저자: Andy · 외국인
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Andy는 'PREPAREDNESS not PREDICTION' 주제로, 예측보다 저평가 자산을 미리 준비해 두는 투자 태도가 중요하다고 강조한다. 거시 예측 발언: Bill Miller 인용을 통해 장단기 금리 역전(inverted yield curve)이 경기침체와 직접 연결되지 않으며, 채권시장이 중립금리가 낮아질 것이라 기대하는 신호일 뿐이라고 설명한다. 주택건설사·모기지금리·주택수요를 더 중요한 선행지표로 본다. 우라늄 관련: Justin H 인용으로 유틸리티들의 우라늄 공급 부족 대응 시나리오를 소개하고, NexGen의 Arrow 프로젝트가 공급 부족 해소의 핵심이라고 언급한다. 다만 캐나다 대법원이 Saskatchewan 정부의 MNS(Mediis Nation) 협의 미흡 판결을 내려 Arrow 프로젝트가 지연될 수 있고 우라늄 가격 상승 요인이 될 수 있다고 본다. 기타: 은(Silver)/S&P500 비율 차트 상 돌파 가능성, 주택담보대출 연체율은 2008년 수준에 못 미친다는 데이터 소개. 투자 태도: 장기 투자자로서 시장 타이밍보다 시간(time in market)이 중요하며, 저평가 자산을 발굴하고 센티먼트가 부정적일 때 매수하는 것이 좋다고 밝힌다. 소형주와 저밸류에이션 증권에 대한 관심도 언급한다. 최종적으로 일부 섹터에 대해 단기 매도세는 있으나 위험 대비 수익 기회가 있다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
everyone hope you're having a good day my name's Andy my channel is finding value uh today we're going to go through Twitter see what people are sharing on social media I'll interject my financial opinions as I go through it uh generally related to three different topics wealth building Commodities Andor Financial topics so we're going to Dive Right In take a look see what people are sharing and if you want to find me on Twitter it's fincor finance and you can join our community finding hiend val.com where I dive deeper into all of these topics looking for potential investment opportunities and sharing those opportunities with everyone in the community and obviously letting you guys know why I like them or not uh we recently just had a Q&A session where we went through some of the conference calls of what I thought were some of the highlights in some of the calls that I listened to so you guys can stay up to date and you don't have to go through all the conference calls yourself uh if you want to join we do have a coupon code special which is the coupon code if you'd like to uh join is 50% off the monthly membership and a larger discount on the yearly membership and you can always swap from a monthly to a yearly if you're interested we're going to start with some quotes here uh invest in preparedness not in prediction says Nim and I know a lot of people on YouTube are making a lot of predictions they make a prediction uh and have a price Target my price Target is $6,500 s&p500 uh this year it's going to be over $40 an ounce of silver by X date um that's not necessarily how you make money in the market um what a lot of successful investors who haven't lost their ass what they do is they buy things that are cheap and are undervalued then they wait for the market conditions to come back into cycle and then they uh when that cycle comes back into play the Investments that they made go from undervalued to fairly or overvalued sometimes those investors will sell it when it's overvalued other times they'll just ride it through a bunch of different Cycles as long as the long-term prospects of the company look good and the fundamentals of the company and business look really good so the the really good investors they don't focus on predictions they focus on preparedness and being ready to buy when things are cheap Charlie M says opportunity comes to the prepared mind opportunity comes to the prepared mind here's one from Warren Buffett he says we derive no Comfort because import important people vocal people or great numbers of people agree with us nor do we derive Comfort if they don't a public opinion poll is no substitute for Thought um I completely agree 100% completely agree oftentimes I think different than a lot of other people right wrong or indifferent um I might have different reasons different approach uh different ways of looking at problems and solving problems and sometimes the best question sometimes is do do we even need to solve the problem um and at work there was all these it's like they put up walls and try to climb over walls constantly and they're like how the heck do you get this all done so fast I said well I don't climb any of the walls I just go around them like there's no point in climbing these walls guys 's no point you can just go right around it and some of these things aren't even problems like you're worrying about things that aren't problems uh so yeah I I you know I I I was in a trading session I me just to give you guys an example I was in a trading session and we we were going through this activity where you're supposed to rank these items uh of their usefulness after a plane crash and there's a bunch of things like a mirror um a gun salt water stuff like that parachute and I I ranked him and what the way that I ranked them my strategy and I I'm not a Survivor I didn't go through Cub Scouts or anything like that I just said well you know I'm not going to be walking any sort of distance in the desert because it was in the desert so I just did everything based off of how to flag someone down so like a mirror there was a coat and and some other things I was like well you could protect yourself from the Sun use it for shade you know there's all these different things and uh we we went individually we went groups it's supposed to be lower in groups but um I actually ended up at the lowest score even better than all of the groups in the class not trying to brag I just there's part luck to it too but even even when you go in groups and try to get the public opinion poll it it doesn't necessarily mean that having more Minds is better uh you want the right Minds with the right skill sets and the right way to approach problems here's Logan Logan says reading is essential the history of human civilization demonstrates that those who can read and write always have an advantage over those who cannot the anti- Central Bank movement originated from a cult-like mindset read books don't burn them total balance by delinquency status is super low it's barely climbing and this is single family residents loan delinquency rate is now higher than that of 2008 real estate crash has begun but it hasn't because these people are stupid they're like they have no idea what they're looking at this is the data here it's not anywhere near 2008 or n i close uranium Insider let's talk uranium um so Justin H says I can tell you with the straight face that many utilities when prompted about their concern or lack thereof about a future uranium shortage believe of one of two things eventually sput pounds will shake out or Arrow will be producing almost 30 million pounds per year three years from now concerning the supply deficit late decade early 2030s arrow is the Lynch pin yes CU Adam prom will ramp but six and seven from 35 million pounds this year to 15 million pounds per year by 2829 but half of that goes to Russia to fuel their massive export business the other half won't even buffer the Steep production decline of the majority of kap's remaining projects that start early 2030s back to Arrow it will be a mine but if history is any is any indicator optimistic timelines that only utilities believe will shock the industry and Supply story but should come as no surprise to investors if you model out an optimistic Supply scenario we have any delays in any projects especially Arrow will result in persisting deficits more valuable commercial inventories and much higher prices that is his opinion now there's something going on here I'm just going to touch on Arrow's um project here it says uranium commentary on the Supreme Court ruling against the skatan government in favor of the M Med mostly AI analysis I guess this is a indigenous group nextgen's uranium future is in doubt Court ruling threatens delays and price spikes so February 28th 25 the Supreme Court of Canada ruled against Saskatchewan letting medis Nation Saskatchewan MNS challenge nextgen's Energy's 2021 uranium permits MNS says the province didn't consult them properly about nextgen's Rook one project in Northwest Saskatchewan this decision could delay the mine rattle nextgen's finances and push uranium prices up here's at what's stake the the ruling a win for indigenous rights so there's something going on I'm not going to go through all of this and jump into each item but right now uh there might not be a clear path for nextg to produce uh quickly there might be some resistance between producing from these assets uh and maybe some litigation here going on Charlie Munger here's another quote says figure out what you don't want and avoid it and you'll get what you do want um there's a lot of Truth to that so you can look at a bunch of different sectors you can look at the companies you can look at how leveraged they are uh in terms of their balance sheets and then if you just pair down what you don't want a lot of it falls off the plate a lot of it there's a lot of crap out there guys there's a lot of crap and then you you you you kind of cut and dice the crap away and you look for let's say you're looking for infrastructure and and cash blow and all that stuff um you'll you'll be led to a few sectors in Commodities that are ridiculous Brandon Bao says silver investors focus on the long-term picture here silver to the S&P 500 ratio chart tells the story uh we're coiling up and potentially ready to break out where silver starts to perform the S&P 500 and this is s which is that's actually the S ETF s he says silver but I think that's an ETF um delinquency rate on single family mortgages okay I went over that before um there's something I want to read to everybody so this is the key to market returns is time and not timing uh this is by Bill Miller he is is a investor and he wrote this piece and I I kind of want to go over it um we were talking a little bit about it uh in the Q&A session so I kind of want to just go over this real quick um I'm going to read it obviously so Bill Miller uh recently discussed the state of the market offering insights into how the team thinks about opportunity this is a recap of the main points of that discussion so if you haven't read Bill Miller's uh quarter one quarter two letters it's a good place to start as a setup for recent comments on the market here so Bill makes the point that people have been expecting a bad macroeconomic environment and the main reason for that has been the inverted yield curve while an inverted yield curve has been villainized as a predictor for a recession bills suggests that investors take a closer look at understanding why the yield curve inverts and what it actually means so so he offers this there is no fundamental linkage between an inverted yield curve and a recession none whatsoever the only thing that an inverted yield curve means is that the bond Market's expectation for the so-called neutral rate of interest which is the rate of interest that the FED sets which will neither stimulate nor put downward pressure on the economy is lower than it is today he points out that the 5 a half% on the upper bound of the FED funds rate is significantly above where it has been for the past 20 years and that we're coming off a unique period in history where record amounts of money were printed stimulating the economy in a significant way def fense inflation goal continues to be 2% policy makers know more today than ever there will there will inevitably be panics in the future but the more we understand the system the better we are able to operate within it including managing interest rates one challenge to operating in markets is the vast amount of information where do investors Focus their attention their time right now many macro thinkers are focused on the inverted yield curve they aren't paying attention to other powerful signs in the markets like home builders breaking out strong mortgage rates and consumer demand for for new housing holy crap this guy must do exactly what I look at because those are the leading indicators home builders mortgage rates and consumer demand for new housing that's generally been the driver of these boom bus cycles and I'm surprised that bill Bill Miller knows exactly where the cycle is at so that's good he says the key to returns in the market is time not timing this is Central to our philosophy as long-term investors you have to not only believe this but also put it into practice to influence how you think about information let me read that one more time all right the key to returns in the market is time and not timing timing is what everyone is trying to do with a lot of the technical analysis now I do that to some degree on the long-term charting to find entry points but then I sit in it and I'm patient he says this is Central to our philosophy as long-term investors you have to not only believe this but also put it into practice to influence how you think about information we're not trying to predict where the economy is going and then look for bets within a forecast forecasts and predictions are too often wrong as Bill Miller states on the call a lot of people in the market try to use the economy and their view of the economy to determine where the market is going and that's exactly backwards because the economy does not predict the market the market predicts the economy the market is people who have real money at risk and the to uh the totality of that is how the market acts Bill explains that at MVP we are looking at what the market has already priced in we're trying to understand the expectations for the future cash flows of a business we're picking businesses to invest in that we believe will deliver over the long term so where does that leave us today we think small caps and lower valuation Securities are compelling Dan Lis gives evidence on the call here's the clip he says overall the takeaway from the call is that we see opportunities in this market and we are going to actively manage our portfolios to navigate a constantly changing environment our goal is to continue to offer not only compelling investment strategies that add value to our investors portfolio but also to share how we're thinking about the environment and why we are investing the way we do in the Q&A at the end of the call we received a question about the importance of management teams in a research process Bill explained that it's one of the most important things we consider we pay attention to what Management's saying and what they're thinking and whether or not they're actually acting in alignment with what they're saying and doing and whether or not that's actually generating true economic value for us the same goes for how we approach what we do for our investors and as the largest investors in our own strategies we hold ourselves accountable every day for our thoughts and actions as investment professionals and and I agree with that approach uh that's the approach that I have adopted um my Approach is taking long-term investment uh view finding things that are undervalued and then looking at those undervalued Investments to see what type of growth out in the future there is and if the market has in my opinion accurately looked at the future growth and is pricing it accurately the best time to buy is generally when sentiment is negative in your Investments um perhaps it's a Slowdown in the market and people are selling uh those shares because of a air pocket of a Slowdown and there are sectors that are doing that right right now that I think offer good uh risk reward opportunities and what I'm doing is in these Q&A conference calls I'm going over those opportunities with you guys and I'm showing you what I look for and why I think they're opportunities uh and why they might be getting sold off in the short term but that's where I'm going to end it guys that's what I've got for today give me a thumb up for the content subscribe to the channel subscribe to the website if You' like special coupon code and we'll see you guys next time this is finding value
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