저자: 제임스블라드 · 외국인
요약 보기
블라드 총재는 블록체인과 암호화폐를 주목할 만한 기술로 보며, 비트코인이 국제무역 비용을 줄이는 효과가 있을 수 있다고 평가했다. 암호화폐가 달러를 위협하는지에 대해서는 현재로선 그렇게 보지 않으며, 달러는 큰 경제규모와 낮은 인플레이션 덕분에 역사적으로 승자였다고 설명했다. 연준이 디지털화폐를 발행할 가능성에 대해서는 연준 내 여러 부서가 블록체인을 검토하고 있지만 현재 계획이나 임박한 움직임은 없으며, 개인적으로는 그 이점을 잘 모르겠다고 말했다. 신흥국 자본유출 문제에 대해서는 연준은 미국 경제를 우선 관리하며 다른 나라는 자국 통화정책과 환율을 스스로 관리해야 한다는 입장을 밝혔다. 다만 자본흐름이 미국 경제에 되돌아온다는 점은 정책 결정 시 고려한다고 했다. 유가 상승에 대해서는 과거처럼 미국 경제에 큰 악재는 아니고, 소비자에게는 부담이지만 생산자에게는 도움이 되어 대체로 상쇄된다고 평가했다. 인플레이션은 달러 트림 평균 기준 전년 대비 1.8%로 높지 않으며, 목표치에 조금 가까워질 수는 있으나 큰 상승은 보지 않는다고 했다. 6월 금리 인상 여부에 대해서는 회의 결과를 기다려봐야 한다고 답했다.
다듬은 글
we're joined now by st. Louis Fed President James Miller here at consensus great to have you on friends great to be here thanks for having me not the type of typically see you out so help us understand why they talking you guys policymaker like yourself here talking about this before well we think blockchain technology is very interesting and of course there's been a lot of new issuance of crypto currencies so he and I on that so we want to be very engaged and thoughtful about ss proceeds I just watched a presentation very in-depth analysis you mentioned the Venezuelan Bulevar inflation in US Austria when looking at digital currencies but break it down for us Bitcoin and crypto is it good or bad for the US economy I'm sorry what does it mean for the US for the US economy what is the potential economic and well some of my points worth at cryptocurrency is facilitating trade that would not otherwise occur some of that's illegal but some of that is just avoiding cost that would otherwise be there so to the extent you get the latter part that would be a strength of the crypto currency another part of my talk was talking about how when you have a lot of currency different currencies trading around the exchange rate problem is a big deal because you don't know how they're going to trade against each other and that happens even with big time currencies like the end and the dollar its Bitcoin a threat to the US dollar I don't think so at this point I think that well we don't know how the future is going to unfold but my idea is that there's a lot of currency competition going on right now the dollar has been the winner historically because it's backed by the largest economy and a relatively stable policy in terms of low inflation and that's going to be tough to beat but a lot of people here want to beat it some are speculating that with your presence here president Bullard it's a sign that the Fed may be trying to one day embrace their own digital currency a Fed coin if you will true Wow well we can certainly look at that as a possibility and there are different parts of the Fed that look at all kinds of applications of blockchain technology but I wouldn't say there's any plan at this point or anything imminent my own personal opinion is I don't at this point I don't see what the games would be to the Fed from that but I'd certainly keep an open mind when we look at the global landscape there's been a lot of talk about rising US dollar rising rates and the impact it could have on emerging market nations recently we've seen a lot of outflows out of emerging market debt how does the Fed continue to raise rates without inflicting pain on some of these vulnerable emerging economies like Argentina well the idea has been that the u.s.
runs a monetary policy for the US and the other countries have to run their own monetary policies and manage their exchange rates to the extent they can and to the extent they want to so you know this has been an issue over the last five years I know but our policy is really to take care of the US economy as best we can we understand that capital flows come in and out and that this does feed back to the US economy we take that into a when we're making the u.s.
monetary policy let's talk about oil prices which have been on the rise ever since President Trump announced that the United States will be pulling out of the Iranian nuclear a fourth higher oil prices tends to lead to higher inflation are you concerned I would say the biggest issue with oil prices is that they have moved up and it does look fairly sticky but this will also encourage US production and compared to years past oil prices have a more neutral effect on the US economy it used to be a big oil Shack was probably bad news for the US economy but now I think it's neutral it hurts our consumer side but it helps us on the production side and more or less washes out at this point so I think it's not what it used to be to track oil prices for the US economy you tend to be a bit more dovish but we do see a significant rise in inflation will that force the Fed to raise rates maybe two or even three times if the key issue there is the word significant are we going to see inflation that's more or less where it is today the Dallas Fed trimming year-over-year inflation rate is 1.8 percent that doesn't sound very high to me it hasn't change motion last year it's possible that we'll pick up a little bit but that would just get it closer to our target all right so we can we see it right now I can do sorry will we see a rate hike in June well we'll have to wait for the meeting and see what happens president bowler thank you for your time great together gravity I really appreciate it and the US economy guys sending it back to
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