저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 긴축과 중국·독일 경기둔화로 경기침체 가능성이 커졌고, 당장은 분할매수를 준비하되 바닥 신호를 기다리는 입장이다. 연준 긴축 및 인플레이션: 연준이 대규모 유동성 공급 후 금리인상과 대차대조표 축소에 나서고 있고, 인플레이션은 일시적이 아닐 수 있다는 우려가 제기된다. 다만 연준이 과잉반응할 가능성도 있어 인플레가 예상보다 빨리 꺾일 수 있다고 본다. 주식·코인 시장: 성장주와 암호화폐가 크게 하락했고, 나스닥 종목의 약 40%가 고점 대비 50% 이상 떨어졌다. 나스닥 빅테크가 10~15% 더 빠지면 시장 바닥이 가까워질 수 있다고 언급했다. 시장이 미래를 선반영한다는 효율적 시장 관점에서 금리인상이 이미 가격에 반영됐을 가능성을 제시한다. 중국 경기둔화: 중국은 금리를 낮추는 반면 미국은 올리고 있어 양극화가 나타나며, 이로 인해 위안화 약세와 달러 강세가 동시에 진행된다. 중국 부동산 디레버리징(헝다 등)과 오미크론 봉쇄가 성장 둔화를 키우고, 지급준비율 추가 인하가 1~3회 이어질 것으로 전망된다. 독일·공급망: 독일은 2022년 GDP 성장률 전망을 4.1%에서 3.6%로 낮췄다. 공급망 문제로 기업들이 재고를 과잉 주문해 소비 수요와 어긋날 위험이 있다는 점도 언급했다. 헤지와 자금 흐름: 주요 펀드들이 현금 보유나 숏 포지션으로 헤지하면서 시장 하락 압력을 키우고 있다. 대기 자금이 많아 하락 시 매수세가 나올 수 있다는 점도 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 경기침체 가능성이 높지만 침체가 곧 폭락을 의미하지는 않는다고 본다. 2018년 소폭 조정과 비슷한 수준일 수도 있다고 보며, 지금은 달러비용평균법(DCA)으로 천천히 매수를 시작할 시점이라고 말한다. 금리인상이 멈추는 변곡점이 오면 매수를 크게 늘리겠다는 입장이다. 사회자/인터뷰 인용: 데이비드 색스, 제레미 그랜섬, 빌 애크먼 등 다른 인물의 발언이 인용되었으나 예측 대상에서는 제외한다.
다듬은 글
a number of fund managers and billionaires have been warning about a slowdown in the economy during the last few months a billionaire hedge fund manager is one of them the ramification of the fed's actions have recently been the subject of a warning from chamath palihapitiya we saw that would happen after the federal reserve issued enormous amounts of money into the economy when inflation began to rise the financial market soared to all-time highs and speculating became too risky the economy is heavily influenced by the fed the fed's response to rising prices will be the risk in the future many fund managers economists and ordinary investors have expressed concern about this in this video chamath will explain why he believes that investors will no longer be concerned about inflation according to him investors should be looking at a totally different indicator the fed is resolute about shrinking its balance sheet and hiking interest rates to battle inflation in a worrying turn of events inflation has been criticized by millions of people all around the world as not being temporary yet it appears that those fears are self-fulfilling prophecies the fed is overwhelmingly hawkish as a result of the opinion's popularity just like the fed's reaction in march of 2020 the fed may be overreacting again but on the other hand chamath believes that inflation may turn out to be more temporary than people expect simply because the fed may overreact one famous investor named jeremy grantham has been warning of a market crash for america's super bubble he explained how the market has been stabbed by covid money printing unexpected inflation and the promise for higher interest rates the phrase super bubble is used because grantham called 2020 quote unquote an epic bubble and he also called 2021 another bubble we would currently be in a bubble squared or a super bubble i personally don't listen to jeremy grantham because he's essentially a broken clock a broken clock says the same time every day and will be right two times a day in the case of grantham it's unclear whether his money is where his mouth is grantham on the other hand does make some good arguments from time to time by all accounts the us economy as in is a poor spot according to chamath the fed would likely delay its response potentially leading to a recession in the u.s the government has printed 10 trillion dollars in money and the stock market has likewise retreated by 10 trillion a net money outflow could eventually become negative if equities continue to plummet and interest rates continue to rise the fact that growth stocks and cryptocurrencies have plummeted in value in recent months demonstrates this david sacks a well-known venture capitalist discussed why a recession is on the way on the all-in podcast on january 22nd and chamath concurred the most important factor that is pointing towards a potential recession is bifurcation or in other words one division in the global economy you might think that interest rates are increasing around the world but that's not the case while the u.s fed has been increasing interest rates china has actually been lowering them this is concerning for one reason the fed raising interest rates could indirectly crash china's economy which is currently in a weak position because china represents such a significant part of the economy america's economy would suffer as well if china's economy collapse this is a problem because china's real estate industry is currently through a big deleveraging process which involves corporations selling assets quickly to lower their debt not only with evergrand china's second largest real estate developer but also with a slew of other companies we've seen this happen omicron is also having an impact on china at the same time as this shutdowns have been strictly enforced by the chinese government china's economic growth is fast declining as a result of these two reasons and as a result chinese authorities are in a state of panic we need a reasonably loose monetary policy according to yu yongding an economist who earlier advised people's bank of china how much we loosen depends on economic conditions but the policy direction is this the people's bank of china will likely cut the bank's reserve requirement ratio as well it reserve requirement ratio or rrr is the percentage of deposits that banks must hold on to in this example the rr is eight percent if the reserve requirement goes down to six percent then the bank can now loan or invest two percent of its excess reserves on the flip side if the rrr goes up 10 banks will have to sell a portion of their holdings to meet the requirements china's reserve requirement used to be 12 before they lowered it to 11.5 in december 2021 that means the banks now have 0.5 percent excess capital to invest and loan out such a move signals that the chinese economy is struggling and that artificial cash flows are necessary to keep the economy running an anonymous chinese policy insider told reuters we definitely need to loosen policy as a downward pressure on the economy is relatively possible lian ping a chief economist from z investment expects one or two more rrr cuts this year that might sound like a lot but some economists expect even more turmoil such as su hong kai a deputy director of a chinese economic policy commission su hong kai believes that the rrr will be cut by at least three times in 2022 the fed of the united states is one of the reasons why more rate cuts may be required the value of the us dollar will rise when the fed raises interest rates this is due to the fact that holding the dollar would result in higher relative returns as a result in comparison to the chinese currency people would have more dollars not only that but when the chinese government lowers interest rates it causes the yuan to drop this is detrimental to the chinese yuan because investors and institutions have been selling the chinese yuan for us dollars so while the fed is raising and the chinese government is lowering the us dollar will go up while the chinese yuan will go down the people's bank of china is under a lot of strain as a result of this according to the pboc it will concentrate on its own economic crisis but analysts around the world believes that it will not be able to do so so in 2018 a similar situation occurred in the u.s which resulted in a small manufacturing downturn during this time china's gdp grew at the slowest rate in 28 years so how did this all come about in the midst of a trade war in 2018 jerome powell boosted interest rates causing the chinese economy to decelerate significantly as the global economy decelerate dramatically in 2019 the fed was forced to decrease interest rates as a result the manufacturing sector in the u.s fell into a minor recession we're currently in a situation that's similar to the 2018 recession but with the possibility of being worse one week after predicting a recession chamath came even more bearish than before this is because in addition to china germany is also showing signs of a slowdown germany cut 2022 gdp growth forecast to 3.6 from 4.1 percent before the german economic minister robert haddock cited germany's ongoing struggles with the pandemic as one of the main reasons for the slowdown germany's national statistics office also predicted that germany's output for the fourth quarter of 2021 will decrease by 0.5 to 1 percent jerome powell the chair of the fed open market committee or fomc stayed focused on rising interest and reducing asset purchases which supports his argument in a big way some investors may believe that if the fed boosts interest rates the market will be close to a bottom this however is not the case future occurrences are priced by market prices which are forward-looking according to the efficient market theory the market is relatively efficient according to the efficient market theory all prices are based on the available data the hypothesis is not completely true but it's still relevant to a certain degree investors know that rate hikes are coming in that's being reflected in the market right now chamath found out that the market actually tends to increase after rate hikes occur that being said perhaps rate hikes are already being priced in in its time to start dollar cost averaging into the market raising rates is necessary to cool down inflation but doing so as devastating consequences powell adamant claims reaffirmed his thesis this inflation will only last a short time if the global economy slows down as china has shown that inflation might swiftly drop down as the economy slows the prominent hedge fund investor bill ackman has been lobbying the fed to boost interest rates even higher than projected in the bond market ackman has a short position and would benefit if the fed listened to him however that doesn't come as a surprise because ackman is known for manipulating the market in march of 2020.
he ranted on seeing this year about how kovid was going to get worse while cashing out all of his short positions and going long in the market as a result we know that a recession is possible but it does not always simply or imply a catastrophic market crash the s p 500 indexes fell by 18 in 2018 due to a minor recession in the united states i don't think that's a lot of information one of the reasons that this is there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines not only that but plenty of tech stocks have already crashed by humongous amounts forty percent of the stocks on the nasdaq have crashed at least fifty percent from their highs that level of decline is almost in line with previous economic disasters perhaps the bottom is close by for the market he believes that once big tech goes down 10 to 15 more the market bottom will be nearby to make matters worse due to supply chain difficulties businesses have ordered too much inventory this is battling him because there will be a huge lot of goods sitting in the warehouse if consumer demand does not match the excess inventory coming soon on the all in podcast chamath recently spoke with a supply chain specialist named ryan peterson on how this problem could deepen the recession peterson who is the ceo of flexport detailed how he believes that businesses may have ordered too much inventory the interesting part of this market downturn is that large percentages of the crash is instigated from people hedging their portfolios almost all top tier fund managers are hedging their portfolio in some shape or form the initiation of these hedges is likely negatively impacting the market for instance buffett is hedging his portfolio with cash while kathy wood bill ackman and chamoth is hedging with short positions these hedges have a considerable impact on the market and could be the driver for the current correction since the 2008 recession chamath has observed the most hedging activity he has ever seen the fact that there is simply too much cash on the sidelines will most likely not enter long if the market continues to plummet because market prices are forward-looking i will most likely begin dollar cost averaging into the crash which might not be as modest as 2018 correction now that prices are correcting and rate increases are being priced in when inflation cools down i believe market will reach an inflection point and rate increases will halt if not reverse extrinsic factors such as worldwide economic downturns from china are difficult to predict when that exact time will occur if that happens i'll simply up my dollar cost average significantly if it does so do you agree with chamath
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