저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
2025년 예산 발표를 앞두고 시장이 약세라 기대는 낮추는 게 낫다는 입장. 장기자본이득세·STT 인상 우려가 있으나 큰 변화는 기대 어렵다고 봄. 개별 종목은 고점 대비 30~40% 하락한 우량주가 많아 가치 매력이 있지만 약세장이 아직 끝나지 않았을 수 있다고 봄. 고용 창출 정책과 정부 중점 분야(EV, 전력, 데이터센터 관련) 주목을 권고. 공포 속 기회를 강조하나 현 시점 대형 매수 확신은 없음.
다듬은 글
Joining us on the program is renowned investor Vijay Kedia. Kedia holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Kolkata University. At the young age of 19, he started his brokerage business. He developed an interest in the stock market. Kedia has over 20 years of deep experience, I think it must be more than 20 years, in the equity and commodity markets.
You all know him well by name, by work, and by his songs. I think we can say that Kedia is like Kishore Kumar when it comes to stock market songs. So versatile and has such good songs. Kedia, welcome. First of all, hello sir, thank you for giving me your time. Hello to Zee Business. We called you for only one purpose: please tell us what we expect from the budget.
So, we thought that since we already know the expectations, why not let you know and let our viewers hear it too. So, the latest song by Kedia is on the expectations of the budget. Please enjoy your voice and your song once. Sir FMG FMG how do I pay so many taxes STT STG LTC etc have increased what should I say on top of that I have to pay two taxes on dividends madam ji madam ji how do I survive now this business is difficult how much risk I take diabetes and BP in return I get it is not easy how do I bear so much anxiety madam ji madam ji how do I survive now you smiling sir expressed the entire pain sir I enjoyed it and in fact these words and feelings of yours are not yours but of crores of investors of the stock market who want relief tell me sir what should be expected from this budget sir see the calculation of the budget is like what happens in Ramayana the same thing that Sitaram has created no one knows what is going to come in the budget and generally the process of the budget is such that to fill one pit you dig another pit and you fill the first pit generally the budget is like this so I do not have any special expectations from me If we talk from the market point of view, sir, then I feel that there is nothing going to come for the stock market in the budget and I should prepare myself mentally for it, whatever we may take from them and something like this was in my mind that these people will definitely touch the long term capital gains, they did it by 10 or they can do it by 15 because they gave indications that they will increase it soon, but right now there is a little panic in the market, the atmosphere in the market has changed a little, so maybe they may not do it, so if they do not touch anything else, if they remove all the STT (Substantial Tax) imposed forcibly, then it will be a big thing, so in my opinion, the budget should be seen from the economic point of view, I do not expect anything very good for the stock market, if it is good then nothing good will come out, bad, we have to see how much we earn, so what I mean is that many times it happens that you keep your expectations low or go with the fear that long term is going to increase, if short term also increases then nothing will happen, that will be good, that will be good, that is all, that is good, that is all, that is good.
It will happen, it means it is very good if it does not go bad, right sir, so the only way here is that it should not go bad, which I do not have any possibility of because the market has already fallen, if the market had not fallen then it would have been a different matter, now since the market has fallen then perhaps these people will also understand that brother, it is okay, forget about the child's life, at least we have taken everything, what will we do, it is absolutely right, let's not do anything bad, the market will be happy with that too, but the way the market is weak before the budget, what should be understood KD sir, if the budget comes out even a little good then can the market move from here, should we have hope or will the budget make any difference, no sir, this is my personal opinion and I can be wrong and my opinion is a little contrarian, it can be in the opposite direction, even if I am wrong, I am not going to suffer any loss, don't say dhu hand modak, it does not make any difference to me because the investment in the market is mine, I feel that sir, if you look at this budget personally, you also know that it is okay, I do not have much knowledge No, I cannot review it further.
I form my opinion after listening to people like you and the experts who come. I feel that I will be most happy with this budget in India when some people are going to do this for job creation. If I feel that there is going to be huge job creation in India, if such a policy is brought now or later, there is a year or two for this, then I will be happy, otherwise this is a huge time bomb which is planted in India, sir, that we have to create 1 crore new jobs every year, so more than the tax, my focus is on what policy the government brings for this, whether it brings it now or later, how jobs can be created, this is a very sensitive issue, my focus will be on this and the rest, if they reduce the tax, sir, if I earn ₹1 and have to pay 0 tax, then it is good for me from that perspective, it is better than me earning ₹10 and paying zero tax.
I may earn 100 and pay 0 tax at least but there will be no employment and if there is no earning then everything will be ruined sir yes that is right you have said this point very well that it is very important to create jobs if people earn then they will spend and will also pay tax obviously is it the right time to invest in the market today or Kedia sir there is still some fear the way FIs are being sold what is the view being formed what should be done look sir so whatever question of the market keeps coming sir we are always afraid it is like driving a car you are driving you are a very good driver you are sitting in a very good car but you should not hit your car someone else can come and hit your car sir right so you have to be careful about that too when you are driving no matter how good a driver I am my car should not be hit by someone else so by saying this the same thing happens in the market sir internal factors external factors many factors work in the market so we have to be careful from them I feel that the bearish environment that has been prevailing in the market for the last two-four months, my personal opinion is that I could be wrong, I feel that it is not over yet, I feel that a little bit of it is still left and perhaps it will take some more time, and as far as you ask whether you should buy shares or not, if we talk about these individual shares, sir, then as we say bottoms of approach, we will have to look at individual shares to see how much fall has happened in them, even good shares have fallen from their peak of 30, 30, 40, 40, but there are still many such shares, I would say, no, there will be many such shares in the entire market, which may fall to 30, there may be scope in them, but these are individual shares, so one should not look at the entire market from this perspective, I feel that what is the general meaning of bull market, sir, or the bull market.
I think the hot bull markets that are already running, they decrease from the peak to 15. So right now it might have fallen to 10, maybe 2, 3, 4, 5. Seeing this, any time it can be moved back and forth due to Trump, due to some budget, it might get adjusted a little, then it will give you a full highway run in the future, so I will be happy for that, there is no happiness in the heart, but I will be mentally happy that the market has fallen, it has become clean, you will face fewer hurdles in the future, that is right and Keya sir, when I talked to you many times in the interview, you also said that I have faced many setbacks in the market and after incurring losses many times, I have come out stronger.
Now for the first time it is seen that the investors who came in the market in the last three-four years, the new investors who came after Covid, have seen a proper correction, recession, whatever you may call it, in the stocks, there is a recession and correction in the market, both in terms of time and price, time wise correction, price wise correction.
Both of them, after a long time, what advice should I show them? Confidence is shaken now, it has started to shake. Till now, I had kept it safe, now it has started to shake. What advice would you give them Sir, you say this, the caravans of hearts get looted near the destination, so that is a good thing, I do not consider it bad, see Sir, this journey is a marathon, it is okay, you are not running a 100 meter race, it is going to build a future for them, whether you believe it or not, anyone may say anything, but this recession that has come in the market or the correction that is coming, it may come more, it may come time wise, it may come price wise, it will build a future for them for the future for 20 years, 30 years, 40 years, this investment market, Sir, my quote to you is mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity, this game is all of the mind, Sir, here it is a game of mind, you lose with an empty mind, you win with an empty mind, no matter how good the report is, the opposite has started happening, if a good report comes, the shares fall, first a bad report comes, the shares rise, then this whole Sir, the game is about sentiments, it is about the mind.
Whatever comes, it will create such a strong mentality for these people. This market will give them the strength to see, withstand and endure that brother, it is not like Diwali always, it is not like that here, brother, what rises also falls, it is like the sun and the moon, day and night, sunshine and shadow, so if you face them, you will emerge as a strong investor.
Sir, it is absolutely right if they say that the best investments are made in your worst times, right, only then do you make big money. You have made many such investments and you must still be seeing bad times, but where do you see opportunities, sir, where do you want to invest your money? Look at this time, what about investing money?
So far, no such idea has come to my mind that I feel like selling here and there and buying these shares because you have many types of shares. The problem is that when there is a recession, you do not even have money to invest, by then you become a fool because The invested money remains but you have opportunities, brother, you can exchange an elephant for a leopard, you get this opportunity, if they fall then all the others rise and even then all rise in a big way, so right now all my senses are engaged in this that a golden opportunity is about to come in India, which was not available in the last three years, it will come again when this market falls or corrects or even remains stagnant, but as on date I am talking to you, no such thing is coming to my mind that I like this idea and I should take it because even now valuation wise, to be honest, I am not very comfortable, it is okay, I will understand after a few days, rest more less whatever the government's focus is on, sir, whatever infrastructure the government is focused on, then that should be done well, and wherever the government is focused, understand that there are talks about IVI all the time, like we talk about power, there is going to be shortage due to data centers, because of E Whatever the reason is, people, I feel there is a big boom in EV because of EV.
All the shares and companies related to EV should do well. So, wherever the government is focused, sir, the same Dulan which Piya Man Bhai, I always say, the focus is on the one where the government is interested. So, in the budget, it should be seen which sector the government is focusing on. Sir, the film names that you are referring to must be from your college days, Dulan which is the pun, sir.
No, sir, all this, yes, our times are just beginning, I remember the old history. By the way, even though you are not talking about age, but in terms of fitness, Gadiya sahab, if you ever look at his photos, the way he does yoga and the way he stays fit is amazing. Sir, we played your budget song in the beginning for our viewers, what are your expectations, but you come and let you go and sing, etc., that cannot happen, so you can sing any song of your choice, whatever you want.
Hummed a couple of lines Sir, so sir my song is that invest after thinking carefully and don't settle for rumours, this is a business of knowledge and patience, this is Zee Business, this is a business of knowledge and patience, thank you, learn from experience and do your best, what a great thing, and sir since you came today, we also want to launch a promo in front of you, today since morning we had asked a promo to our viewers, to know, see and identify who is who, who are these people, where do these people come from, so I want to present a promo in front of you, we have talked about Zee Business, so today we are revealing a promo of Zee Business, the answer to this question which you were looking for, who are these people, see, think and tell, the answer is in front of you, this relationship of Zee Business and you is getting stronger like a rock every year, do you know why, because we do not hurry, we understand the responsibility, we do not trap people in the web of words, we explain in simple language, whatever we say, we write, we examine every news thoroughly, you meet me every day on Zee Business, but behind the scenes is my strong team.
Anil Singhvi is a member in itself, we are ready, you too come for the special coverage of Budget 2025 only on Zee Business. So, of course, wherever I go, KD sir, people give me credit for doing this and that, but I want to tell our viewers that there are not just one Anil Singh in my team, and all of them work hard, and that is why we are able to become number one like this.
So, we thought that since you came today, we should do this promo lunch in front of you. Thank you, sir, thank you very much, good wishes to you, you are doing a great job, and of course, you keep doing it like this, keep educating people, it will be beneficial, the quiz that you have started should last for centuries.
It is a good thing that whenever there is a difficult time, we always get your guidance. And the biggest thing is that there is a huge similarity between you and our channel, sir. One, we always have a smile, no matter how the market is, and second, no one can be sad after meeting us. Yes, the money will come when it comes, it will come back, the values will come when they come, but at least we definitely bring that feel-good factor, so definitely.
You too keep spreading smiles like this and keep guiding us from time to time. Thank you very much. Thank you so much. Namaste sir. Thank you very much.
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