저자: Andy · 외국인
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결론: 원유(오일) 가격의 중·장기 상승을 강하게 전망하며, 중기적으로 인플레이션과 공급 부족이 심화된다는 입장이다. 피터 린치 투자 원칙 20개 소개: 기업 재무 이해, 장기 보유, 과도한 분산 지양, 현금 보유, 작은 우량주 발굴 등을 강조하며 6개월 단위 단기 매매는 사실상 타이밍 투자로 손실 위험이 크다고 주장. 경기침체 지표: 필라델피아 연준 설문에서 향후 4분기 경기침체 확률 43.5%로 역사적으로 높은 수준이라 언급. 다만 침체 후 신용 이벤트가 실제 붕괴로 이어지기까지 수년이 걸릴 수 있다고 봄. 광산·원자재 인플레이션: 미국 내 광산 건설·운영 비용이 역대 최고 수준이며, 알루미늄·아연 등 원자재 부족과 디젤 등 에너지 비용 상승으로 인플레이션이 재가속될 것으로 봄. 2023년 전년비 기저효과로 일시 둔화 가능성 언급. 원유 전망: Josh Young 인용, 유가 200달러 이상 가능성에 대비해야 한다고 주장. 공급 측 문제와 중국 재개방에 따른 수요 회복이 맞물려 공급 부족(하루 400~500만 배럴 적자 가능성) 우려. 전략비축유 방출은 일시적 완충에 불과하다고 봄. 통화 증발 확대로 유가 상승 환경이 조성된다고 주장. 시장 심리: 대다수 투자자가 약세 전망을 보이는 상황은 과거 2008~2009년 저점 때와 유사하다며 매수 기회일 수 있다는 관점 제시. 중국 재개방 해석: 재개방은 디플레이션이 아니라 원자재·에너지를 소비하면서 재고 부족이 드러나 인플레이션 요인이 된다고 해석. 중국 정부의 재정적자 확대 가능성도 언급. 러시아·기타 전망: 메드베데프 전 대통령 인용, 유가 150달러 전망 및 영국의 EU 재가입, 유로 해체 등 극단적 예측을 소개하나 신뢰도는 제한적으로 제시. 리스크: 대규모 원유·우라늄 과열(블로오프 톱) 가능성, 수요 파괴로 인한 가격 억제 가능성 인정. 단기 방향은 확신할 수 없다고 명시. 출연자 개인 운영 웹사이트 유료 회원제 종목 추천 홍보 및 과거 수익률 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone my name is Andy my channel is finding value today we're going to go over Twitter look and see what's going on there I don't have too much else to really say with the overall markets being shut down Monday but um we'll go over some information we'll go over some um things that Peter Lynch a famous investor uh go through some some of his stuff and I'll give you my financial opinion so let's let's Dive Right In uh and again if you want to follow me it's at finding underscore Finance so let's start with Peter Lynch says Peter Lynch compounded his money at 29.2 percent between 77 and 1990.
this article with his 20 golden rules was the most popular article of 2022 so let's take a look at the most popular article for Peter Lynch uh here's 20 golden investment rules from one of the best investors in the world so rule number one know what you own you have to know what you own and why you own it rule number two never invest in companies without understanding its finances the biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets only invest in good companies and your return will increase dramatically I talk about this on the website a lot about being cash flow positive hitting inflection points um going after profitable companies with infrastructure in place and and those basically we're understanding what the finances could be if the commodity price has changed a rule number three everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks uh if you sell stocks in a panic the stock market is not for you bear market and crashes are great investment opportunities that's where you can gain all your money uh rule number four make use of your Edge your Investor's Edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts it's something you already have stock information can be found everywhere on your work when you go shopping make use of it basically what you see in the real world and I I've actually applied this one quite a bit over my investing years um you know Chipotle Visa Mastercard uh United Health Group a lot of those companies that I invested in during the right time frame I've made a lot of money on a rule number five amateur investors have big advantages compared to professionals the stock market is dominated by a herd of professional investors when you ignore them and think rational you have a big Advantage compared to professionals uh rule number six focus on the long term there's no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of a stock over a short period of a few years however in the long term stock prices will always follow the underlying fundamentals of the company if the company does well you will also do well as an investor uh long shots always miss the mark for rule number seven don't invest in Hypes or the next big thing instead invest in Quality Companies with a healthy balance sheet high profitability and good Capital allocation rule number eight don't over diversify owning stocks like having children they'll get involved with more than you can handle you should you should be able to analyze and follow up on every stock you have in the portfolio when you know what you're doing and made your homework you'll be able to take a good investment decision when they matter most rule number nine have some cash on the sideline if you can find attractive companies put your money in the bank until you discover some so basically if you've got money put it in something that's a good opportunity at that time um but if you can't find an opportunity then just hold cash it's always a good idea to have some cash on the sidelines this allows you to invest heavily when Mr Market has become too pessimistic rule 10 roi-c is key you want to invest in companies with a good Capital allocation the return on invested capital is one of the most important metrics for Quality investors the higher the better so return on invested capital rule number 11 avoid hot stocks great companies in cold non-growth Industries are consistent big winners for Quality investors the margin of safety Lays in the competitive advantage of the company investing great companies with strong track records rule 12 invest only invest in profitable companies when you can find a small cap quality company which is a market leader in a niche you have found a potential multi-bagger Rule 13 let your winners run if you invest a dollar in a stock all you can lose is a dollar but you can stand to gain 10 or even fifty dollars over time if you're patient you need to find a few good stocks to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile that's the risk reward rule 14 small is beautiful in every industry and every region the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before professionals have discovered them do you notice something very interesting at your work or in a shopping mall and then basically invest in those types of companies rule 15 stock market declines are opportunities if you're prepared Corrections can hurt you Corrections are great opportunities to pick up Bargains it says Corrections can't hurt you if you're prepared and they go through the the cycle um that I go over a lot rule 16 there's always something to worry about there'll always be uncertainty in the economy and on the stock market sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate not because the sky is falling time in the market is way more important than timing the market rule 17 don't look at macro economic factors nobody can predict interest rates the future direction of the economy or the movement of foreign currencies dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested rule 18 there's always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market if you study 10 companies you'll find one for which the story is better than expected if you study 50 you'll find five the best thing you that can happen to you is buying a stock that goes up 100 times your money rule 19 do your homework if you speculate in stocks you have the same chance of success as playing a poker game without looking at the cards the stock market rewards people who do their homework in rule 20 time is on your side if you own stocks of great companies depends on your side if you if you buy quality businesses when the earnings of a stock goes up 10x the stock price will follow so that's his 20 rules golden 20 rules for Peter Lynch and he's done very very well one of the best investors um in the markets so keep those things in mind when you're looking for companies uh here's one it says more people expect a recession than any other point in his in recent history this charts from Jim Bianco confirms our feelings and here's 43.5 percent is the probability of a recession in the next four quarters compiled by our quarterly survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve I'd like to I'm curious to see if it actually transpires uh in 1999 we had 27.5 percent and the recession came later 89 we had 78 a couple years later so I think that's probably early on some of the calls some are pretty much nuts on but um yeah that's what we've had the proper labor sessions some of the highest predicted highest percent prediction uh here's Ronnie it says inflation hits miners it's never been more expensive to build or operate a mine in the United States so it's never been more expensive and I talked about this quite a bit how the mining companies and how to build a mine I think that's going to get much much worse in time when we start to see shortages of uh minerals ones that are found in the trucks that these guys operate in the minerals that are used to build all of these mines and I'm talking basic stuff like aluminum um zinc all those other things I think the costs are going to continue to rise and we could come into a period where there's a lull um we'll call it this next year where the the base effect comes we had some pretty high numbers in 2021 or 2022 and I think they'll slow down for 2023 just because of the year-over-year base effect but I think it'll ramp up again at some point in the future and I think oil is going to be one of the leading contributors due to the shortages of oil and we're going to talk about that here as well but I do think inflation with the price of oil going up in these mines I mean obviously we're seeing these gigantic trucks that eat through diesel quite rapidly I think that we're going to see yep more inflation so here's Josh Young it says if you haven't stress tested your portfolio for oil prices north of 200 you're going to suffer dearly when that should come to pass copies think in 2023 is going to be a pivotal year for the price of oil I think Josh Young thinks that I think that I think that we're going to see supply side problems in oil and demand remain pretty resilient with China reopening so what does your portfolio look like at 200 oil I am positioning for higher oil prices um I don't know if we'll hit 200 next year or not uh maybe we even hit higher they were talking about 300 oil coming up and and really what they're saying is you know if we lose if we have a swing uh where we go and run a deficit of four or five million barrels where's that oil going to come from in the next few years and not too many people know where it's necessarily going to come from in that type of quantity so we could run a deficit for a while the Strategic petroleum Reserve releases yeah it it basically tied us over for a period of time but that time will pass it will it will go behind us and we're going to get into a a pretty tight situation in oil I think and I'm not the only one who thinks that there's a a large divide on people who believe that oil is going to go much higher versus others that think demand destruction is going to contain it I don't I mean I'll tell you honestly I don't know which one will necessarily win in the short short term but in the midterm and long term oil is going to crush the demand side problem because they're going to have to print money to save their bond markets they're going to have to print money to save the system so to speak and there just isn't the oil there for that money to be absorbed so what you're going to see is you're going to see money being created at a faster Pace than GDP and that's the type of environment that oil goes up in uh Marco popik slides one uh whatever tactical everyone is bearish so he says everyone and their chocolate Labrador is currently bearish that is not reason enough to be bullish to be sure but it does confirm our anecdotal sense from travel that the consensus is Mega bearish and we are way down here in terms of how bearish people are and the negative area for institutional peers and Retail investors are Uber bearish the retail guys are generally wrong though so they they usually are bearish after they need to be bearish and we could be going into basically a turning point at some point uh they were Ultra bearish in in 0809 that's exactly when you should have been buying and they're bearish again today so I mean maybe it's the time we should be buying um here is the decline of long-term investing I know we went and we talked about Peter Lynch and he Peter Lynch made his money by basically sticking it out over a long period of time and Warren Buffett does the same thing it says if you aren't willing to own a stock for 10 years don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes and here we are the decline of long-term investing in the holding period over these decades seven years four years eight years for 1960s and then a rapid decline five years two years to 1.3 1.1 and now six months six months is nothing I mean that you're basically if you're holding a stock for six months you basically are just trying to time the market at best and most these people that try to time the market they just lose money so I guess people just continually lose money now I've been in a lot of positions since 2020.
and I'm still holding on I don't see any reason to necessarily sell and I'll probably be in this eight year camp or something like that maybe even longer but nobody wants to hold stocks and it's it's hard it it's hard because basically you're just rolling the dice if you're going to invest for only six months or less I mean that you you're just doing short-term technical analysis and that that's kind of the best thing that you could do if you're going to hold it for that period of time and most those investors they just profusely lose money uh so here it says quite wrong the transitory supply chain Bros will push this linear View and get it wrong against Trend most of the way up and their view is when China demand opens so does China Supply net China opening is more deflationary than inflationary wrong wrong wrong I totally agree and I agree with Paulo macro when they open up China is more or less just a way of converting Commodities and energy into usable products that's it and if you're short on Commodities and you're short on energy well there's your problem it's inflationary not deflationary it would only be deflationary if you had copious amounts of Commodities available but that's the problem we don't we are going to be short Commodities so when they open up they're going to try to convert energy and commodities into products which we don't have those Commodities the inventory is low uh it says the majority of fintuit is in absolute denial about the first half Commodities are about to have and the ton of global inflation China is about to induce uh and that that deals with low inventories of Commodities China reopening and then converting those Commodities to usable products using energy so that's that's where there's a large divide um you know the people I'm in the camp with cuppy and Paulo macro and those guys thinking that when China reopens they're just gonna try to consume things that don't exist which is going to increase prices and and that's kind of where I'm at this one is the stemi train is finally back China take Extraordinary Measures to simulate growth the government May raise its budget deficit to more than three percent of gross domestic product now here's Tavi I hate to say but we haven't seen anything yet prior to the GFC the number of bankruptcies was Rising exponentially today it remains at historical low levels the tightening of financial conditions worldwide is setting the stage for significant credit events ahead but here's the problem so everybody thinks that we get this crash immediately when this starts to go up and I do think this will go up I mean I I agree with that yeah let me let me hit it right here but we didn't have the crash till 2008 which is over here it takes time guys it takes time it may take a couple of years before these bankruptcies really start to hurt things so I know everybody thinks that this financial crash is just going to happen because the the numbers start to turn but they turn and it may take a couple years that's where I differ than than a lot of other people we could have a gigantic blow off top in uranium and oil before a big recession comes now I'm not making that prediction I'm just saying I'm stating that it's possible and that this is going to have to deteriorate quite dramatically before that necessarily happens uh here's a rush as a you know Dimitri Medvedev Russia has an official oil price target of 150 a barrel um oil prices will rise to 150 and gas prices will top five dollars per thousand cubic meters the UK will rejoin the EU the EU will collapse after the UK's return Europe will drop out of use as the former EU currency that is I guess predictions for 2023 here's cuppy yeah he's talking to John Paul me he says trust me John I'm expecting it four to five million is my Baseline deficit and then bad stuff often happens on the supply side when they miss then the real fireworks happen oil is the only thing that matters in 2023 Jay Powell is just a shy sideshow oil oil that's what matters in the deficit that it's going to run and and Jerome Powell he's just saying that's a sideshow he doesn't matter what he does because of the large deficit that could potentially be there he says in 100 million barrels per day Market that appears to have limited spare capacity this could be a problem we didn't even talk about conclusion of spr or Russian supply drop we could be short four to five million barrels at some point next year Spike well above a hundred no one is expecting it that's right so I I'm expecting it that's kind of what I'm thinking uh top picks for uh Eric Nuttall um to give Andy's website a try this guy's up 151 percent uh 75 and 60 depending on your time frame we have I have a lot of really good picks on the website just let you know and then China reopening Beijing congestion index is way up bullish oil uh with this reopening and it's a dramatic increase over just a week ago lots more um oil demand over in China so that's what I've got for today guys um I'm a big bowling oil you know don't forget the golden rules of Peter Lynch um I'm a long-term holder compared to I guess everyone else everyone wants to get in and get out and not really make that much money I'm looking for multi-backgers guys I'm I I buy this stuff I hold on I'm looking for five times ten times my money uh or more and they're they're still companies out there I've got some that were actually in in the finding hypevalue.com um website the platinum membership we we own some of them and we're riding it we're up hundreds of percents since I started the the website um we will be doing some bumping and grinding sometimes because we're usually getting stuff off resistance bumping hitting hit and then when it breaks through that resistance that's when it runs uh we've got a couple of setups right now where we're starting to run after that resistance so a lot of fun times um if you guys like the the content give me a thumbs up subscribe to the channel if you haven't and we'll catch you next time this is finding value
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