저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 정보 과잉 속에서 '알 수 있고 중요한 것'(지역 주택 데이터: 중간가격·거래량·체류일수의 전월/전년 대비 변화)에 집중하라는 프레임. 변곡점 추적을 위해 매월 데이터를 스프레드시트로 기록할 것을 권함. 금·환율 등 무관한 지표는 무시하고, 장기 보유와 현금흐름(월세 수익)으로 하락기를 버티라고 조언. 달러 가치 우려는 부동산이 실물 자산이라 무의미하다는 주장.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody needs heaven here today we're coming to you with a note about the market who puts notes like this on a car this is like a prank gone wrong I wouldn't know anything about pranks gone wrong but anyway I'm coming to you with eight things that you need to know when it comes to understanding what's going on in the marketplace now I'm gonna be directing this out at the real estate market but really this kind of knowledge is something that you should internalize no matter really whatever it is you're investing in so let's get to the points post-it note this is why if you're gonna prank somebody you use pretty flowers not post-it notes that fly around everywhere I mean this is this is trash flowers are nice the very first thing you need to know when it comes to analyzing whether or not the market is working is well you gotta know the knowledge quadrant and here's how the knowledge quadrant works I gotta here at first I thought these look good but now that look really fake in like Photoshop look so many of us want to know what's happening in the marketplace and how we can base our financial and investing decisions based on what's happening in the marketplace the problem is we get such a flood of information that we end up doing nothing we just get overwhelmed and we shut down and that's bad so hopefully these four quadrants here can help you categorize what actually matters so the first quadrant is that you should really only care about things that are knowable and important such as local real estate data if you're investing in real estate then you want what's actually happening in the marketplace so that way you can track the different inflection points and see how things are changing and evolving in your marketplace that brings up the next quadrant which is not important but knowable like the price of gas or knowing why there's a massive fire truck with a huge ladder just cruising around a very small community center these are things that may be knowable like I could go ask them or I can find out what the price of gold is but they're not important to investing in real estate some people in the comments are gonna go you anti shift for you you just don't like him next video peter schiff is suing me because oh my gosh you're just slamming on him because he sells gold and you're a real estate agent you sell real estate so of course you're jaded is your trend it's over you to say get all that kennesaw but the bottom line is real estate and gold aren't correlated with their prices and stand and gold is something where people throw their money into to sort of hedge when they're trying to be protectionist and and they don't believe in the direction of the overall economy and if that's you that's fine I'm not saying don't buy gold that's totally fine but the bottom line is it's not knowable and important and when something is knowable and not important you should forget about it so forget about the firetruck forget about the price of gold if you're trying to figure out what the real estate market is doing the next quadrant would be not knowable but important this would be like the Fed secretly whispering to each other we're gonna raise rates that's gonna make mortgage rates go up and you're all gonna get screwed again just like you did in the summer of 2018 well guess what I don't know that the market doesn't know that it's not knowable is it important yes but I'm not gonna waste my time worrying about what they're going to do it is what it is we'll find out when we find out and then it'll move into the knowable and important category the last one is not knowable and not important for example Greg's it yeah maybe it's important for people in the UK but the bottom line is for folks in the United States it's not knowable as to whether or not breaks it is actually going to happen or what the impact would even be if it happened as a result we kind of have to cast something that is not knowable and not important into a category that's really just meant to distract us so let's focus on things that are knowable and important that's point what folks let's get to point to number two folks this is super important night loot it to it in the hole in Quadrant section is always get a gift for your girlfriend or wife it's it's a good idea this happens to be a good place to get that really number two is housing data like local housing data you actually have to care about that so the main things you want to look for in a market place or going to be things like median housing prices and their change month-to-month and year-over-year very very important statistic days on the market and the change month to month and year-over-year this is going to help you eliminate seasonality and the last thing that you really want to focus on and then that's it volume how many houses are selling how many houses sold last year at that same month and how many houses sold last month in that comparison when you take these three metrics and you compare them month to month and year over year you get your inflection points supernaturally okay let's see what we can buy here how is a guy ever supposed to get a gift for a girl okay this is ridiculous never mind okay number three this might sound similar to number two but like nobody does this and if you want to be a successful investor you'll start doing this because I do it and it really works you literally track these changes and you might be thinking yourself we'll wait a minute if I could just look up the data why would I track it no no no no because you'll never look up the data again literally look at the data in the county that you live in that I talked about it number two and track the changes month by month if you just do it once a month you'll end up getting a spreadsheet of all the years of data that you've tracked and then guess what happens well then it becomes really oh there's a guy up there hi how's it going and he might be a lender dignified home loans maybe he can tell us about the market now you have a spreadsheet and you can actually see your countywide data transform every single month you'll see like oh wow in August the sales volume was this and median home prices were this and oh my gosh in November they were higher this is good and now you can actually track changes and then you look at okay so August 2018 was worse than August 2017 but November 2018 is better than November 2017 and so what do you gather from this changes I think we like to think this is kind of like the classic comedy that where somebody's like wait a minute Kevin what's up man wait a minute Kevin in the summer you're like what's up yeah well what do you think do you think the markets gonna crash well just wanna make sure that you guys have you guys then which you're supposed to say we can yeah okay I'll get out of here I'm gonna go get my Starbucks and we'll get out of here and then do you think the markets gonna crash like the real estate market because I'm trying to get you know well I'm gonna agent I'm trying to get people to buy you know that's what I'm saying that's what that's thank you all right hey I have a good one guys look you heard the guy things are on the up-and-up all right it's time to buy okay I told you I told you just call me let me let me tell you some real estate you know what call me even even if you're a Nebraska okay I need another Commission come on I'm gonna go bankrupt here I think people really think that I'm a real estate agent like somebody's need to call me from the UK is gonna be like oh yeah come sell my house and somehow I'm gonna make money off after that's some nuts anyway I think we're properly conveying here the idea of inflection points which is the whole idea is if when you see these changes and you track them and you actually go through the effort of updating it every single month guess what happens you start feeling the data rather than like oh my gosh wouldn't Kevin gonna make another video when you just do it yourself and then do it in your own area it's not that hard to do all right let's get to point number four so number four is it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on the things that are knowable but not so important but this is really like extra credit because really if you're just a part-time investor which you really should be it's your side hustle you really just focus on the stuff that's knowable and important but me for example I also like to know what's knowable but not necessarily super important because it helps me understand trends when I look around and I see people buying certain things or acting in a certain way I see new construction going into a certain area I see a new construction not going into an area all of these things can be little clues that okay well you know some stuff is selling and some stuff is not selling those are hints to me in the real estate market that help guide me as a professional but as a consumer you shouldn't really try to distract yourself with all these other little guidance things let the pros stock whole foods the way they stock it and then you can consult with the pros for free like somebody called me up right now like kind of I want to buy in Ventura and I want to buy in this area what do you think and much like Whole Foods I'm like okay alright in that area we stock the cheap stuff it's the stuff that doesn't sell really well takes a little longer to sell is what it is now over here we got the premium wines or premium cereal whatever it is you're looking for the pro can tell you that it's super simple you should take advantage of that because guess what it's free it doesn't cost you anything hey I'm clueless about fish but I really want like like a healthy kind of fish that I could cook without screwing it up like real easily something easy man salmon I'll take it is this what most people buy or what do most people buy that's the most popular one so it's a good thing to invest in because other people are doing it okay now we gotta carry around cold fish at least it's kind of cold outside I mean 60 degrees that's that's the safe zone right I think they call it the safe zone the fda safe zone they'll be fine you know what I'll just put it like my jacket or something like that all right let's get to point number five because guess what after we have number five we have number six and why is six Afraid of seven cuz 79 come on hey nice to meet you Chris okay have a good one yeah thanks it just looks delicious how's it going hey guys okay so number five you want to know about market timing and buying real estate don't buy the real estate investing course no seriously why do you want to be in it because people pitch deals all the time in a real estate investment group newer investors I'm like dude why are you buying this don't buy this and I'm trying literally myself answering folks questions about hey why are you having trouble getting a home equity line of credit this is why this is how you structure it hey why are you having trouble with that contractor or that negotiation this I'm answering it people are like wait is it serious a fire truck losing my voice like wait seriously like Kevin's gonna yes this is why you need to be part of this this is why it this is actually has a real step this time number six stop thinking of real estate as your get-rich-quick scheme look if you want to be a wholesaler and you want to make real estate you're job hunting for deals all the time fine then do that but look if you want to get into real estate pull long-run wealth then you need to think of real estate but as a long-term play depending on you know what country you're in look if you're in a country that is politically tumultuous and you know you're like at risk of getting killed then maybe you don't be investing in that country or like the country is gonna seize your assets or something like that but if you believe in the direction of the long-term growth of America if you think over the next 100 years prices in America will be larger and investments will generally grow in that direction it's not worrying about this think about that and being on that ride look I bought Tesla and what else did I have hot Tesla and Apple stock on January 28th on my birthday since then they're each up like 15 percent I'm not some crazy like expert that knew it was gonna go up fifteen percent over the next like four days it just happened because I got on the ride look he'll go go down 20 percent tomorrow I don't care I'm in my IRA and I don't care they're gonna sit there for 30 years because I believe in them long-term I hate sitting down look here's the other thing if you're going to get into real estate insulate yourself with cash flow if you're worried about prices going down then cash flow is going to be what protects you and pays your Timur D write taxes insurance maintenance management utilities reserves when you have a tenant paying this and you're insulated because you're positive even if it's 100 bucks a month even if it's $500 month $1,000 a month per property whatever who cares whatever your insulation is your blanket that is going to be what helps you get through the down time prices fall who cares you can still have a warmed up a shot on a cold day not lose sleep at night it's not that big of a deal may as well get that free juice while I'm here fill up this asset with some charge okay so here's point number eight point number eight look you're gonna hear a lot of people talking about the potential of like it's $1.00 going to crap and oh my gosh the global economy's gonna crash and get destroyed because if the dollar goes to crap then that would be bad because oil sales are denominated in dollar and then this is gonna happen and this is gonna happen this is gonna happen you know what that stuff is not knowable not important keep in mind the quadrants from point number one right but remember this real estate is a fixed asset so who cares if we're using dollars or bitcoins or whatever the bottom line is people need a roof over their heads people need office spaces to work out of and what does real estate offer you those things it solves that problem and when you solve people's problems you get paid so if you think the markets in the dumps what do you got to do you're gonna remember these very important eight things one the quadrant two local data that we talked about you're actually going to look at that local data and you're gonna track it because that's number three is you're actually going to track it and look for the inflection points how many videos do I have to make explaining inflection points yet I still get comments and people going we need to make Kevin in the summer you said this now you're saying this well done that was seven months ago number four if you want to focus on macro that's fine you can but you don't need to you just want to defer to the professional number five get out of the dumps and by the real-estate investing course okay number six when you come out for fresh air make sure you focus on long term seven insulate yourself with cash flow and number eight if you're worried about the dollar or a fiat currency disappearing because the dollars not backed by anything then buy real estate
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