저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Bill Ackman의 2022년 2월 시점 시장 진단과 헤지 전략을 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 연준의 제로금리 유지와 막대한 재정부양으로 인플레이션이 커져 시장 급락 위험이 있으며, Ackman은 금리 인상과 채권 시장 공매도(스왑션·CDS)로 대비하고 있다. [시장 배경] Ackman은 2004년 이후 연평균 16.9% 수익률을 기록했고, 2008년과 코로나 시기 큰 수익을 냈다고 소개된다. [인플레이션 진단] 소비자물가 상승률이 2020년 11월 1.2%에서 2021년 11월 6.8%로 급등했다. 다만 Ackman은 주거비 산정 방식(OER, 소유자 추정 임대료)이 과소 집계된다고 주장하며, 단독주택 임대 데이터 기준 실질 인플레이션이 10.1%라고 말한다. [연준 및 재정 정책] 연준이 제로금리와 채권 매입을 이어가며 인플레이션을 키우고 있다고 비판한다. 2021년 10월 연준에 금리 인상 등 정책 전환을 촉구했다. 바이든 정부의 2~3조 달러 규모 인프라 법안도 인플레이션 압력 요인으로 언급된다. [투자 전략] Ackman은 비대칭 리스크(저위험·고수익) 베팅을 선호한다. 채권 가격과 금리는 반대로 움직이므로 채권 시장 공매도는 금리 상승에 베팅하는 것이다. 구체적으로 금리 상승 시 이익이 나는 페이어(put) 스왑션과 신용부도스왑(CDS)을 매입했다. 롱온리 주식 포트폴리오의 헤지 목적이다. 영상은 스왑션·CDS를 소액 자본으로 큰 수익을 낼 수 있는 파생상품으로 설명한다. [언급 자산과 방향] 미국채 10년물 금리 상승(인플레이션 반영으로 금리 상승 전망, 채권 가격 하락). 주식시장은 금리 인상으로 밸류에이션 하락 우려. 특정 개별 종목 가격 목표치는 없음. [리스크 및 조건] 중국 성장 둔화, 신규 코로나 변이, 공급망 제약, 지정학·사이버 보안 리스크를 하락 요인으로 꼽는다. 연준이 금리를 올리면 시장 급락이 거의 확실하다는 전제. 영상 제작자는 Ackman이 100% 옳지 않을 수 있으나 신뢰도를 고려할 때 대비하는 것이 좋다고 결론짓는다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 물가 상승과 금리 인상 우려가 지속되며, 주식시장 급락 가능성에 대비해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
let's meet bill ackman one of the top-notch investors out there and for an incredible reason too he has gained an average return of 16.9 per year since 2004. if you look at the snp's average return with the same given time frame ackman's is way higher during the 2008 recession his skills and expertise fueled his portfolio with billions of dollars and if that's not impressive enough he also turned an initial 27 million to 2.6 billion dollars in the middle of the pandemic-stricken economy you could see how this legend made use of the last two crashes and earned billions now he is ready once again to put his bet on something he believes would be another giant cash cow for him well he isn't actually a very likable person to some to say the least but his record tells us that it wouldn't hurt to actually get a thing or two from him that's exactly what we're gonna sum up for you what is ackman seeing in the possible future and what can we learn to follow into his billionaire footsteps first of all bill has two major strategies that he uses as a recipe for his annual high returns number one is himself or rather himself that he uses his influential powers to somehow impact several business operations specifically the ones he has invested in this is also called activist investing the second one is a bit more profitable which is short-term speculation and this second method is what we will break down in today's video you see bill ackman is very wise when it comes to betting on short-term movements as he always looks out for asymmetric risk essentially investors would like to think that the higher risk you take the higher reward you get but people like ackman don't think so hedge fund managers such as him tend to look for asymmetric risks which is low risk and high reward recently ackman found bets with this kind of asymmetric ratio it's no secret that we only currently have inflation slowly growing and accelerating despite previous inflation rates being only brief if we look at the numbers the annual growth wraith in consumer prices has jumped from 1.2 in november 2020 to 6.8 in november 2021.
this is obviously an overwhelming leap in just a year here's how the fed has been a bit stubborn when it comes to the printing flow of trillions of dollars all with these zero percent interest rates the fed's actions have come along with the price as this has increased the stock market significantly but this is not long term back in october 2021 bill ackerman presented to the federal reserve about how they should be taking a step back he showed the inevitability of a big market crash that is about to happen given a few contributing variables first the government has projected 5.1 trillion dollars of stimulus into the economy when the pandemic began this at 5.1 trillion dollars is actually 25 of the gdp which is unprecedented in its consequences currently the feds are constantly purchasing bonds worth up to billions of dollars this is continuing to save the us economy however for now and what this is doing is causing more future economic problems to pile up instead of actually finding a complete solution fed's chair jerome powell is responding to inflation calling it something frustrating to look into the future the stock market crashing doesn't necessarily happen out of the blue there are always factors or even that subsequently lead up to catalyze a market crash the fed's actions have left two options both with not so pretty outcomes too first is raising the interest to stop quantitative easing for the economy's sake when this happens it's almost certain that a market crash is gonna happen but at the same time this will save the us dollar from impending inflation the second option the feds have to use is to pull back and let zero interest rates continue letting inflation accelerate in other words keep printing and printing and printing but the outcome would be generally heavier considering it would lead to a crash as well as destroying the value of the us dollar bill ackman is trying to push the feds to go with the first option which is to back down and begin raising rates again both could lead to a crash either way but we guess it's better to go for the lesser impact when it happens ackman further explained it saying we are continuing to dance while the music is playing and it is time to turn down the music and let it settle down a reference to the 2011 film margin call that tells a story about a hypothetical market crash about to happen the economy has been doing pretty well while bill ackman continues to dance and the feds are keeping rates at zero percent however the feds can be better and shut off the music to give the economy a heavy yet plausible solution to keep up with this strategy ackman is initiating position to hedge his portfolio he stated as we previously disclosed we have to put our money where our mouth is in hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that this rise in rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio there are actually a few number of markets where investors can short their portfolio but akman has his bets on one particular market the bond market the bond market has shown a significant rise during the last 10 years or so this enabled bond yields to go to all-time lows some of you may be aware that an increase in bond prices corresponds to a decrease in bond yields and of course vice versa when the bond prices decrease as the bond yields increase they are inversely related thus shorting the bond market is a bet on bond yields rising currently the 10-year u.s treasury bond yields stand at 1.4 percent a number that is exceedingly lower than the inflation rate so we are to ask why in the world would we purchase bonds when the inflation would be way higher than one percent anyway investing in this asset is certainly like throwing your money into the pits ray dalio kathy wood and warren buffett all believe that bonds are not in good shape as of the moment and we know they're only the ones who think that shorting the bond market is still an uneven bet because bond yields can't go any lower although bond yields can easily increase greatly to account for the big rise in the inflation rate this is the short trade that michael bury is actually doing he has implied that he is joining in the bond market by directly short selling his bond dtf such as tlt or the i shares 20 plus year bond treasury etf however for investors such as bury with a high net worth they may be using a more complex strategy on bonds that is not exactly accessible for retail investors we know bill ackman is certainly doing so he is purchasing two different derivatives credit default swaps and put swaptions these are option contracts to swap bonds with that comes two different interest rates as well first is the floating interest rate that changed based on the bond market and a fixed interest rate that stays just the same in any circumstance swap options are derivatives that are purchased from the perspective of the bond lender instead of obtaining an interest rate for purchasing a bond the owners have to pay bond holders instead meanwhile a puts option is a contract to beat the bond lender while paying a fixed rate to the bond holder once the interest rates increase at a certain point the owner of the puts option would be profiting off the difference of the interest rates when this happens the floating interest rates would be increased by four percent but the owner of the put swaption has a contract to pay a fixed rate of 2 percent this makes the foot swaption owner profit from the difference in interest rates which is 2 percent this difference would increase the put swaption's value also letting the owner make tons of money from it even with a small capital ackman was purchasing swap shins so that when the interest rates increased he'd still continue to profit well from it but if the interest rates decrease or stay the same it doesn't really create an impact on him the other derivative he was buying was credit default swaps this is somehow like buying insurance for a house the owner starts off by paying a small amount periodically to put in perspective let's say 500 per month this derivative is insurance for the borrower's ability to pay monthly in an event where the bond defaults the banks would have to start paying the bond with monthly payments as well and this payment would be a lot higher than the 500 to further explain let's say that amount is thousand dollars per month and hypothetically speaking we can create an analogy of a house catching on fire on insurance because the bank now has to pay an amount as large as five hundred thousand for repairs for a house costing five hundred dollars per month so but swaptions and credit default swaps are the two main strategies that bill ackman is using to be able to profit billions even in the middle of a crash he already did it successfully in the 2008 recession throughout the pandemic and now he is throwing his money on swaptions once more ackman was able to purchase credit default swaps with bond insurers in fannie mae and freddie mac this resulted in the s p going down by 52 on the other hand ackman explained how they were able to finish the year down only a few percent and was able to rise back up to 40 by the following year so he was driven that by hedging gain as well as redeployment of those procedures and buying stocks when the pandemic hit the second quarter of 2020 he did the same process he believed that the best way to address this concern with minimal risk is to buy credit defaults along with this he had very large notion in the credit default swap market once their portfolios declined in value they reversed the position to make their stocks go down but with their hedge extremely valuable this gave them potential capital to be invested amounting to almost two billion dollars in a market that was down he further shares his recent fears in the market with inflation initially he believed inflation would cause higher rates leading to lower values in equity markets they built once again a large position with bets that rates would be increasing more on swaptions anyway these capital commitments are one percent or even half a percent but numbers like these are not impossible to increase and grow into very large rates when an outlier event occurs so we recently mentioned how the annual growth for consumer prices which is 1.2 percent grew exponentially to 6.8 but it's not necessarily factual the rate that we're talking about is tied to consumer price index or cpi the cpi attracts a basket of goods that are weighted and turn into an average for each consumer good this sounds reliable but the housing percentages are not so valid in the price index for ackman an owner's equivalent rent or oer is understanding inflation based on surveys using a more suitable and reliable rent tracker ackman found that instead of 6.8 the annual inflation growth rate should be actually 10.1 he further explains in a tweet and we quote reported inflation is understated owner's equivalent rent oer relies on owner surveys to estimate inflation in housing costs this is an extremely imprecise metric this single family rental market provides more accurate data or in today's reported core cpi was 3.5 percent y-o-y we agree that this is unusual for the oer to be reporting rent prices as low as 3.5 so this sounds pretty inaccurate ackman further tweeted how the largest owners of a single family rental are experiencing 17 increase by the year 30 of the core cpi calculation and 24 the reported cpi is in fact the oer he further added using the more empirical measure in the calculation increases today's core cpi from four point nine percent to nine point zero percent and the cpi from six point eight percent to ten point one percent with a ten point one percent inflation rate it would cause the bond market to be concerned now investors net inflation with adjusted returns will be at 8.7 percent per year some might think that inflation like this is merely transitory but not ackman he says again in a tweet housing inflation is unlikely to abate based on supply and demand trends the inflation the households are experiencing is raging and well in excess of reported government statistics and as if the situation couldn't get any worse the fiscal policies from congress are not much of help joe biden is planning to pass an infrastructure bill under the buildback better bill that may or may not amount to two or three trillion dollars this is actually 10 to 15 percent of the uss entire gdp in conclusion this might let inflation continue to drastically push forward bill ackman also cited a few other concerns which includes the weakening of china's growth future emergence of new covet variants second order impacts from supply chain constraints and geopolitical and cyber security risks these factors can pull back the financial markets from moving forward we could just wait and see there we go bill ackman's take on one of the biggest market crashes in history we might not think he is a hundred percent right but considering his status and credibility he might know a thing or two better be safe than sorry
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