저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Ackman는 자신의 리서치 과정을 설명합니다. 여기에는 10-K와 10-Q(연차·분기 보고서), 위임장 설명서(proxy), 실적 발표 녹취록(earnings transcripts), 전문가 네트워크(expert networks), 산업 자료 읽기가 포함됩니다. 또한 그의 가치투자 접근법도 소개합니다. 핵심은 일시적으로 문제를 겪어 낮은 가격에 거래되는 훌륭한 기업을 매수하는 것입니다. 예를 들어 식품 안전 사고 이후의 Chipotle이 그런 사례입니다. 그는 경제적 해자(moat)와 확장성의 중요성을 강조하며, 주가가 너무 높으면 수익률이 제한된다고 말합니다. 레스토랑 투자는 그의 가장 좋은 투자 실적이며, 이 업종에서 돈을 잃은 적이 없다고 언급합니다. 기술 시대의 파괴적 혁신 위험도 다룹니다. Burger King과 McDonald's에 관한 개인적인 일화는 투자 추천이 아니라고 덧붙입니다.
다듬은 글
uh what's the actual process you go through like literally like the process of figuring out what the value of a company is like how do you do the research is it reading documents is it talking to people is it how do you do it it's all the about so Chipotle What attracted us initially is a stock price dropped by about 50% uh great company great concept um cons you know athletes love it consumers love it healthy sustain able uh fresh food made in front of your eyes and uh you know great Steve 's the founder did an amazing job but ultimately the company's lacking some of the systems and had a food safety issue consumers got sick almost killed the rent uh but the reality of the fast food quick service industry is almost every fast food company has had a food safety issue over time and the vast majority have survived uh and we said look such a great concept but they you know their approach was not was far from ideal but we start with usually reading the SEC violing so companies file a 10K or an annual report they file these quarterly reports called 10 Q's they have a proxy statement which describes kind of the governance the board structure um conference call transcripts are publicly available it's kind of very helpful to go back five years and kind of learn the story you know here's how management describes their business here's what they say they're going to do then you can follow along to see what they do uh it's like a historical record of you you know of how competent and uh truthful they are you it's a very useful device and then of course looking at competitors uh and thinking about you know who could what could dislodge this company um uh you know and then we'll talk to if it's an industry we don't know well we know the restaurant industry really well music industry you know we'll talk to people in the industry we'll try to understand you know the difference between publishing and recorded music we'll look at the competitors um we'll talk to we'll read books you I read a book about the music industry or a couple books about the industry um so it's it's a bit like a big research project uh and you there these so-called expert networks now and you can get pretty much anyone on the phone uh and they'll talk to you about an aspect of the industry that you don't understand want to learn more about uh try to get a sense you know public filings of companies generally give you a lot of information but not everything you want to know and you can learn more by talking to experts about some of the industry Dynam Dynamics the personalities you want to get a sense of management uh I like watching you know podcasts if a CEO were to do a podcast or a YouTube interview you get a sense of the people so in the case of Chipotle for example by the way I could talk about Chipotle all day I just love it I love it I wish there was a sponsor uh I'll mention it to the CEO don't make promises you can't keep Bill I'm not making can't Brian Nichols a fantastic CEO he's not going to spend $1 that he doesn't think is the company's best interest all right all I want is free Chipotle come on now uh what was I saying oh and so you look at a company like Chipotle and then you see there's a difficult moment in its history like you said that uh there was a food safety issue and then you say okay well I see a path where we can fix this and therefore even though the price is low we can get it to where the price goes up to its value so the kind of business we're looking for is sort of the kind of business everyone should be looking for right a great business it's got a long-term trajectory of growth out into the for you know even beyond the foreseeable distance right those are the kind of businesses you want to own you want businesses that generate a lot of cash you want businesses you can easily understand you want businesses with these sort of huge barriers to entry where it's difficult for others to compete you want companies that don't have to constantly raise Capital um and these are some of the great businesses of the world but people have figured out that those are the great businesses so the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business so we we can't earn the kind of returns we want to earn for investors by paying a really high price price matters a lot you can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns so we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or they or you've a company that's kind of lost its way but it's recoverable and that's we buy from shareholders who are disappointed who've lost confidence selling at a low price relative to what it's worth if fixed and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company you said that uh barriers to entry you said a lot of really interesting qualities of companies very quickly in a sequence of statements that took like less than 10 seconds to say but some of them were fascina all of them were fascinating so you said barriers to entry how do you know if there's a type of Mo protecting the the competitors from stepping up to the plate I mean the most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat how you know how much at risk is the business to disruption and we're in I would say a period the greatest period of disrupt ability in history right technology you know a couple of 19-year-olds can you know leave whatever University or maybe they didn't even go in the first place uh they can raise you know millions of dollars uh they can get access to infinite uh bandwidth storage uh they can contract with uh engineers in lowcost markets around the world they can build a virtual company and they can disrupt businesses that seem super established over time and then on top of that you have major companies with multi- trillion dollar market caps working to find profits wherever they can and so that's a dangerous World in a way to be an investor and so you want to you have to find businesses that it's hard to foresee a world in which they get disrupted and the beauty of the restaurant business and we've actually our best track record is in restaurants we've never lost money uh we've only made a fortune interestingly investing restaurants a big part of it it's a really simple business and if you you know get your pootle right and you're at 100 stores you know it's not so hard to Envision getting to 200 stores and then getting to 500 stores right and the key is maintaining the brand image growing intelligently having the right systems uh you know now when you go from 100 stores to 3500 stores you have to know what you're doing there's a lot of complexity right you know if you think about your local restaurant uh you know the family's working in the business they're they're watching the cash register and you can probably open another restaurant you know across town but there are very few restaurant operators that own more than a few restaurants and operate them successfully and the and the quick service business is about systems and building a model that uh a stranger who doesn't know the restaurant industry can come in and enter the business and build a successful uh successful franchise now Chipotle is not a franchise company they actually own all their own stores but many of the most successful restaurant companies are franchise models like a Burger King a McDonald's Tim Horton you know all these various Brands Popeyes and there it's about systems but the same systems apply whether you own all the stores and it's run by a big Corporation or whether the owners of the rest resturants are are sort of franchisees you know local entrepreneurs so if the restaurant has scaled to a certain number that means they've figured out some kind of system that works it's very difficult to develop that kind of system so that's a moe a moe is you get to a certain scale and you do it successfully and the brand is now in the in the understood by the consumer and what's interesting about Chipotle is what they've achieved is difficult right they're not buying frozen hamburgers getting shipped in they're buying fresh you know sustainably sourced ingredients the preparing food in the store that was the first right the quality of the product of Chipotle is incredible it's the highest quality food you can get for you can get a serious dinner for under 20 bucks uh and eat really Health you know healthfully and very high quality ingredients and that's just not available anywhere else and it's very hard to replicate and to build those relationships with you know Farmers around the country it's a lot easier to make a deal with one of the big you know massive food produc producers and buy your pork from them uh than to buy from a whole bunch of farmers around the country and so it's that is a big moat for Chipotle very difficult to replicate and by the way another company I think you have a stake is is McDonald's no we own a company called restaurant Brands restaurant Brands owns a number of Quick service companies one of which is Burger King Burger King okay well um it's been a meme for a while but I've Burger King is great too Wendy's whatever but usually go McDonald's I'll just eat burger patty I don't know if you knew you could do this but a burger patty at Burger King can do this McDonald's it's actually way cheaper they'll just sell you the Pat the Patty and it's cheap it's like $150 or $2 for per Patty and it's about 250 calories and it's just me and despite like the criticism of memes out there that's pretty healthy stuff it's healthy stuff and so when I do when I go my the healthiest I feel is when I do carnivore it doesn't sound healthy but if I eat only meat I feel really good I lose wait I have all this energy it's crazy and the when I'm traveling the easiest way to get me is that did you go to McDonald's you order six patties exactly so there's this sad meme of me just sitting alone in a car when I'm traveling just eating beef patties and McDonald but I love it and you got to do what what you love what makes you happy and that's what makes me happy we should maybe we'll have Burger King feature in what about flame world what's with these fried burgers we got to get you to Burger King you know grilled burgers wait is this like fast food trash I didn't know I don't know the details of how they're made I'm not not I don't have Allegiance think we got a chance to switch you to Burger King great we'll see I I'm I'm making so many deals today one in conclusion as Bill Amman eloquently illustrates investing in companies like Chipotle entails a thorough understanding of their business model competitive advantages and potential for long-term growth amman's insights shed light on the meticulous research process involved in assessing a company's value and its moat emphasizing the importance of scalability brand integrity and operational excellence with his characteristic enthusiasm amman's discussion extends Beyond Finance to personal habits showcasing his pragmatic approach and passion for finding value in unexpected places
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