저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 컨센서스 2018 이후에도 Tom Lee는 비트코인 장기 상승 견해를 유지하며 2만 5천달러 목표를 고수했지만, 단기적으로는 규제 불확실성 때문에 실망스러웠다고 평가했다. 컨퍼런스 평가: 행사 자체는 참가자 규모가 전년 대비 약 3배로 커지고 글로벌 의사결정자가 모여 성공적이었으나, 시장 기대가 과도했다고 인정했다. 암호화폐 가격은 행사 주간 하락했다(비트코인캐시 -18%, 리플 -8%, 이더리움 -6%, 라이트코인·비트코인 -5%). 규제: 규제 명확성이 나오지 않아 전반적으로 약간 부정적 기울기였다고 봤다. 이더리움 기반 CME 선물 상장은 이더리움이 유틸리티 토큰으로 간주될 신호로 해석했다. 기관 채택: 노무라 등 커스터디 발표는 긍정적이나, 기관 내부에서 실제 매수로 이어지려면 시간이 걸린다고 봤다. 비트코인 전망: 비트코인 misery index는 18에서 30으로 회복됐다. 상승은 소수의 최고 수익일에 집중되므로 변동성 속에서 보유가 중요하다는 취지. 2만 5천달러 목표는 유지(장기 견해, 기간 명시 없음). 현재 약 8,000달러대로 제시. 출연자 의견: 아시아(특히 중국·한국·일본·필리핀·동남아) 채택이 활발하다는 점을 주목했다.
다듬은 글
Consensus 2018 the world's largest Bitcoin and blockchain conference came right here to New York City this week and was supposed to send cryptocurrencies to the moon but instead they got rekt so what was it about consensus what why did everybody get that call wrong check out the performance of cryptocurrencies this week Bitcoin cash down 18% ripple down 8% aetherium down 6 while litecoin and Bitcoin both fell 5% we're joined now by fun strats Tom Lee who was the first strategist to put out the call that consensus would lift Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies because there was a huge increase in size of the audience that given the uncertainty around Bitcoin for most of this year you know with the wallet and regulatory overhang that gathering a group of experts was going to reinvigorate confidence but instead I think we saw that it was a large audience it was PI a little tougher for folks to sort of you know discern the underlying message and because we didn't get regulatory clarity I think there was I saw in Twitter you're responding to somebody who was asking you about your call on consensus and basically you mentioned the right did you think that we were going to get regulatory clarity because you said that was one area that fell short also the number of custodial announcements fell short there's some other things I mean did you think that the consensus would be that much of a breakthrough event for this industry well to be clear what we thought would be a risk was if there was something that could push the regulatory picture incrementally negative and you know the absence of that would have been positive and I think in general I kind of would say unbalanced I think there was a slight negative tilt to the regulatory about look that because it was going to take longer than most expected to really get some certainty so Tom you wrote in a note this morning about the institutional uptake so the big thing that we've been talking about is when's custody going to be coming we got a couple of those announcements today now that now the task is getting the people at the institutions to buy in there's usually my experience one little group when do you think that happens it's gonna take time there was some really good news on the custodial progress I mean Nomura as a bank actually becoming a custodian but on the flip side of that is the institution's not only have to have a team that's enthusiastic about adopting cryptocurrencies they have to essentially evangelize internally and I think that we've got sort of that first step I think there are more institutions interested but again it's gonna take some time to sort of get the whole firm to value what on the regulatory front disappointed you again I why was it more negative I think we need to be nuanced here I it's if we look at regulatory we don't want to simply look at what we expect them to announce I don't think that's was going to be expected but it was really understanding how people were shaping their views around regulatory or how they would interpret incremental data or the lack of incremental data and you know an example that you can give us I mean it sounds a little squishy I mean are you talking about things like whether or not etherium is a security or well I'll give you some exotic or the sidebar conversations that we're taking place one is that you know see me it's great that they're going to have another contract for another cryptocurrency for aetherium and the fact that when they finally turn on live is clearly in some ways a signal that aetherium is likely to be viewed as a utility token so in other words there's gonna be signal in the sense that if CME's actually when they when they go live with this contract it's actually something else but on the flip side I think there's a lot of side conversations about how people feel about their last conversation with regulators and I think on balance it just didn't feel like things were moving forward sound of course just I mean from the standpoint of the amount of money that's coming over the past year versus last year's conference or since last year's conference is the barge is that much higher now I mean a theory was trading around one hundred hundred and twenty bucks last year the expectations for what was going to come out I mean has the bar just been set higher and higher and higher where we really needed something earth-shaking to really move the market to move these well I mean first I want to come on I think consensus was a huge success I mean I think it's it's a great conference to bring a lot of people together from around the world and I think the quality of the people that were there I mean Brian you were there it's amazing it's like it's the people you that you know are important to this industry coming together but also a lot of decision makers incrementals so I think it was a great success that way but to get the right synergy and for this group to kind of gel and make deals it you know it it's growing pains this this comments tripled in size compared to a year ago so I think it's unfair to kind of blame consensus for what's happened I think maybe everyone including myself was a little optimistic you sound a little bit more cautious when I want to take a look at the Bitcoin misery index because this is one of your proprietary thing it's it's now what at 30 versus yes so people are less miserable but people have to be happy or the opposite of miserable in order to get to your forecast the 25,000 for Bitcoin what's what are you sticking by that forecast yes yeah absolutely so I still think that we have to keep in mind is that Bitcoin at 8,000 and Bitcoin let's say we think and it can reach 25,000 it doesn't require Bitcoin to go up every day till the end of the year sure whenever the 10 best days account for all they return a Bitcoin if you did know in Bitcoin for 10 days each year you lost 25% a year for the last since 2010 so clearly Bitcoin is something where only a handful of days account for the games so I think it's really good news that the Bitcoin misery index which dropped to 18 which is awful a month ago is now back to 30 it's acting more consistently but it is among the 16 currencies we watched the worst cryptocurrency on the misery index level so Dios is the highest that Bitcoin is the lowest all right Tom thank you yeah thank you calmly a fun strat you gotta give him props for coming by and in terms of what you thought of the conference did we did you come away with the same sort of impressions yeah yeah I had three takeaways from it for me the number one takeaway which I think will probably surprise everybody kryptos thriving in China even though it's a cub and there is a lot of development going on there you know number two the custody solution we have plenty of those right now and then number three coming out of it the last one oh so the adoption right it was this big divide adoptions happening in Asia where developments happening here in the u.s.
so we in the US might try to figure out how we're using this in Asia in Korea in Japan in the Philippines Southeast Asia it is booming so those were the three takeaways from me I actually came out incrementally more positive and going into it I was the most excited I've been in a long time about this big
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