저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
Li Lu는 자신의 커리어를 돌아보며 큰 행운과 감사를 느낀다고 말한다. 미국과 중국이 동시에 경제 성장기를 겪은 시기에 투자할 수 있었던 것이 특히 행운이었다고 본다. 중국 투자에서 가장 중요한 교훈은 중국 정부의 역할을 이해하는 것이다. 미국이나 선진국 시장에서 성공한 투자자일수록 정부와 시장 참여자의 역할에 대한 고정된 가정을 갖고 있어 중국 시장에서 잘못된 판단을 하기 쉽다고 한다. 따라서 체계적인 비교를 통해 편견을 걷어내야 하며, 공포나 낙관, 혹은 '중국 붕괴론' 같은 비관적 정서에 휩쓸리지 말아야 한다고 강조한다. 현대 경제의 본질은 지속적인 복리 성장을 만들어내는 능력이라고 설명한다. 과거 대부분의 자연·인간사는 순환적이었지만, 수백 년 전 산업혁명 이후 지속 복리 성장이 나타났고, 이것이 가치투자가 중요해진 배경이라고 본다. 워런 버핏 같은 장기 기록도 이 맥락에서 나왔다고 말한다. 장기 투자수익은 결국 기업의 실제 사업 수익률에 수렴한다는 논리를 제시한다. 복리 성장의 원동력은 자유시장 기업 체제와 현대 과학기술의 결합이며, 중국은 약 40년 전 이 공식을 '중국적 특색이 있는 시장경제'로 받아들여 복리 성장 엔진을 가동했다고 평가한다. 여기에 정치적 안정이 더해지면 중국에서도 지속적인 투자 성과가 가능하다고 본다. 또한 서구에서 흔히 말하는 정치적 민주주의가 경제 성장의 필수 조건은 아니며, 서구에서도 민주주의는 성장 이후에 나타났다고 주장한다. 종목 및 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망이나 목표가는 언급하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
yeah when you look back over your own career yeah are there things that whether at columbia business school or in your career since then you would have done differently that would have helped you get to where you are today sort of more quickly and more easily yeah well i look back i feel i'm extraordinarily lucky and i feel nothing but gratitude i feel lucky to accidentally step the first time he came uh i was very lucky that uh when i got into the business and uh that in a striker relationship um was attracting monger i feel extraordinarily fortunate um to live in a period of time when both united states and china not going through a fundamental economic growth and providing enormous amount of opportunity that i happen to really know post marketing with and so i i looking back my career but not nothing i regret i feel nothing but really gratitude um but in terms of uh uh on the uh on the on the on the transition from the u.s to china so uh i think a lot of people such as myself included went through a period of time to really try to understand um the nature of the chinese economy and the nature of the chinese market the nature of the chinese company investment in chinese companies so one of the key learnings that i have um and it is not that obvious is the role that the chinese government played in that whole question equation if you have been a successful investor in the united states for example or in the development market you tend to come with a set of assumptions about the role of the government and the role of the market participants and when you really look into the chinese market that assumptions you will see a lot of challenges and so you might really from time to time arrive to views that are inconsistent with your own experiences partially because historically the chinese government and the us government the western government perform a very different rules and that's one of the key aspect of really investing in china really requires a much deeper understanding and also a systematic comparison to get rid of those biases and that's why that you can really get rid of this typical global investor into china either involved in fear or enthusiasm or basically pessimistic kind of calming collapse of a china type of a mentality when things are not going too well and so that is the education the most investors particularly when it comes to china would have to really go through and that is important but bear in mind the other aspect to understand to the chinese economy is that the nature of the modern economy is its ability to generate sustained uh compound economic growth something that is only recently emerged as a human phenomena and this is where we talk about the zero-sum versus uh was versus a minion type of mentality now for the longest period of time that almost all natural or human affairs are characterized by cycles in a sense that everything goes up cycles you know we born and then we roll and then we die the trees it goes up and they die it's so intricate it basically always increased energy goes from you know hot to cold things from order to disorder great business has eventually lost his ash so that has been nature of things and economy going through boom and bust but what something unique happened over several hundred years ago was the beginning of the industrial revolution we began to see this phenomenon of continued sustained compounded economic growth and that is really when that value investing become very important and that's why you begin to have a phenomenal record such as the one produced by warren buffett and now by a few other people as well the basic logic behind that as i said over the long term every investment return is likely to approximate the actual business return of the company university and so the fact that you're capable of generating that long-term result is a reflection of a changing nature economy what really drives that phenomenon is something that is utterly fascinating i literally spent 30 40 years thinking about that until i think i come to a certain knowledge i wouldn't say i really don't know at all but i think what really produced that phenomena is is the combination of free market enterprise way of organizing social economic affairs and combine that one with the invention of modern science and technology the combination of those two produced a modern form of economy it is a paradigm shift so what has happened in china is that roughly around 40 years ago china has really stumbled finally into that magic formula of free market economy now with chinese characteristics of course along with modern science and technology and any economy that has really strike a core and strike that magic magic formula began to produce the phenomenon of compound economic reform now that has to combine with the stability of overall political environment to allow the market to enforce that the new economy to really release that power and that is when sustained uh economic i mean sustained investment record can be possible in china it is it's not always there it's not always possible and often it was a zero sum but i think from that part of on that a sustained win-win type of a compounded investment return becomes possible and the notice that i didn't really include the political component of it and most of the western observers believe that political democracy has to be part of the equation except for regatta that's political democracy wasn't there when that phenomenon began to take place in the west in fact the political democracy happened later almost as a result not because of it anyway so that is another layer of understanding the phenomena of the investment opportunities in china it could be interesting you
Comments 0