저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: ARK 투자 상품은 현재 금리 인상·긴축 환경에서 하락 중이나, 인플레이션이 둔화되면 반등할 것이라는 주장. [배경·현황] ARK 대표 ETF는 최근 1년간 약 40% 하락한 반면 S&P500은 약 25% 상승해 격차가 크다. 연준은 2022년 3월경 채권매입(양적완화)을 중단하고 이후 채권 매도·금리 인상으로 대차대조표를 축소할 예정이다. [원인 분석] 금리 상승은 지속적 자금 조달이 필요한 혁신 기업에 불리하며, 금리 상승이 ARK 관련 종목 하락의 핵심 원인으로 제시됨. 알고리즘 트레이더가 초기 팬데믹 시기 수익성 낮고 현금 쿠션이 적은 기업을 과도하게 공매도해 유전체 등 혁신주가 불이익을 받았다는 주장. [언급 종목] 텔라닥(Teladoc)과 줌(Zoom)은 밸류에이션 부담, 매출 성장 둔화, 현금 부족 특성으로 알고리즘에 의해 매도당했으나, 매출 성장 가속 전망으로 저평가라고 주장. 두 종목 모두 약 70% 하락했다고 언급. 텔라닥은 ARK의 두 번째 큰 포지션, 줌은 네 번째 포지션. [인플레이션 지표 근거] 중고차 가격(맨하임 지수): 팬데믹 중 연 60% 상승했으나 최근 월 1.2% 상승으로 둔화, 중고차 가격은 4% 하락하며 하락 추세 전망. 중고차 재고는 정상 43일 대비 54일로 누적. 소비자심리: 미시간대 소비자신뢰지수가 코로나 당시 수준으로 급락. 11월 소매판매는 명목 0.3% 증가했으나 실질 지출은 연율 약 3.5% 감소로 제시. 미국 GDP: 성장분이 대부분 재고 축적에서 나왔고 실질 최종판매는 부진, 도매·소매 재고가 급증하며 가격 압력 완화 예상. 구매관리자지수(PMI): 약 4% 하락, 지불가격 지수가 예상보다 크게 하락(62, 여전히 50 이상이나 빠르게 둔화). [리스크·조건] 공급 부족이 지속되면 ARK 상품은 더 하락할 수 있음. 인플레이션 둔화가 확인되면 연준이 양적완화로 돌아설 가능성이 있어 ARK에 유리하다는 시나리오. [출연자 전망] 캐시 우드는 ARK가 인플레이션 둔화 후 상당히 반등할 것이라 확신하며, 본인 IRA의 절반 이상을 ARK 상품에 투자 중이라고 밝힘. 14개 혁신 기술의 융합으로 폭발적 성장이 올 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
arc invest is in the midst of the worst downturn in its history in the last year ark's flagship etf has lost about 40 of its value while the s p 500 has gained nearly 25 for arc investors this is a worrisome gap the cause of this underperformance is ultimately linked to the macroeconomic environment archinvest will continue to crash unless these issues are reversed or at least rectified this video will explain what those variables are as well as what kathy wood has to say about the arc investment downturn welcome to financial market tv if you're new to the channel and enjoy content like this hit that subscribe button and the notification bell also please don't hesitate to share your comments down below and give this video a like let's get started the fed has completely failed to save america's economy on all fronts equities and consumer prices accelerated at all time highs as fed chief jerome powell printed extravagant sums of money during the pandemic the federal reserve is now acting in the exact opposite manner they are reversing its prior decisions and will soon withdraw money from the economy estimating that it will stop buying bonds by mid-march also known as quantitative easing from then the fed will start selling bonds and boosting interest rates to reduce its balance sheet in layman's terms the fed started printing money in 2020 and 2021.
in 2022 though the fed will use a vacuum to take back a considerable portion of it in the short run this will probably have a negative impact on the economy which is already factored into present valuations the reason for this is that the fed sells bonds bond rates must rise increasing interest rates are an issue for creative companies because they need to borrow money on a regular basis to keep developing greater interest rates indicate that borrowing costs are higher which is bad for innovative companies bond rates have lately risen and investors expect them to continue to rise as a result arc invest linked stocks continue to plummet week after week so when will this turbulence end so that innovation can flourish inflation is at the heart of the solution if the fed continues to wreck the economy it's very likely that the fed would revert to quantitative easing which is when the fed buys bonds on the other hand if inflation rises to new highs the fed will have to either stick to its current strategy or become even more active in its withdrawal in plain terms if inflation decreases the money printer will most likely come back on benefiting arch invest on the contrary if it rises the money shortage will persist for a variety of reasons cappy believes the first scenario will occur but first i'd like to address their reasoning for why arc is crashing the pricing of so many automated traders the second scenario we discussed is that inflation will continue to rise many investors believe that algorithmic traders improve market efficiency yet the opposite is actually true during the early stages of the pandemic algorithmic traders concentrated their effects on shorting firms that were losing money while simultaneously having a small capital cushion these algorithms work in general but not in all industries genomic stocks for example fulfilled those criteria and were significantly penalized as a result any rational person on the other hand would recognize that genomics businesses would have a role in the pandemic solution dislodged after a month of declines genomic stocks are on demand kathy believes that in the exact same situation automated traders are punishing equities that are perceived as riskier and are rotating to value because to inflation fears and rising interest rates high valuation multiples minuscule earnings diminishing sales growth and poor cash buffers are just a few of these trades zoom and teledoc for example are the two stocks with the most conviction that follow these qualities both of these equities are on the verge of being completely destroyed having lost nearly 70 percent of their value teleduck is our second largest position and zoom is the fourth largest position investors like these two stocks to tech companies during the dot-com bubble but kathy thinks they are totally wrong she believes that the dot-com bubble was premature and that the dreams at that time were becoming real now the dreams back then were quite transformative and led to the cloud and ai as kathy stated we are living in the reality that the dream started and this reality has companies like teledoc and zoom just to give you a sense of the contrast here you know teledoc has about 2 billion in sales its revenues have gone up four-fold since the beginning of the coronavirus and we don't think that its revenues are going to go down anytime soon what we're seeing in the market is a focus on year-on-year moments and this is the last of the really tough comparisons zoom's revenue one year ago fourth quarter was up 370 percent and in this fourth quarter of the quarter they will report to be up to 19 to 20 and that's probably the low point of its growth rate we believe zoom's revenue growth is going to accelerate from there we talked about the macroeconomic environment and how it's pushing ark to invest in the crash but when will the crash come to an end the cooldown arch will most certainly rebound significantly once inflation begins kathy feels that multiple indicators are pointing to a significant slowdown in inflation in the near future kathy's indicators aren't being covered by the traditional financial media which effectively brainwashes investors into believing that inflation must continue to rise the first signal is the cost of a used car economist and financial professionals have utilized the mannheim used vehicle value index as a tracker for used automobile prices this index rose dramatically during the pandemic but new data suggests that the bubble may be about to break at its height the index grew at a rate of about 60 percent a year but prices have recently begun to rise at a rate of 1.2 percent per month this is a significant shift indicating that inflation may be more transient than people believe consumers have begun to establish their own second hand vehicle inventories and this inventory momentum can't last indefinitely this i believe was the most fascinating aspect of the current economic situation the used automobile index for high-end vehicles has begun screaming on a year-over-year basis the price of second-hand automobiles had grown at their high there was a sixty percent increase in the cpi as a result of this well there have been a few reports recently that imply the bubble was in used cars which is extremely interesting used automobiles costs are currently declining by four percent but they're still up 46 and they're starting to decline and what that tells us is that they'll keep falling despite the fact that they've had a disproportionate effect on the cpi in the used car market there is now an inventory buildup kathy feels that normal inventories for secondhand autos are now 43 days however now they're 54 days old so much better than normal their lows were in the area of a 20-day supply many people are now looking at the increase in used car costs and they're probably considering selling that automobile they bought to avoid taking public transportation during corona if they observe prices falling they will most likely move a little faster consumer sentiment is the second sign that kathy is keeping an eye on although consumer prices are rapidly rising this does not necessarily indicate a high level of consumer demand low supply rather than high demand is the primary source of inflation supply networks are unable to match current consumer demand which is already beginning to decline retail units are only expanding at a 0.3 percent month over month rate which is not keeping pace with a 0.77 month over month growth in consumer prices this indicates that consumer spending power is not keeping pace with price rises the consumer confidence index in the university of michigan which is fast falling to a new low exemplifies this mood nicely consumer mood has plummeted to levels last seen during the coronavirus outbreak in november and december now that's a very important part of the time of the year for the consumer to be feeling unconfident because it's the biggest selling season of the year as a result we suspect there is an issue we now have retail sales figures for november we're at a zero point deficit they were up 0.3 percent but what did real expenditure do when inflation was taken into account that's nearly three and a half percent on an annualized basis during a critical time of year if you add in services to your retail sales you'll notice that real consumption in total goods and services was unchanged again this is a critical time of the year and it was also a time when we anticipated a huge surge in service consumption as a result of the pent up demand but we were oblivious to it so it is one clue that things isn't quite right out there in addition to the used carbobble popping and consumer sentiment weakening the usgdp is also pointing towards a massive buildup in inventory that gross domestic product or gdp measures the total amount of goods and services sold in the country the u.s gdp has been increasing recently which sounds great on the surface however the entire gdp growth was from businesses purchasing new inventory that isn't even being used wholesale inventories and retail inventories are accounting for the entire gdp growth which has serious implications if businesses are building up their inventory that is not being sold then prices will have to struggle according to kathy in the third quarter of last year real gdp was up 2.3 it was a big disappointment relative to expectations but what the headlines did not feature or still not featuring is that practically all of that went into inventories it wasn't sold real final sales so even in the third quarter now we're starting to think at a time when everyone was talking about supply chain problems and she thinks what we're beginning to see is the consumer getting quite upset that the prices of necessities were escalating and destroying purchasing power now what she gets even more interesting is watching that inventory number in the fourth quarter wholesale inventories were up to two and a half percent now that's month to month remember this is when supply chains were causing all kinds of shortages then again in november wholesale inventories were up 1.2 again double digit rate annualized part of the reason is consumption was not playing ball and then you look at the retail inventories in november up two percent again that's month to month annually to quote kathy wood so there is something i don't believe the headlines have adequately represented it's possible that you'll be startled as well the buying managers are the last significant metric that kathy is keeping an eye on the purchasing managers index or pmi for short is a study conducted by the country's top purchasing and supply executives according to kathy this index recently declined by almost 4 month over month which is showing that the purchasing power of consumers has rapidly declined and the other december statistics that we got besides autos are the pmos the total pmi and pmi for services both of them came down and prices paid in the purchasing managers index came down a lot more than people were expecting kathy thinks the expectation was somewhere around the high 70s or 80s this is a diffusion index instead it was 62.
now that still means prices are up because they're still above 50 but coming down pretty fast we've talked about many indicators showing that inflation could slow down in the future if those indicators are overcome by other factors like the continued supply shortage arcs etfs could easily crash even more however kathy definitely has a lot on the line and she clearly has a lot of conviction in ark's recovery she actually recently disclosed that over half of her ira is currently in arcs as kathy previously stated the innovation that has been evolving and was accelerated coming out of the covid situation is unstoppable and the convergence between and among the 14 different technologies that we are researching is underway now and is causing and will continue to cause explosive growth really the likes of which we haven't seen in our lifetimes so there you have it why arc invest keeps crashing and what will be necessary for it to rebound do you believe kathy is correct in her short-term forecast are you planning to sell hold or purchase arcs thanks for watching the whole video again if you're new and like this type of content subscribe to our channel and don't forget to leave a comment down below and hit that like button also click on the notification bell to get updated on our weekly uploads see you in the next video
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