain extent and I want to say back in 2010 uh the net trade uh a meeting the export import net it out it was roughly about nine percent of GDP and so uh China's economy was heavily dependent in Islamic Global Market now what happened is that and they were growing at really double-digit growth at the time when the rest of the globe global economy was growing at much much less a fraction of that and so at a certain point once you become the largest treating Nation uh you can't really know how the rest of the world wouldn't be able to give up and the other thing that is happening is after the citizens become middle classes their demand changes from basically just work saving uh two and to really work and saving and consume and it's just also Human Nature so roughly around 10 years ago as you'll point out the Chinese economy has slowly evolved into more like a consumer driven economy to the point that interestingly last year was a uh that Watershed near in a sense that the retail cells the total volume retail sells for the first time overtake in the United States China was the largest retail market and the whole world at a Six Trillion also US Dollars the US is probably 5.5 trillion now granted that that was a special year in a sense that a global pandemic ahead and other countries hotter than China there's also said China done a better job you manage the pandemic but basically the trend is there China is emerging to become the most dynamic fastest growing consumer Market in the whole world and that is likely to continue for many many more decades to come and so that really make Chinese even more attractive to the global economy in terms of people who want to sell its back to the consumers for the middle class in China and the characteristic of the economy will change and would also really provides unique and interesting opportunities for Global Investors foreign let me just talk a little bit about that I mean the thing about retail sales is that it's selling Goods the thing about the developed economies is that they're overwhelmingly service economics they're not Goods economics and on that Dimension it doesn't look like China's doing particularly well and as I say the export data you could understand that that would slow down but the fact that the import data has slowed down just as much or more uh tells you something about the nature of domestic growth in China what about the challenges in the service sector in China well you're certainly right that uh at the current stage the surface sector has yet to become as powerful and uh dominant as most of the matured and developed economies in the West and that's really a minus the real set of opportunities right will be decades ahead of them and that's by the way not that much different than all the other developed economy at a comparable stage of the development State at a ten thousand eleven thousand dollars per capita GDP which is where China is today and but even look at the underlying dynamics of various different businesses different performance and lowest consumptions retails and the surface are basically the ones that growing the fastest and overall trade internationally is still going at a robust later but not nearly as much as the domestic side of the economy and so that's why they're a share of the GDP has gradually began to shrink um so domestic consumption becomes a far more important both goods and the services as we point out so it just tells you that a different stage of the economy where it is today
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