저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 비트코인을 핵심 자산으로 보며, 이더리움 등 2·3순위 코인은 승자독식 구조상 상대적으로 불리하다고 봄. 비트코인 중심 견해 비트코인은 기존 금융 인프라에 대한 분산된 헤지 자산으로 설명되며, 이를 과장된 신념이 아닌 실용적·비감정적 언어로 전달해야 대중 수요가 커진다고 주장함. 이더리움 및 기타 코인 평가 이더리움 등 다른 코인이 성공할 가능성은 있으나, 시장은 대표 자산(벨웨더)으로 이익이 몰리는 경향이 있어 2·3순위 코인은 불리하다는 입장. 이더리움에 대한 긍정 언급은 없음. 기관 채택 논리 기관 재무담당자는 커리어 리스크 때문에 현금을 방치하는 경향이 있어, 비트코인을 포트폴리오 분산 수익·헤지 관점으로 설명해야 한다고 주장. 리스크 보험 등 복잡한 헤지를 쓰는 기업도 비트코인을 고려할 수 있다고 봄. 차세대 인프라와 NFT 스테이블코인, 스마트컨트랙트, 차세대 인프라(T+0 결제)의 가치를 언급. 본인은 NFT 포트폴리오를 구축 중이며 수개월 내 보유 내역을 공개할 계획이라고 밝힘. 리스크 및 조건 비트코인 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간 예측은 없음. 기관 채택은 실용적 설명이 전제되어야 한다는 조건부 주장. 출연자 전망 비트코인은 장기적으로 기관·대중 채택이 확대될 자산으로 보는 긍정적 장기 견해. 단기 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
well if you're running a stable coin or you know smart contracts on top of ethereum all of this next generation infrastructure i mean this is t plus zero right you're settling things in unanimously and that's really good for everybody which coins if you will cryptocurrencies digital assets are you a holder of are you a believer in well i will be publishing this soon i am building a fairly sizable portfolio of what are called nfts what it is so like another example is like the entire d5 movement i was i got laughed at because somebody asked me laura shin asked me what dfi was and i was like i have no idea but i own bitcoin and and i was just telling the truth which is like i just don't i don't have the time to learn about all this stuff and you know at some point somebody will explain it to me and i'll know a little bit better but it's not to say that it's not important but it is to say that everything has a time in place yeah because when i'm looking at that whole world i see all of the other platforms blockchains tokens and i'm just thinking okay well here's a big diverse deep rich universe and it's i can't just seeing it being about bitcoin yes bitcoin's this great asset and it's a wonderful gift for us all and thank you very much we can all make some money but this whole space okay that's super interesting to me because it's it's it it is anti-fragile it's over a way and it offers a whole bunch of solutions to the problem of finance which is a total so do you see merit and any of the other crypto assets uh in particular ethereum no and why not you know it's kind of like when you have a bellwether instrument the gains typically go to the winner when there's a clear winner it's not that these other things can't win but there's a weird psychological effect that almost drives these second and third tier winners which is a desire by people almost out of this sense of insecurity to not want to admit that there's a winner simply because they weren't the one to pick it first my whole view with bitcoin was always that it's much better to be pragmatic and lay out a moderate case which is that it's a hedge in a portfolio against the sort of traditionalist financial infrastructure and so many people would get mad because they would anchor on this extremist view that it had to be everything it had to be the solution and fantasy at everything the problem with that view is that that's just not how you maximize demand right when you think about products that really get to scale there's a simplicity and what that simplicity gives is people a very simple decision to make do i want to use this or do i not want to use it and so if you want you know for example bitcoin to get the mass market scale the most powerful thing that you can do is describe it in simple pragmatic terms that don't require zealous belief and so it's just a it's just an example to me that sort of reinforces this idea that extremism never wins and kind of like centrism is sort of the the value maximizing function yeah because when i'm looking at that whole world i see all of the other platforms blockchains tokens and i'm just thinking okay well here's a big diverse deep rich universe and it's i can't just seeing it being about bitcoin yes bitcoins this great asset and it's a wonderful gift for us all and thank you very much we can all make some money but this whole space okay that's super interesting to me because it's it's it is anti-fragile and it's over a way and it offers a whole bunch of solutions to the problem of finance which is a total show it's true it just requires sort of like a de-escalated like i find that a lot of people in bitcoin and it's so funny because like many of them got there well after i did they're just so arrogant about it and i don't know maybe i'm just dumber but like i just don't understand why people need to believe so much versus you know view it more pragmatically and unemotionally because i think they'll find more success in the more unemotional you know treatment of what it is so like another example is like the entire d5 movement i was i got laughed at because somebody asked me laura shin asked me what dfi was and i was like i have no idea but i own bitcoin and and i was just telling the truth which is like i just don't i don't have the time to learn about all this stuff and you know at some point somebody will explain it to me and i'll know a little bit better but it's not to say that it's not important but it is to say that everything has a time in place and if we are going to focus our energies on making bitcoin mass market and scale we have to dial down this zealous rhetoric and dial up pragmatist rhetoric pragmatist rhetoric is what will get your mother and your grandmother to have bitcoin in their wallets that's right i mean i mean i love michael saylor and his interview has been amazing and he's on real vision but he speaks in a term that no corporate treasurer understands they want to hear about hornet's nest or anything else they want to hear about diversification of portfolio returns and stuff like that so to your point look i i've started an insurance company that's doing a bunch of um very very uh esoteric exotic insurance policies and you know one of the interesting things that i've learned with my co-founder my partner in this he's the ceo i'm just a chairman but is how many of these corporations view their balance sheets and you know how they're buying all kinds of esoteric insurance and the instant thing probably that pops to the top of my head is wow these guys should also own bitcoin as something like that if they're going to own cat bonds and they're going to own business interruption risk insurance and all kinds of you know hedges on pmi my gosh why don't they own some bitcoin well it's because the presentation of that idea is done in such in such a way where they're forced to make a leap too far and because if you if you decompose what the treasurer or the cfo is is how the lens in which they're making decisions it's just career risk right it's it's like it's that old adage it's just it's you're never going to get fired for buying ibm right and so you're never going to get fired for just having the money sit in a corporate account 0 with earning zero at jp morgan then you know pounding your fists on the table for bitcoin so what we need is again more pragmatism around what it is um i've i've always found the presentation of the idea as a deeply fundamentally uncorrelated hedge to the existing financial infrastructure to be kind of boring not that salacious but very pragmatic and effective yeah i mean um you know a lot of people want to get the institutions into the space and i keep explaining to people stop talking about libertarian philosophies and you know all of this stuff everybody in the asset allocation space the boring pension funds use something called barra b a double r a it's an allocation model you need to go and talk to them how it fits into the barrel model and they'll go oh perfect i speak by trustees it's as simple as that well if you're running a stable coin or you know smart contracts on top of ethereum all of this next generation infrastructure i mean this is t plus zoom right you're settling things in analysis and that's really good for everybody which coins if you will cryptocurrencies digital assets are are you a holder of are you a believer in well i will be publishing this soon i am building a fairly sizable portfolio of what are called uh nfts uh non-fungible tokens some digital art um some you know virtual trading cards and these may sound crazy to some but i do think that that's the next frontier digital currency and digital assets and so i have been building a portfolio my decision is the team and i will announce it we will publicize everything we own and we will make our holdings transparent so that folks can travel on and see as we buy and sell these so that that's coming in a few months i'm not really ready to show the details of exactly what we hold yet but i'm really excited maybe in a few weeks actually but i'm very excited we're almost ready you
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