저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 중국 부동산 버블 붕괴가 임박했으며 일본 1989년식 장기 침체로 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 중국 부동산 버블과 디벨로퍼 부실: 중국 부동산 시장이 크게 상승했고 에버그란데 등 주요 디벨로퍼가 부채 상환에 실패했다. 펀타지아, 모던랜드, 중국프로퍼티스, 신위안 등도 상환 지연·디폴트 사례가 있으며, 디벨로퍼의 대출 규모는 최대 5조 달러로 언급됐다. 일본 1989년과의 유사성: 일본 닛케이는 최고점 대비 약 80% 하락했고 30년 넘게 회복하지 못했다. 가계 자산의 70~80%가 부동산에 묶여 있다는 무디스 분석이 인용됐다. 상환 시한과 정책 리스크: 골드만삭스 계산으로 2022년 1월까지 약 60억 달러 상환이 필요하다고 한다. 중국 당국의 부동산 규제 강화가 전환점이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 붕괴 시점은 2022년 1분기로 예상됐다. 원자재 신호: 철광석 가격은 몇 달간 절반 가까이 하락했고 구리도 10~15% 하락했다. 원자재 가격 하락은 중국 경기 둔화의 신호로 해석됐다. 미 연준과 파급 효과: 연준 반기 금융안정보고서가 중국 부동산 스트레스의 미국 파급 가능성을 경고했다. 전문가 설문에서 약 50%가 중국 규제·부동산 리스크를 위험으로 꼽았다. 유럽은 중국과의 교역 비중이 미국보다 커서 더 큰 타격을 받을 수 있다고 봤다. 투자 전략: 중국 노출을 줄이라고 권했다. 미국 기업 중 중국 노출이 큰 곳은 테슬라 정도이며, 수요가 이미 정점에 도달해 영향이 제한적이라고 평가했다. 출연자 전망: 중국 경기 둔화와 글로벌 충격 가능성에 대해 비관적 입장을 유지했다.
다듬은 글
take a look at china and you'd be seeing it much like japan in 1989 and apparently we are headed for quite a bit of a problem you know it's highly possible that what happened is going to be pretty back soon and this is because of china's economy their economy is on the road to ruin as it heads for a huge market crash and it would take decades for the rest of the world to recover from it if it is anything like japan's devastation in the 80s frankly it has been three decades since that event in japan stock market has yet to recover from it their market crash was brought about by several warning events that took place until it eventually dragged the country into economic hell and with that information there's a chance that china's economy you know china has already crashed this video will explain a theory from kathy wood who believes that china has found itself in a major bubble and is heading for possibly the largest crash ever welcome to financial market tv if you're new to the channel and enjoy content like this hit that subscribe button and the notification bell also please don't hesitate to share your comments down below and give this video a like let's get started over the last few years china's housing market has significantly increased this is demonstrated by the constant rise in china's housing prices with most investors unaware of what's happening china's real estate bubble was so close to popping and it wasn't gonna look pretty right before we tell you the indicators let's go over the striking similarities of china in 2021 and japan in the 1990s in the past decades china's real estate developers have grasped up in order to further expand their real estate portfolios in a quick manner this actually sounds reasonable at first but it also means that the market is completely vulnerable when it moves forward we saw this happen with evergrand which is the most indebted real estate developer in the world the competition is also very evident among the rest of the chinese real estate companies we have at least four other major developers from china who have defaulted or asked their investors for some time to repay their debt namely fantasia holdings modern land china properties and xinyuan real estate all of them continuously fail to pay their debt which goes up to around hundreds of millions according to sources chinese developers took out as much as 5 trillion dollars during the chinese bull run with a leverage this big it's almost impossible to stop a market crash from happening this is quite similar to what happened to japan back in the 1990s from 1990 to o3 japan's nikkei index crashed to around 80 percent from its record highs and currently their index is still yet to redeem those high levels these were known as the lost decades with investors still down to a maximum 25 after 30 years can you imagine investing into the s p 500 but still remain stuck below 25 after all those years painful really so if china were to have that kind of economic destruction it would not only affect their population in the country but also globally across many other countries you see japan was at the height of their real estate boom back in 1989 when their nikkei index reaching to 40 000 the rest of the globe were rooting for japan praising their economic rise to being possibly the biggest economy in the world yeah that didn't happen the real estate boom was going to slowly come undone a lot of the people probably heard about the emperor's palace a piece of land back in japan that was worth more than this entire state of california it was actually destined to fail and now their nikkei is still struggling to climb back to its rate of 40 000 even more than 30 years later a credit analyzer moody's says that approximately 70 to 80 percent of china's household wealth is tied up in real estate so this means if the country's real estate market crashes so will 80 of china and this would result in the whole global economy freezing a lot of countries if not all depending on china for different products and manufacturing basically a crash in china coming from a real estate crash would catalyze a slow production of various goods worldwide the crash is expected somewhere during the first quarter of the year 2022 which as you know is basically right now goldman sachs was able to calculate that china has around 6 billion dollars in debt to pay by january 2022 that is significantly higher than the current developer debt payment of less than 2 billion back in november just a few months back no surprise that a lot of chinese companies already are way behind in their payments of their respective debts but can you picture out what would happen if the payments explode in the coming months another catalyst to china's economic downfall would be their communist groups attempt to cracking down illegal real estate deals strict regulations were regulated by the ccp on the real estate companies to ensure its quality service to society we think it's marked with good intentions but kathy wood believed it to be them playing with fire and we all know what happens when we play with fire ouch according to kathy china's real estate has been seriously boosting its country's economy in moving forward it was part of the country's infrastructure when they built their economy it is also crucial when it comes to consumer savings because approximately 75 of china's consumer savings are in real estate but now china's real estate is a little bit shaky and housing prices are hitting low rates it might have caused a bit of a stir with the chinese as well the experts have been trying to tackle several issues in the economy because what we can see is an overwhelming comparison some people are able to afford to live in luxury properties while others beneath them can barely stay on the streets with a roof on their heads but the chinese leaders have essentially tolerated this kind of truth so this is driving their prices downward and affecting those who actually had money initially and they're gonna lose it their money but china is willing to risk it like we mentioned they're basically playing with fire because they are also touching the financial regulators who oversaw financial institutions who were lending to the real estate sector several financial firms are also being investigated by the chinese government real estate has been the gears behind their economy after all china's demands for commodities is 15 of the whole world's gdp with the rest of the commodities having higher demand rates from china as well like we mentioned china is a pretty big catalyst for most of the world's economy among these commodities are iron and copper which by the way are crashing at an insane rate as of this moment iron has dropped more than half of its percentage in the last couple months even though it has tried to climb back up in the recent months it has basically relapsed as it hit new lows copper prices are also down by 10 or 15 in the market but it's still in a safe zone compared to historical matters but nevertheless there is visible decline when a commodity's price declines it seems beneficial to a lot of companies across the globe it typically brings out a lower cost of goods or cogs this then brings them a higher profit margin however what's happening right now is a bit different decline in prices is just proof that the chinese economy is slowing down and if it continues to do so at a significant rate the whole world's economy will inevitably follow it's surprising that no one really points out the possible correlation of china and to the world's commodities so since commodities are beginning to falter their prices it's highly possible that china is starting to falter as well and like we mentioned that is not good kathy believes that investors already know how a further crash is bound to happen what she doesn't understand is why is the media or economic media at least keeping quiet these warning signs should have been made aware considering how much of an impact it's going to make globally but maybe it's because it's being shadowed but much more complex or different issues are going on the other side of the economy different issues that are taking more space in the headlines at some point kathy believes that the world's investors would come to a sudden realization that they have been ignoring what was going to happen so if china's economy is in deep waters so is the united states although not to the same degree the feds have already warned how a market crash from china can seriously impact the us recently they have put out their semi-annual financial stability report and there was a bit of a red flag on that report it was the feds expressing their concern over the china's real estate bubble suddenly popping they quote stresses in china's real estate sector could strain the chinese financial system with possible spillover to the united states they also stated how the debt of the chinese government and some business sectors remain large with a high leverage from the financial sector with around five trillion dollars of debt china is on a cliffhanger their increased regulation might just be the tipping point moreover the important note from the feds is the effect of china's crash on the united states they quoted given the size of china's economy and financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world financial stresses in china could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment pose risk to global economic growth and affect the united states adverse development in other emerging market economies spurred by a sudden among the fed's concerns we could see a list of potential shocks that can hit the us economy while it tries to go forward it was created by 26 market experts and is accumulated to create a percentage-based statistic it shows that almost 50 percent of market experts see china regulatory and property risks as a potential danger listed is also the u.s china tensions which they believe is also an area of concern and to top it all off 15 percent of market experts highly believe that china slowing down could be bad news for the u.s now the feds have obviously pointed out their concern for china's crash even for the u.s kathy wood also believes that this will severely affect not only the states european countries as well she states that china will shock the world with its vulnerability all of a sudden this can result in the us taking a hit europe taking an even bigger hit and that's because europe has been china's trading partner to a bigger extent than the united states what investors can do is to soften the blow to reduce their exposure to china and their market this includes corporations in america that rely on chinese goods as well if we take a look at the lineup of american corporations a good number mostly do not invest in china the only company on top with a significant rate of exposure to china is tesla and even for the automotive giant it's not a big area of concern ceo elon musk does not have to worry about a crash for the demand of his tesla vehicles because it has already reached a safe peak so here we come to a conclusion that china could be dramatically slowing down as explained by kathy wood we would all hope that our investors steer it to a more plausible direction or else this crash could be the next u.s import that's made in china you're watching the whole video again if you're new and like this type of content subscribe to our channel and don't forget to leave a comment down below and hit that like button also click on the notification bell to get updated on our weekly uploads see you in the next video
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