저자: VictorHInvesting · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴은 연초 대비 약 30% 하락했으나 PER 77, 매출 대비 주가 높음 등으로 고평가 상태다. 현금흐름 기반 내재가치는 주당 약 117달러로 주가보다 낮다고 계산했고, 주가가 약 28~47% 고평가라고 주장한다. 과거 대비 성장은 VMware 인수효과를 빼면 둔화되며 매출 성장은 10%대로 예상된다. 반도체 업황 조정과 기술 수명 주기 위험도 언급했다. 결론은 매도(지금 다시 팔겠다)이며, 나중에 내재가치 아래로 떨어지면 매수 고려 가능성을 열어둔다. 재진입 시점은 단기 하락 모멘텀 이후를 전제로 한다.
다듬은 글
Broadcom. Broadcom is a big semiconductor company that has seen its stock really rise over the last couple of years. But more recently, the stocks really been dropping. It's down almost 30% year-to date, and it's having a very bad day today. What's the future hold for Broadcom in 2025? That's what I'm going to answer in this video.
Is this stock now at a discount and maybe a good buy or is it still overpriced and it's going to continue to crash down? Let's take a look. The stock has flourished over the last five years. It's up 514%. And owning the stock, especially acquiring it in late 2022, is just a really good move. You you're really up substantially over the last couple of years.
I own the stock. I picked it up. Felt that it was a good buy. um and saw the stock really ride up, but I sold it in mid 2024 feeling that you know what, the stock's really gotten me a great return and I'm going to get out of the stock. And I felt like I I felt that I had missed a good part of the runup toward the end of the year.
It really just took off, but it's really come down substantially. It's really come down. So, is it a time to take a look at the stock and maybe it's below its intrinsic value or is it above that intrinsic value? As you likely know, if you've watched my videos, I measure a company's value based on the cash flows the company's going to produce in the future.
Discount those cash flows to today's value. That is the intrinsic value of a business. How much cash are you going to put on that balance sheet, return it to shareholders as buybacks or dividends, or just have that cash there ready to acquire other businesses? So, I'll do that for Broadcom. I'm going to complete that valuation.
And I'm also going to look at their earnings per share and see how earnings per share. Look for Broadcom and what the value of the company is based on that criteria. Broadcom has become a very large cap company, 765 billion as a pure play semiconductor company. It's second to Nvidia. Its revenue is 54 billion.
So investors are having to pay more than 10 times revenue for the company. That's a red flag. This is a semiconductor company. Semiconductor companies will have years of boom and then some pullbacks meaning the revenue goes down and I'll show that in the data. So if an investor in this case here would have to pay upwards of 16 17 times sales that is a red flag.
A PE ratio of 77 another red flag that is a very high PE. analysts have been in love with some of these darlings like Nvidia and Broadcom and it looks like they're still their ratings are still fairly high. So, we'll test that. Looking at their revenue, they have been growing the revenues. Now, what should not be confused is Broadcom acquired another business VMware and the big step up in revenue growth is partially because of that big acquisition.
So be mindful that organic growth is better than acquisitive growth. In the case here, just be aware there was an acquisition that occurred that made that revenue really jump up. Overall, the reason I bought Broadcom and held it is that it's a cash generator and that cash generation looks really good.
But will it substantiate the price? I will use this cash flow and I'll determine the intrinsic value of the company. good margins from the company, 75%. Big reason for that is they they're a fabulous semiconductor company. They didn't invest in a foundry to manufacture the chips that they they design.
They actually go to TSM and have their chips produced and then they just get to keep a very large margin. And I like that about these types of semiconductor companies. So the fundamentals look good, but the cost of the company is very high. PE ratio is really high, the price to sales is really high.
And if we look at what analysts are thinking, 25 analysts cover the stock. There are some analysts that are um a little pessimistic. They believe that the stock is only worth $170, but some analysts are really reaching for the sky at $300. The earnings per share do look good. They are enjoying good growth, but you see the sustained growth here.
This is where we really should be measuring the growth of the company. This is comparing a full company with VMware, you know, year-over-year, not having the step up year that they saw in 24 where you had just a big acquisition make the revenue look like it was growing really fast. So, that looks good.
From a revenue perspective, it looks like they're going to have some good years going forward. Earnings per share also is looks looks good. their revenue really, excuse me, profit really increased, which looks good. I'll use those numbers for earnings per share. One item that I want to take a peek at is their balance sheet.
See how much debt they have because they did take on a substantial amount of debt when they acquired VMware. And they currently sit with a debt to IBIDA 2.29. So debt is not a problem. They should be able to pay off debt since it's less than three debt to IBIDA. So, I've taken the free cash flows from Broadcom and have created a cash forecast for the company starting with the trailing 12 months plus growth rate of 10%.
As I showed, the revenue is only going to grow in the teens going forward. It's not going to stay on that 40% growth rate, which was really the step up because of the VMware acquisition. So, based on those growth rates, this is the free cash flow forecast that I have for them. Then terminal value, I'll grow at 4%.
I'm going to discount by 9% since we are dealing with a risky area around that data center. The data center has been receiving a lot of funds and capital, but I think it's really gotten risky in my opinion. You're seeing the big pullback in Nvidia TSM. I think the street is acknowledging that times are not going to remain that good for the semiconductor space.
I think it's really going to pull back. When I use that discount rate using the free cash flows for the company, I get a present value of all those cash flows of 463 billion. I add cash but take away debt. So I get to $44 billion of equity value, which is well below their market cap of $755 billion.
So the stock based on the intrinsic value of free cash flows that we have for the company is 47% too high. the stock price is priced 47% too high. Earnings per share will get us to that stock price because it has a good earnings per share. But earnings per share is not the principal valuation method for my investing.
My investing principally uh uses free cash flows intrinsic value and I blend these two but I only use onethird of the blend is the earnings per share value. So, I think that Broadcom is 28% too high. The stock is 28% too high. And really, the intrinsic value is $117 per share. I'm the type of investor that wants to buy stocks when they're priced below their intrinsic value based on cash flows and earnings per share.
And for a long time, the Broadcom stock was trading below that line. But probably in the 2024 time frame, it eclipsed that and started trading well above it intrinsic value. Now it's coming back down and it's coming back down much closer to that intrinsic value. The way markets behave, it's probably going to have downside momentum and at some point in the future again trade below intrinsic value and at the right time I may consider buying into Broadcom.
But for now this is absolutely a sell. I sold it before. If I had it in my portfolio, I would sell it again. It's just really who wants to catch this falling knife. It's come down hard and it's going to continue to come down. Fundamentals are not going to rescue the Broadcom stock price. Really, the momentum of the market is clear.
It was overpriced to begin with and now the market will correct it and probably overcorrect it by a measure of maybe 10, 20, 30%. We'll see. Broadcom as a business is a desirable business and overall I put this business mostly in my most desirable quadrant which is where a business has a strong moat.
They have good patents on their technology. They have high profits but I do put the broadcom business slightly in the gray. Why why do I do that is technology the lifespan of technology products is rather short. You have to continue to just reinvent yourself by putting out the best technology. Nvidia is a good example.
The GPU market three years ago wasn't all that uh great, but now the GPU market is flourishing very quickly. Things changed in the high performance computing market. Same thing can happen and Broadcom can find themselves on the losing end of innovations. Maybe a company out there disrupts their technologies and companies like Apple or other hardware producers pick other companies to develop on.
So that's my video on Broadcom. It really is interesting to see how stocks have really gone up so much in 2023 2024 are and now are crashing down quite violently and Broadcom's an example of that. It's really fun to be a spectator and I'm glad I don't own this stock because it'd probably be brutal to sit there and watch my stock go down knowing that it's priced too expensively.
I'd love to hear your opinion on Broadcom. Please add that to the chat. Love to hear your comments. I appreciate you watching. If you like content like this, consider being a paid member. You'll be able to use the tools that I'm using. I'll provide a directory where you can download those tools. You also get a reference library of the valuations that I complete.
For example, Broadcom, you'd be able to see that anytime by referencing that library of valuations that I give access to members. And you can also attend member onlyly calls and on live streams, you'll be able to nominate uh stock tickers for me to evaluate on live streams. So, please consider it. I would really appreciate your support.
So, that's it for my video. Thank you so much for watching and good luck with your investments.
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