저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 기관 수요 확대로 비트코인 가격이 크게 오를 것이라고 보며, 특히 ETF 승인 전까지는 시가총액을 대폭 키워야 한다고 주장. 기업 현금 편입: 마이크로스트래티지가 보유 현금 전부를 비트코인으로 전환했고, 스퀘어는 자산의 5%를 비트코인에 배분했다고 언급. 페이팔·캐시앱 등 주요 핀테크 플랫폼이 비트코인 매매를 지원하며 기업 채택이 예상보다 빠르게 진행 중이라고 평가. S&P500 기업 1%가 현금을 비트코인에 넣으면 가격이 약 40,000달러 상승, 10%면 약 400,000달러 상승 가능하다는 시나리오 제시 (당시 가격 약 30,000달러 기준). 규제 환경: OCC가 연방 인가 은행의 비트코인 수탁을 허용했고, 최근 은행이 퍼블릭 블록체인의 노드가 되는 것도 허용해 예상보다 빠른 진행이라고 평가. 피델리티 등 인프라 구축이 진행 중이며 ICE, CME 등 거래소 인프라도 준비되는 중. 자산군 분석: 비트코인은 주요 자산군 대비 상관관계가 가장 낮다는 분석 제시. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션상 기관 참여 시 변동성 최소화 기준 약 200,000달러, 샤프비율 극대화 기준 약 500,000달러까지 가능하다고 주장. ETF 전망: SEC가 아직 신중하나 신임 위원장 게리 겐슬러는 MIT 재직 경력 등으로 비트코인에 우호적이라고 평가. 단기 걸림돌은 시가총액 약 6,000억 달러로 대형주 하나 수준인 점이며, ETF 승인 전 약 1~2조 달러 규모가 되어야 한다는 견해. GBTC는 ETF는 아니지만 2015년부터 40법 펀드를 통한 비트코인 노출 수단으로 활용됨. 리스크/조건: 규제 승인 지연, 시장 규모 확대 필요성, 기관 수요 충족 전까지 불확실성 존재. 출연자는 추가로 사모펀드 등 다양한 상품 진화를 전망. 가격 방향 예측 요약: 1~3개월 단기 목표가는 명시되지 않았으나 장기적으로 상승 전망 우세.
다듬은 글
uh bitcoin more in the fintech realm uh we are seeing corporations we didn't expect this we expected institutional interest but we didn't expect uh corporations to substitute bitcoin for cash microstrategy was the first all of its cash is now in bitcoin and it in fact it did an offering so that it could buy more bitcoin um it is a technology company uh i'm a little uh suspicious i don't know what the sec is going to do with this because this is not its base business this is its cash um square has put five percent of its assets into bitcoin and um and we're seeing uh more mature companies like paypal enabling the buying and selling of bitcoin on its platform as cash app does as well well if uh if companies in uh the s p 500 were to uh were to put one percent of their uh cash into uh into bitcoin uh that would be that would incre increase the price of bitcoin uh by 40 000 today it's close to 30 000 so that's more than a double right there if if we saw 10 of course that would add 400 000 and i just told you microstrategy has put all of its cash in perhaps emerging markets uh will will be faster in terms of adoption but we have been very surprised at how quickly this has uh happened in the united states institutions are going to have a significant impact on on bitcoin's price we're seeing all kinds of evidence uh today i just gave you some about corporate cash uh but we have the occ uh before brian brooks departed uh in last july uh they allowed uh custody uh banks to um federally chartered banks to custody bitcoin uh and just uh within the last month they have allowed banks uh to actually become nodes on any uh public blockchain so that they can enable much less expensive and efficient settlement uh so so that is uh that is uh again a little faster than we would have expected we've seen fidelity the infrastructure has certainly been moving into place for a while fidelity um the uh intercontinental ice the the uh intercontinental exchange uh the cme and uh cambridge uh the the consultant wrote a paper about it was a little more than a year ago uh basically telling institutions hey this could be a new asset class and it has a very low correlation in fact it has the lowest correlation if you compare uh bitcoin with all the other major asset classes out there it has the lowest correlations of any other combination so we believe that uh here you can see that if we're if we're if our analysis on how institutions will look at allocating to this space is correct uh and this is using a monte carlo uh uh simulation uh institutional involvement could increase uh the the price of bitcoin again it's 30 000 now by 200 000 if they want to minimize volatility to uh 500 000 if they want to maximize their sharp ratios so quite a bit of work we yasin almandra our analyst has two white papers and i should mention all of our analysts have white papers more extensive white papers on our site and most of these topics um kathy can i ask you a quick question so because we've done a lot of an analysis on bitcoin among financial advisors and their clients and the clients are talking about it advisors are talking about it do you think based on your analysis of bitcoin that eventually it makes it to uh clients of financial advisors is that going to be in the form of a bitcoin etf is it going to be in the form of something like uh grayscale or will it be in the form of investing in an active fund or an active etf like arc or we know guggenheim just got a mandate that they can allocate as well where do you think um that the allocation for our clients will come from in the form of bitcoin well we still think i i know that the etf question is still out there uh and uh we're we still think the sec is reticent although i will say the new sec chairman gensler uh he spent time at mit uh between his stints in the government and is very pro bitcoin interestingly and so he understands it more i think the the the show stopper short term is bitcoin if you look at its market cap it's 600 billion dollars that's like one large cap stock so i think that what we need is for a more equivalent of market cap or network value in bitcoin and then the sec will be much more friendly to it the other interesting thing that's happened at the sec is the head of the sec's crypto research division has been promoted to report directly to the chairman uh so i think we're going to see a lot first of all there's more understanding uh i think once i'm not gonna pick a number but i believe it'll have to get uh well past a trillion dollars uh because an etf you know the the the flood can has to be satisfied the flood of demand has to be satisfied so it's going to have to get well over a trillion dollars two trillion dollars i think before uh the sec will feel comfortable about an etf um but in terms of other funds they may be more open funds that can close that don't have to buy mutual funds don't have to buy they can allocate elsewhere if they get flows so it may happen it may be that mutual funds might get uh first dibs there in the meantime gbtc uh it's not an etf it is a great it's a it's a grantor the underlying is a grantor trust that seems to be uh the way that 40 act funds have that's how we have gained exposure to bitcoin since 2015.
uh but i do think there is going to be there are going to be a lot more alternatives that are less expensive uh and i i know of some private funds that are less expensive than uh gbtc uh they're more like vc funds now that will ultimately turn into hedge funds maybe take care down the line so there are all kinds of uh rappers evolving i think for for crypto you
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