저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행의 대규모 유동성 공급이 자산시장을 떠받치고 있지만 약세장과 버블 위험이 있으니 원자재·금 등 저평가 자산에 분산하라는 메시지. 유동성과 시장 흐름: 미국 중앙은행과 정부가 막대한 돈을 찍고 지출해 그 돈이 시장으로 흘러들어 가고 있으며, 당분간 미국 경제와 시장은 좋아질 것이라는 전망. 약세장 위험: 시장이 하락 전환하면 부채가 많은 기업부터 신뢰가 무너지고 일부 기업은 파산하며 그 충격이 번질 수 있다는 경고. 이는 역사적으로 수백 번 반복된 일반적 약세장 패턴이라고 설명. 투자 원칙: 누구나 자신이 아는 분야에 자산을 배분해야 하며, 발표자 본인이나 타인의 말을 맹목적으로 따르지 말라는 조언. 예로 러시아나 원자재를 모르면 투자하지 말라고 함. 중국 와인주: 코로나로 술집·식당이 문을 닫아 타격을 입었으나 사람들이 다시 외출하기 시작하면 회복할 수 있고, 제품과 경영이 괜찮아 보인다고 평가. 일본 ETF: 일본 시장은 사상 최고치 대비 30% 이상 하락해 기회가 있을 수 있으나, 미국은 사상 최고치를 경신 중. 채권과 부동산: 채권은 버블 상태이며 많은 나라의 부동산도 버블로 보임. 주식 중 상당수가 사상 최고치를 기록 중. 원자재: 현재 가장 싼 자산군이라고 판단하며 원자재를 계속 매수 중. 설탕은 80%, 은은 50% 하락한 상태. 석유는 복잡한 바닥을 형성하는 중이며 셰일 붐 종료와 수요 감소로 에너지 바닥이 형성되는 조짐. 금: 금은 수백 년간 존재한 원자재이며 바닥을 다지는 중. 정부나 통화에 문제가 생길 때를 대비해 금과 은을 보유해야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
the united states central bank has been printing gigantic amounts of money and the central bank central government has been spending huge amounts of money so all this money's got to go somewhere it's going into the markets the economies are getting better because the economy stopped but they're still not anywhere near what they were before and that's happening all over the world because we're going from zero to i don't know how far we're going no so for a while the economy in the us is going to get better and certainly the markets as long as they print all this money well when markets start going down for when bear markets start for whatever reason uh people are very skeptical of companies that have a lot of debt because there's fear as exuberance gives way to fear people start worrying about will they survive or can they survive or their earnings must go down because they have so much debt and some companies start going bankrupt really bad ones and that and it spreads i mean this is just a simple bear market now i'm not making any of this up it's happened hundreds of times in fair markets all over the world uh throughout history and that's the way they work well everybody should allocate their assets and what they themselves know they shouldn't be listening to me or anybody else should only invest in what they know i may have a hundred percent invested in russia but if they can't even find russia on the map they shouldn't think about investing in russia i may have a lot of money in commodities but if they don't know what commodities are you everybody should invest in what they know should not listen to others and then they will know how to get through any problems that develop well chinese wine companies recently you know the virus caused bars to close restaurants are closed people stop going out that's starting to change i can see it on the internet i told you about japanese etfs the japanese markets down over 30 percent from its all-time high u.s is making all-time highs so there's certainly still places that maybe there are opportunities i mentioned chinese wine stocks i suspect that very few people watching this show know there are chinese wine stocks much less that they might go up and i tell you the viruses closed restaurants and bars and everything else so conceivably these stocks will go up again when people start going out as far as i can tell they have good products decent management etc i don't just invest in stocks i i want i i short i'm not short bonds right now but commodities currencies lots of other opportunities as i look around the world bonds are a bubble many stocks are making all-time highs property in many countries is certainly in a bubble the cheapest asset class i know are commodities now i mean sugar's down 80 percent silver's down 50 percent from its all-time high these are the kind this is not a bubble as i look at asset classes at the moment commodities seem to be the cheapest i'm buying more commodities as we speak oil is in the process of making a complicated bottom uh you know bottoms go up and down up and down and go sideways for a while and then eventually turn around and go up you know known reserves of oil continue to decline except for fracking but that fracking bubble has burst before if you could spell fracking they would give you money but now that's over you have to make money and so we're beginning to see bottoms developing in energy because it takes a while and because of the demand which is down a lot but we're making a bottom with gold i mean i doubt very seriously if anybody's going to take gold as a currency anywhere maybe a few shops but very very few in the world so you can define it as a currency if you want it really doesn't matter to me um gold is a commodity which has been around for centuries and will continue to be around for centuries whether we like it or not i'm an old peasant and us old peasants know when things go wrong we better have some gold we better have some silver in our closet or under our bed because this what is the thing which will get us through when governments or currencies start having problems you
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