저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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시장이 200일선 아래로 밀리는 조정 국면. 나스닥 상위 10개 종목이 지수의 50%를 차지하는 집중 상황에서 엔비디아·마이크로소프트·아마존·구글 등 대형주 다수가 200일선 하회. 200일선 붕괴 지속 여부가 중요하며, 'buy the dip' vs 'crash' 중 단정은 피함. 엘리엇파동 등 기법적 분석은 신뢰도 의문 제기. 100일선 상회 종목 비율은 SPX·다우 등 지수별로 상이하나 러셀2000·나스닥 비율 30%대로 낮아 경계 필요. 발언자는 가이드 준비(매수 목록 준비) 취지의 언급.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys tread Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and the market has a little bit of a rough week so we're going to take a look at some very interesting charts above the 200 moving average we're going to see is this a dip or is this a crash very scary crash which not scary it's a better opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price still hoping the video crashes here um so before we go on this is our poll boom yeah three options I just put this up like last night or this morning I can't remember last night 11 hours ago apparently yeah got a 98 responses in 11 hours dude like we're almost Mr Beast sized okay it's I if we would have had like a hundred we would have been Mr Beast right there we're so close darn it um so you have your buy the dip uh we will recover soon you have brace yourself cheaper prices on the way and uh the Matrix is real so who cares all right those are your three options yeah yeah I voted for BRAC yourself FYI just just so you know I voted for Matrix actually I didn't vote yet that's I haven't looked at it um if if you're like the rest of us and like subscribe to a bunch of random Financial content all over the Internet this has probably popped up in your feed the last few days um this is this is one of those like o oogy boogy scary things red circle and lines um this is this has comes from like Elliot wave analysis which is a a way of like interpreting Financial markets using like Fibonacci sequences and um I don't know this is more like a technical analysis kind of tool I mean certainly It looks interesting when we're we're out there you know nigh on a edge of a precipice if you will um but how how much this is like you know actually gon to predict the future yeah I don't know um we certainly have a few years there that are very scary to line up with so sure pay attention to it but you know if you look at the what's going into this there's a lot of lot of data there and I'm not sure you know if this has ever been backed up by like an actual you know you know kind of economic analysis in order to see if this is accurate prediction tool or if it's just like uh maybe could be sign who knows it's one of those where if it crashes then they'll be like I told you look at it yeah and then if it doesn't like 900 other indicators are like ah well just wait for the next one um but yeah I've seen this this has been across my feet like 30 times so yeah but we're going to look at more important things here which is oh where's mine hold on sorry there we go okay here's the cues all right now the two most important moving averages in my opinion are the 100 daily and the 200 daily that is this uh light blue line and gray dash line This is a 100 this is a 200 if you follow this channel I have multiple trades I do base off of bounces off of 200 and then we've also looked back like 30 years in the stock market on sentiment changes as it dips below the 200 if it sustains we've done that so many times so I'm not going to do this time um but they're important let's just go with that right doesn't have to be crazy you can see heck of a selloff okay but we are still above the 200 um spy very similar chart except the selloff has been mostly Tech and the q's has no Financial as stocks in their ETF so this is holding up a little bit better all right but that's pretty here's what I want to show I've showed this before this is a very unique time in that 50% of the cues is held by these 10 stocks okay that's a lot sexy too many so what I want to look at is individually how he doing because it's actually kind of surprising um so this is 9% of the cues okay we had a little bit of a dip we did bounce off the 200 we're still above the 100 moving average I would say this is healthy above the 100 doing great no reason to see a crash incoming ooh all right Nvidia we have dipped below this 200 set a lower high dipped back below this 200 not looking awesome now granted you cannot make a prediction from here it is a flip of a coin if everyone says we're going to crash because they're going to pull up some obscure pattern it works 50% of the time which is a coin flip right but what matters is how long how long are we below this so if if we for instance hit it and have a big down day big volume problem that is relatively predictive okay hey just get your shopping list ready as far as prices and know when you want to buy we actually you know what we actually should have that's a video yeah we should do like Microsoft Amazon we should do all these just in case um Nidia that was 7.4% okay Microsoft not having a good time 7.8% basically we are well below the 200 and are in a downward Trend fairly consistently uh we have one support here that actually di below a 38750 so not looking too hot for Microsoft okay 7.8% of the entire cues Amazon fell below the 100 once again it has respected this pretty well in the past um it'll be interesting to see what happens here as it approaches to 200 I wouldn't say this is healthy I would say this is chilling okay that's a very technical term chilling chilling like a villain uh not good Google 5.88% we had a heck of a time here we are now fairly consistently going below the 200 setting lower lows every day not good another 6% of the cues all right as you can see you see where this is going uh broadcom hopefully we can get to Nancy Pelosi's bu Buy in price uh that'd be great what is that 160 I don't know what her buying price was it was around it was around there it was uh I think it was to the Cent she bought in perfect as always um but uh you can see we have respected 200 pretty well here so it is going to be very interesting to see what happens if this hits but that's another 4% meta is very healthy killing it doing wonderful hate my life I don't have more uh 3.8% absolutely same and Costco you know I had a bunch of shares at 350 this is this is a long time ago this one when I was uh swing trading more instead of invest I still swing trade um but I did not look at it as an investment wow made a solid 350 to 400 Trade what an idiot um Tesla after to 200 yeah this is the election here this is the election bump we are now below the election bump yikes um it'll be interesting to see what happens at this 200 so you can't just go by that even though that is 50% of the cu's those whatever nine how how many stocks you just looked at 50% of the ETF multiple below the 200 and trending downward two or three are healthy two or three are risky yeah hey you remember that like that children's nursery rhyme that goes and the little one said roll over that's kind of what the whole Market looked like that' be great because I got a lot of money inside I'm just I'm just I'm just waiting um here let me move my face here so this is percent of stocks all stocks above the 200 day moving average okay you can see we are below the 50 percentile we're below where we've been in a long time other than this little blip here um but to be fair let's zoom out cuz you need some context it's actually not insane okay so this is going back four years this is where you you go on other YouTube channels who are trying to say there's there's going to be a crash which there could be I don't know I'm just let's just take in all information um it's not crazy low like it's it it's low it's not crazy low but the 200 is very specific it's a very strong strong average okay this is the 100 this is worse there is only 39.8% of stocks above the 100 okay okay but still not like uh super worrying to me at least at that point if you told me it was like 10% then I'd be like oh God so the way once again this is an an opinion that on how to interpret this but the rule is between like uh 30 and 15 or something is Mark markets down very bad this is scary and then 10 is overbought means buy once again very general rule not not a perfect science there all right this looks scary I get it let me shrink our faces I'm going to go over this yeah it looks very intimidating but this is not all stocks these are ETFs which I would consider a little bit more reliable okay so these are so 100 day moving average percent above the 100 day moving average but you have your SP 500 your Dow your New York shock exchange your NASDAQ Russell 3000 2,000 y y all these okay so we're actually you know 50 percentile pretty good 66 percentile for the Dow which as we've seen the Dow is outper they're doing pretty well as everyone else is crashing but that's because there's what is there 30 stocks yeah it's only 30 in the Dow and you know they tend to be more like Blue Chip profitable companies a little less volatile you know yeah then you have your 43 for the New York NYSC NASDAQ is at 32.9% real low that is getting scary so is the Russell 3000 so is the Russell 2000 they are both in the 30s yikes very very iffy yeah how would you interpret that especially like we've did we did a separate video about the small cap underperformance over the last know several years so Russell 2000 being so many of them below their their 200 day moving averages that was 100 but yeah I I would have thought when I was doing this I was like oh I I feel like the small cap index will be performing a little bit better right they're not actually no yeah so the theory is you have 50% of the top dogs in The Q's over half of those are not doing well and have all the small caps not doing well what does that mean to me it means get your shopping list ready I agree 100% I'm really hoping for Nidia 100 that'd be great yeah and that's but that's speaking as someone that's like 20 years away from retirement true that's a yeah that's a good point we should be sensitive to that uh sorry okay guys let us know what you think yeah catch you the next one
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