저자: PeterLynch강연인용—채널진행자BaldInvestor소속 · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치의 1994년 내셔널프레스클럽 강연을 소개하며, 주식 투자의 핵심은 '내가 무엇을 소유하는지 아는 것'이라고 강조하는 영상. 린치는 주식을 보유하는 이유를 10살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명하지 못하면 보유하지 말아야 한다고 말하며, 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 일부라는 점을 강조한다. 주식시장, 금리, 경기를 예측하는 것은 불가능하며 경기 예측에 쓰는 시간은 낭비라고 지적한다. 이 주장은 시장 타이밍 대신 기업 이해에 집중하라는 메시지로 이어진다. 시장은 1년에 한 번꼴로 10% 이상, 약 6년에 한 번꼴로 25% 이상 하락해 왔으므로 하락은 불가피하며, 이를 기회로 활용하려면 기업을 이해하고 있어야 한다고 말한다. 부채가 없는 기업이 더 안전하다는 점도 언급되며, 진행자는 기업 부채를 확인하는 습관을 강조한다. 린치는 투자에서 가장 중요한 장기는 위(stomach)이며 공포와 탐욕을 통제하는 것이 핵심이라고 결론짓는다. 진행자는 린치의 원칙을 요약하며 시청자에게 좋아요와 구독을 요청한다.
다듬은 글
A long time ago, I found a video on YouTube that was one of the reasons I got interested in value investing. The video was a lecture of Peter Lynch, and today I want to go through the most important takeaways that really changed the way I look at the stock market. And I hope that the ideas that Peter Lynch is talking about will also help you on your journey as an investor.
But first, who is Peter Lynch? Well, he is an American investor, and as a manager of Magellan funds at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual return, consistently more than double the S&P 500 stock market index. During his 13 years at Magellan, assets under management increased from $18 million to $14 billion.
Lynch wrote a number of books and papers on investing strategies, including One Up on Wall Street, and it sold over 1 million copies. And it it is a very good book about investing, and if you intend to buy it, you can use an affiliate link in the description, and this way you can support the channel with no extra cost to you.
Or you can press the like button and subscribe, and that is also a great help. But, back to Peter Lynch. I really like the fact that he was also a great investor for his family. He invested a total of $3,750 in his wife's retirement plan, and through the years they withdrawn $3 million for personal expenses, and when his wife passed away in 2014, the account was worth $8 million.
So, $3,750 into 11 million. With the most conservative assumptions, the rate of return would have been around 22%. And I think that shows that the man knows a thing or two about investing and compounding. During the lecture for National Press Club in 1994, Peter Lynch made some great points about investing and about the stock market.
So, let's go through the most important ones. The single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own. I'm amazed how many people own stocks. They They would not be able to tell you why they own it. They couldn't say in a minute or less why they own it. Actually, if you really press them down, they'd say, "The reason I own this is the sucker's going up." And that's the only reason.
That's the only reason they own it. And if you can't explain, I'm serious, you can't explain to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less why you own a stock, you shouldn't own it. This is so true. He is basically talking about a circle of competence. And it is extremely important because when the stock is going up, we all feel that we are very smart because the market agrees with us.
But when the stock is going down, the market is saying that we are wrong. And to stay invested, we have to have a strong foundation, not just a belief, but a real knowledge that lets us say that we are right about this company and the market is wrong. If we don't know what we own, if we don't understand the business, then we do not have the advantage over the market.
Stocks are not lottery tickets. There's a company behind every stock. If the company does well, the stock does well. It's not that complicated. People get too carried away. And first of all, they try and predict the stock market. That is a total waste of time. No one can predict the stock market. They try and predict interest rates.
I mean, this is a If anybody predict interest rates right three times in a row, they'd be a billionaire. Considering there's not that many billionaires on the planet, it's very you know, I took I had logic so I had a syllogism in study these when I was at Boston College. There can't be that many people who can predict interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires.
And no one can predict the economy. I know a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and 82 when we had a 20% prime rate, with double-digit inflation, double-digit uh unemployment. I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it. I didn't read I studied all this stuff. I don't remember anybody telling me we're going to have the worst recession since the depression.
So, what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market's going to do. It'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average a year from now would be X, that we're going to have a full-scale recession, or interest rates are going to be 12%. That's useful stuff. You never know it, though.
You just don't get to learn it. So, I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes. And I I I really believe that. This is one of the key points in thinking about investing for me. If you just concentrate on the company and do not treat it as a lottery ticket, but as a business that you are a co-owner of, then you do not have to worry so much about the economy in the broader scale.
And it also saves you from a big mistake, which is believing that you know when to sell and when to buy. If the best professionals with the best equipment and data can't do it, then most probably we can't either. What you learn from history is the market goes down. It goes down a lot. The math is simple.
There's been 93 years this century. This is easy to do. The market's had 50 declines of 10% or more. So, 50 declines in 93 years, about once every 2 years the market falls 10%. We call that a correction. That means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly, but we We call it a correction and uh uh so, 50 declines in 93 years about once every 2 years the market falls 10%.
Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 25% or more. And that's known as a bear market. We've had 15 declines in 93 years. So, every 6 years the market's going to have a 25% decline. That's all you need to know. You need to know the market's going to go down sometime. If you're not ready for that, you shouldn't own stocks.
And it's good when it happens. If you like a stock at 14 and it goes to 6, that's great. You understand the company, you look at the balance sheet, and they're doing fine. You're hoping to get to 22 with it. 14 to 22 is terrific. 6 to 22 is exceptional. So, you take advantage of these declines. They're going to happen.
No one knows when they're going to happen. It would be very People tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it, but they predicted it 53 times. And uh So, you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own. This is something that changes the whole game of investing.
If you do not know what you own, and you treat stocks like lottery tickets, then every time the market goes down, you lose. But, if you understand the company you own, then every time the price goes down, you are like a kid in a toy store with sale written everywhere. But, we have to be prepared and ready for those drops because they are going to happen.
And then, we can see what we are made of. Do we have the nerves to be investors and not just speculators? Now, I learned this very early. This is might be a breakthrough for some people. It's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt. It's It's tricky. Some people can approach that. It's a It's a real achievement.
They had no debt. And the whole company at three was selling it about 75 million. At that point, it was equal to buying one Boeing 747. I said, "There's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million." I was a little premature at 16, but uh I said, "Everything's fine, and eventually this will work out." And they What they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders.
They They passed out shares in Kaiser Cement. They passed out shares in Kaiser Aluminum. They passed out their public shares in Kaiser Steel. They sold all the other businesses. And you get about $50 a share. And but if you didn't understand the company, if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16, and then it went to 10, what would you do when it went to nine?
What would you do when it went to eight? What would you do when it went to seven? This is the problem that people have. Is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it. Then it went down, and they don't know what to do now. Do you flip a coin? Do you walk around the block? You know, what do you do?
This is one of the reasons I always check the debt of the companies when I analyze them on this channel. If we have a company with no debt, or with a debt that they can pay in a matter of months, then we know that it is a much safer investment than with a fast-growing company that has a ton of debt.
And the other thing that Peter Lynch talks about in this clip is again the emphasis on understanding the business we own. And he comes back to that a lot in his speech. So, it is obvious that knowing what you own is the most important lesson he wants us to learn. There's always something to worry about.
And the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach. It's not the brain. If you can add eight and eight and get reasonably close to 16, that's the only level of math you need to know. You don't know to need the area under the curve. Remember that quadratic equation and an integral calculus and the area under the curve.
I mean, whoever cared was under the damn curve. I mean, you know. But you had to study this. You don't need this in the stock market. So, all you have to know is you're going to see it It's always going to be scary. There's going to be always something to worry about. You just have to forget all about it.
Cut it all out and own good companies or own turnarounds. Study them and you'll do well. And that's all there is. And I've I'm ready for questions. Okay. Thank you very much. I think it is a very important remark at the end of his lecture that we have to analyze the company. We have to understand it.
But at the end of the day, it is about our nerves that have to be controlled so that we would not make a silly decision because of fear or because of greed. If we just remember these few fundamentals, then we already have an advantage. Okay, that's it for today. I hope you found this video inspiring and informative.
And if so, then please consider pressing the like button and subscribing to the channel if you haven't already. Thanks for watching and see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
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