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Bill Ackman - Super Investor Is Underperforming the Market

Victor H Investing · 2025-05-20 · 유튜브 시청 244 · Board Views 8 · International

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Welcome back to my channel. I wanted to cover another super investor, Bill Oman, and this is a portfolio update. I've covered him before and have shared how he is one of the more famous investors, very well-known and respected. He has some big wins and he has some losses. More recently, he invested in Uber, which was a really good idea, and the stock's really up this year.

But a couple of his losses include Nike where he bet that Nike was going to really rebound and it hasn't done so. He ended up selling out of his position. And then last year Netflix, he went into that position with a lot of press and then abandoned the position before Netflix went on a real big rise.

So that position itself was a a loser in two ways. he lost money and he abandoned the stock before it took off. And now from that point, Netflix is up 400% or so. So, he really missed out on a big gain there. Nonetheless, there's a lot of lessons to be had by studying Bill Oman. He has a concentrated portfolio, really invest a lot of money across maybe 15 stocks or less.

And I'd like to study the changes he's made to his portfolio in the middle of 2025 and see if we can get an edge maybe on one or two more investments or maybe get out of a stock that he has gotten out of. Let's take a close look at Bill Oman and his portfolio. Here are the stocks in the portfolio that Bill Omanages.

We'll start off with Uber, which is his biggest percentage holding in his portfolio, and it's a new holding. He bought 30 million shares. That is a big bet. And he's probably glad he did so because in short time he's up almost 27%. He's made 500 and almost 94 million on that one stock. Good for him.

That is great. His three biggest positions, next one is Brookfield, and that one is 18% of his portfolio. He's up modestly there. 3.34 making about $109 million on that position. Restaurant Brands is about 12.85 of his portfolio and that's up nicely up almost 9.5. Howard Hughes he I think wants to establish almost a another Birkshire Hathway by acquiring most of Howard Hughes.

And that one there isn't working out for him this year. It's a pretty substantial loser. 132 million yearto date in losses. Chipotle, another loser. Um, it's I just don't like restaurant stocks, but he saw something in Chipotle. Maybe the departure of the CEO combined with the fact that gez, you know, you got to sell a lot of burritos to uh keep growing the company.

Just a tough business. So, he lost some money there. I wonder he might get out of that position soon, I imagine. Then he's got a railroad with the Canadian Pacific uh Kansas City line which looks pretty good for the year. 12.77. That is a little bit of a surprise since we have all these tariffs. I would think that maybe the amount of rail that was being shipped may have gone down.

Now these two positions here, this is really his his third biggest position is Google Alphabet because he owns uh symbol G O G and G O G L. If you combine the two, we're up there at 14%. So it would actually be the third biggest position. And that one there he's not doing all that great on. And I feel his pain because that is a big position of mine.

And that one there is a loser for him. The next investment is Hilton. And it'll be interesting to see how travel uh goes for the rest of the year. I think travel is going to have a hard time if we have a recession. And overall, I think things are really slowing down. So, we'll see how Hilton does. Seapport Entertainment is the next stock and this one isn't doing very well.

I think this one might be the worst percentage loser in the portfolio. And uh not a big position, but it's still a big percentage loser. Hertz is a big percentage winner, but a very small position. So although it's 83% to the upside, it's a $45 million win when uh Uber is much better than that because it's such a big position.

And the biggest money loser for him is um Nike. And Nike is a position he took on. I think there was a rebound uh expected and the reality is it didn't happen and I don't know that Nike is going to make it out of the woods. Just the tariff war, a lot of things going on, the recession, all things point against Nike and he lost a substantial amount.

I think this was the biggest money loser that he had in his portfolio. $228.7 million loss. So that was the biggest one. collectively all the portfolio it's up 97% almost 1% um to the upside the S&P is up 1.5% so now I'm not measuring his portfolio probably perfectly but it's really looking at the major stock holdings for the biggest periods that he's holding them for example Uber he bought uh in Q2 so I'm measuring just Q2 performance for Uber and he sold Nike at the end of Q1.

So, I took that one out and it's not included in the Q2 gain or loss. So, I think um reasonably close and he is lagging the S&P if you measure the S&P from a year-to- date perspective. Looking at Bill Oman's performance compared to his super investor peers, he's in 10th place um based on the 16 super investors that I track.

He's uh ahead of Warren Buffett and David Einhorn and he's behind Kathy Wood and Rob Vinol and he's well behind the leaders which are David Ter, Michael Bur who are really having good years. So it's interesting to see a super investor as intelligent and has a resources like Bill Oman not beat the S&P and you consider if an investor goes and invests in Persing Square that N7 is the performance of the portfolio then you have to pay the management fees.

So that might be I don't know 1%. So an investor might just be breaking even if you look at high level the portfolio and what it's been doing. So I would be less than satisfied based on that type of performance. Lessons learned from Bill Oman is the Uber trade was real positive for his portfolio. I'm really glad I've owned Uber for well over two years and it's really doing well for my portfolio.

I continue to buy into Uber on those big dips when everybody was doubting Uber that hey robo taxi is going to come in and replace Uber. I thought, you know, that's just silly. I think Uber, their network power, their growth, it's there. And uh it's good to see Bill Oman and other investors buy into Uber.

Second lesson is Bill Oman has chased some comeback stories. Nike Netflix. Nike, he isn't in it to see the stock come back, which is interesting. He took the loss on Netflix. He didn't stick around to see the rebound. He abandoned the position once it was negative. And it might be that he's just trying to groom his portfolio to show that, hey, he got out of a loser, gets it off the books, and can kind of show a better weekby- week performance.

I don't know. You'd have to ask Bill Oman. But those two positions um teaches me that if I really believe in a company, I should stick to that company if the fundamentals support my story. Netflix, I invested around the same time as Bill Oman and I stuck it out and I made good money on Netflix. I ended up selling and made good money on Netflix.

I never really invested in Nike. I invested for a short period of time and then got out. I just got concerned with the stock and got out before it was damaging to my portfolio. I think I made a little bit of money because Nike's just been so beat up. So, lessons learned. Um, you know, investing is difficult.

It's even difficult for the super investors. And, uh, it's good to see that, you know, Aman's in some stocks that I'm into. Um, we'll see if he sticks it out on Google Alphabet. I don't see why he wouldn't stick it out, but who knows? Maybe he'll sell out of that one, too. So, that's my video on Bill Oman.

I hope you found it interesting. Let me know what you think of Bill Oman and uh, put it in the comments. I'd really like to understand what you think and uh, I appreciate you watching the video. What I would also appreciate is your support of the channel. in order to cover all the costs and so forth of running a YouTube channel.

I have a paid member program and I've got a good number of paid members. I really appreciate their support and you can be a member as well. You'll also get really good perks like getting access to tools that I use to analyze stocks, member only videos, and member only calls. Take a look at the details of this video and you'll see more details on the uh channel membership program.

You could also download my mobile app. There'll be a link on the description of the video. You can download my mobile app and see a very simplified way of looking at stocks, screening stocks, and getting ideas on stocks that you can consider investing in. Take a look. I really appreciate you watching the video and let me wish you the best of success in your investments.

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