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결론: 드러켄밀러 발언 중심으로 M2 수축·채권시장 신호상 경기침체 가능성을 언급하나, 영상 자체는 개별 자산에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측을 하지 않음. 드러켄밀러 투자 철학(2015년 강연 인용): 성공 요인은 사업에 대한 열정, 훌륭한 멘토, 위험관리이며 집중투자(한 바구니에 계란을 담고 주시)를 강조함. 드러켄밀러는 현재 시점이 아닌 약 18개월 뒤를 보고 투자해야 하며, 시장을 움직이는 것은 실적보다 중앙은행과 유동성이라고 주장함. 드러켄밀러는 1999~2000년 인터넷 버블 당시 공매도 실패로 30억 달러 손실을 본 일화를 소개하며 감정적 판단의 위험을 강조함. 좋은 펀드매니저의 조건으로 열정, 약세장 대응능력, 겸손·열린 마음, 정직성을 제시함. M2 통화량(CPI 디플레이션 기준)이 -7.9%로 과거 침체 신호 수준보다 낮아졌다는 점을 제시하며, 과거 대비 전례 없는 확장 이후의 수축이라 불확실하지만 침체 가능성이 있다고 봄. 금 가격: 장기 하락추세선을 2023년 상향 돌파했고 단기 조정 후 상승 가능성을 언급, 금 생산비용 곡선(약 1,550달러 부근)이 가격 바닥 역할을 한다고 설명. 은/금 비율: 달러지수(DXY)가 하락하면 은이 금을 상회한다는 관계를 설명하며 현재 DXY 하락 추세를 언급. 인플레이션: 6% 이상 인플레는 높은 수준에 머무는 경향이 있으며 2% 복귀에는 7~22년(중간값 13년)이 걸린다고 설명. 채권시장 신호: 18개월 후 단기 금리와 현재 3개월물 수익률 비교 지표가 침체 경고를 나타낸다고 언급, 경기침체 가능성 높다고 봄. 안전마진(margin of safety) 개념을 설명하며 경기사이클과 유동성 흐름에 따른 매수 구간 개념을 제시. 에너지: 2050년까지 선진국 1차 에너지소비 -15%, 신흥국 +35% 전망 차트를 소개하나 발표자 본인은 이를 믿기 어렵다고 의문 제기. 출연자 전망: 금 사이클 고점은 2027~2028년 사이로 예상되며 현재 상승 국면 초입이라는 아날로그 분석을 인용. 발표자는 개별 종목 매수 권유 없이 플랫폼(유료 멤버십) 홍보 중심으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
hey everyone hope you're having a good day my name is Andy my channel is finding value today we're going to go through Twitter see what's going on news related see what people are talking about obviously I'll give my financial opinions uh around it and uh if you guys want to follow me you can follow me at finding uh hyphenvalue.com become a platinum member use the word discount in the coupon code and you can see what my portfolio is you can see the changes I'm making if I'm making any um I don't really sell too much I usually just accumulate and buy for the bull market that is coming but we do talk about a lot of different stocks especially during the Platinum question and answer sessions that we hold uh so let's dive in here again if you want to follow me it's at finding underscore Finance on Twitter uh we're gonna start with Stan drunken Miller he's one of the world's greatest money managers and has traded through Market cycles for more than 30 years in 2015 he gave what is now a Timeless discussion about markets and processes at the Lost tree Club here are seven takeaways from his speech so number one uh Draka tests that he's not a genius he was not in the top percentile at school instead he believes that he made his success from three things passion for business great mentorship and risk management uh it says number one had incredible passion still does for the business the second thing I would say he had great uh two great mentors that he had and the third thing was I'd say as I developed partly through dumb luck I'll get into that a very unique risk management system uh the first thing I heard when I got in the business not from a mentor was Bulls make money Bears make money the pigs get slaughtered I'm here to tell you I was a pig and I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig I think diversification and all the stuff they're teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere and I wanted to cover that because he goes he does go over that again uh here soon he says the mistake I'd say 98 of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they've got to be playing in a bunch of stuff and if you really see it put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully so coming in here he says they see something they bet it and they bet the ranch on it and that's the kind of way My Philosophy evolved which was if you see only maybe one or two times a year do you see something that really really excites you and if you look at what excites you and then you look down the road your record on those particular transactions is far superior to everything else but the mistake I'd say 98 of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they've got to be playing in a bunch of stuff and if you really see it put all your eggs in one basket and then watch the basket very carefully at least that's his opinion number three he says one his mentors taught him two crucial things never invest in the present look 18 months out the Central Bank moves the market not earnings I've talked about this a lot as well um I call that market conditions or the business cycle the business cycle is the Central Bank moves says if you invest in the present you're going to get run over says he taught me two things never ever invest in the present it doesn't matter what a company is earning what they have earned he taught me that you have to visualize the situation 18 months from now and whatever that is that's where the price will be not where it is today and too many people tend to look at the present oh this is a great company they've done this or the central the central bank is doing all the right things but you have to look to the future if you invest in the present you're going to get run over the other thing he taught me is earnings don't move the overall Market it's the Federal Reserve board and whatever I do focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity that most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures it's liquidity that moves markets the movement of liquidity guys and you have to be looking 18 months out that's exactly what I'm doing with the website is I'm looking out ahead checking what's present and seeing how things are moving and and rotating in terms of liquidity the movement of liquidity that's our ratios if you want to know it says drug learned from Soros that when you see it bet big he also humorously remarks that Soro spent 10 percent the amount of time working than him and still outperformed that's not what I learned from George Soros but I learned something incredibly valuable and that is when you see it to bet big so what I had to what I had told you was already evolving he totally cemented it I know we got a bunch of golfers in the room tonight for those who follow baseball I had a higher batting average Soros had a much bigger slugging percentage when I took over Quantum I was running Quantum and however you pronounce that he was running his personal account which is about the size of an institution back then by the way and he was focusing 90 percent of his time on philanthropy and not really working day to day in fact a lot of the time he wasn't even around and I'd say 90 of the ideas he was coming he was using came from me and it was very insightful and I'm a competitive person frankly embarrassing that in his personal account working about 10 of the time he continued to be duck duck wasn't he and Quantum while I was managing money and again it's because he was taking my ideas and he just had more guts he was betting more money with my ideas than I was so that's what he says there says when the facts change you have to be able to change your mind but you know what I've thought a lot of things when I'm managing money with great great conviction and a lot of times I'm wrong and when you're betting the ranch and the circumstances change you have to change and that's how I've always managed money he says after losing 3 billion on tech stocks during the 2000 bubble druck famously said I didn't learn anything I already knew I wasn't supposed to do that so let's go into how we lost this money it says in 1999 after Yahoo and America Online had already gone up like tenfold I got the bright idea at Soros to short internet stocks and I put 200 million in them uh in about February and by mid-march the 200 million short had lost 600 million on gotten completely beat up and was down like 15 on the year and I was very proud of the fact that I never had a down year and I thought well I'm finished so the next thing that happens is I can't remember whether I went to Silicon Valley or talked to some 22 year old Asperger um but whoever it was they convinced me about this new tech boom that was going to take place so I went and hired a couple of Gunslingers because we only knew about IBM and Hewlett-Packard I needed veritos and various sign I wanted the sixth so we hired this guy and we end up on the year we have been down 15 and we ended up like 35 on the year and the NASDAQ gone up 400 percent so like around March I could feel it coming I just had to play I couldn't help myself and three times during the same week I say don't do it don't do it anyway I pick up the phone finally I think I missed the top by an hour about six billion worth of tech stocks and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost 3 billion in that one play you asked me what I learned I didn't learn anything I already knew but I wasn't supposed to do that I was just an emotional basket case and couldn't help myself so maybe I learned not to do it again but I already knew that so yeah he got he followed in just like some other people it impacts everybody uh it says what does drug look for in money managers passion ability to manage bear markets humility and open-mindedness integrity number one passion I mentioned earlier I was passionate about the business the problem with the business if you're not passionate it is so invigorating to certain individuals they're going to work 24 7 and you're competing against them so every time you buy something one of them is selling it so you're you're the you're with one of the lazy people or one of the people that are just doing it for the money you're going to get run over by those people the other characteristic I like to look for in money manager is when I look at their record I immediately go back go to the bear markets and see how they did particularly given of the five-year Outlook I've given I want to make sure I've got a money manager who knows how to make money and manage money in turbulent times and not just in Bull markets the other thing I look for Kenny is open-mindedness and humility I know I have never interviewed a money manager who told you he'd never make a mistake and a lot of them do who didn't stink every great money manager I've ever met all they want to talk about is their mistakes they're a great humility there but then obviously Integrity because passion without Integrity leads to jail so if you want someone who is absolutely obsessed with the business and obsessed with winning they're not in it for the money they're in it for the winning you better have somebody with integrity so there's that in the end of that thread for Stanley drucken Miller so come on down it says the real M2 money stock deflated with CPI has reached minus 7.9 percent all previous readings below minus three and a half or lower have coincided with the recession none of these previous readings were preceded by the historic unprecedented M2 expansion following covet so obviously yeah we see so we see a big move lower uh in the money supply here but that's obviously on the back of a very large expansion that we've never also never seen in history so interesting times are ahead of us and I do think that we could potentially see a recession uh this is the one ounce American Silver Eagle Coin acting like a collectible bullion piece uh looks like the retail Market is again squeezed to greater than forty dollars an ounce that's a huge percent premium for American Eagles it's coming on down uh it says magnificent take off platform morphing into existence for gold I mean we just have a downtrend line that we've broken to the upside here in 2023 uh 20 60 dollars there so that's good that's looking solid for gold uh says if you're worried about inflation you do not want this to get out of the box to the upside this is this is U.S gasoline uh where we could break to the upside here we'll find out uh it says primary energy consumption expected to decline minus 15 in developed countries by 2050.
and an increase of 35 percent in emerging uh countries here and I but this is hard to believe if in my opinion it says primary energy consumption expected to decline minus 15 developed countries by 2050 and an increase in 35 percent I if we're going to continue to grow at least population wise I don't know how that's going to be possible I mean maybe things get more efficient uh and the per capita use but I I just I don't know if I believe that um but that's what it shows us at least in this um chart here it says use correct also Gold's total cost of production is up nearly 40x since 1970.
amazing how energy and the cost of goods Commodities tens tend to be the floor of the market price the economy is based on energy economics unless we believe in the energy Tooth Fairy uh but what this is this is the gold price and this is the the cost curve the cost curve of the actual cost to produce gold um the gold cost curve right now is 15.50 so it says for 50 years the price of gold has been extremely volatile due to an increase in speculation the red bars costs represent the estimated cost of production thus the gold price always bounces off these levels um yeah and this is this is the floor that keeps continuing to move up as ore grades and the cost of energy and inflation and the cost to mine it out of the ground uh goes up this is also why the miners do not make as much money as like a royalty company a royalty company gets a percentage of the total cost of what is sold the miners get the margin and if the cost is here um they make money when this moves up in the short time time frame but then they lose money as this bounce bounces back to the cost curve um this one's a simple relationship for investors to remember it says the falling USD silver outperforms gold a rising USD Gold outperforms Silver and what he's got here is the dxy the dxy is the gold and then the bars of green and red is silver to gold ratio and whenever the dxy goes up you can see the ratio Falls gold outperforms right now it looks like that we've got a falling dxy and we could see the ratio where silver outperforms gold so keep that in mind for that um it says how transitory is inflation it says an inflation jump to four percent is often temporary but when inflation crosses six percent it proceeds to level to higher levels over 80 percent of the time when inflation crosses eight percent reverting to two percent usually takes 7 to 22 years with a medium of over 13 years so we've got a lot of work to cut out cut cut out for us if we're going to revert back to two percent which usually takes on on or on median uh 13 years this is PALS curve plunges to do lows flashing U.S recession warning research from fed has argued that comparing forward rate on treasury bills 18 months from now with current yield on three month bill was most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction and right now we are way down there so it's probably a high likelihood that we are going to see a recession and an economic contraction uh I did do a video with Casper or Casper did a video of me margin of safety is one of the most important concepts for investors to understand the term was popularized by Ben Graham and is often used by top investors such as papri and Buffett so margin of safety is basically you've got the intrinsic value of the company increasing over time they have a margin of safety and this is the cycle that they're buying it in the buy Zone based off of the business cycle and the liquidity flows in the market that Stanley Drucker Miller was talking about uh here's a couple of quotes he says I want a company that's simple they don't have to make seven brilliant decisions every six months to keep going I says if you're not aggressive you're not going to make money and if you're not defensive you're not going to keep money Ray dalio here's the gold chart uh we've broken out of the top here and we'll probably consolidate for a little bit on top before moving higher so that's cool uh this one here says here is how the analog overlay of the current advancing phase for gold prices looking versus its advancing phase in the 1970s the timing of the Ultimate Cycle high is expected between 2027 and 2028 which is supported by other analysis and that's could be the cycle High we've got a long way to move higher in terms of multiples it says an ability to detach yourself from the crowd I don't know I don't know to what extent um that's innate or to what extent that's learned but that's a quality you need is to separate and detach yourself from the crowd and that's what we've got for today guys so hopefully you guys enjoy the clip uh definitely if you need some help uh check out the the website or join the channel here so click subscribe give me a thumb up for the content and we'll catch you guys later this is finding value
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