저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거 발언을 인용하며 인플레이션과 통화 증발이 장기 수익률 부진과 금융시장 위기를 부를 수 있다고 주장한다. 결론: 영상은 미국이 통화를 과도하게 찍어내 장기간 수익률이 나지 않는 위험이 있다고 경고한다. [인플레이션 정의] 인플레이션은 일정 기간(보통 1년) 재화·서비스 가격이 오르는 정도이며, 화폐 가치 하락으로도 설명된다. [통화 증발 및 물가 근거] 2020년 2월 이후 연준이 4.72조 달러를 공급했다고 주장한다. 2022년 4월 미국 연간 인플레이션율은 8.3%로 제시되며, 연 2% 목표를 크게 웃돈다. [멍거 발언 및 일본 사례] 멍거는 미국이 '꽤 미친 짓'을 했고 일본식 장기 침체인지 더 나쁜지 모른다고 말한 것으로 소개된다. 일본은 1990년대 이후 장기 침체를 겪었으나 사회는 안정적이었다고 평가한다. [1970년대 비교 및 연준 대응] 1970년대 인플레이션은 약 15%였고 심각한 경기침체를 낳았다. 볼커는 금리를 20%까지 올려 인플레이션을 잡았다. [출연자 전망 및 투자 조언] 현금 보유가 어렵고 주식시장 폭락 가능성이 높다고 본다. 멍거식 접근은 '덜 나쁜 선택'을 고르는 것이며, 많은 종목보다 좋은 소수 자산이 낫다고 조언한다. [리스크] 금융당국이 성급히 대응하면 위기 가능성이 커진다고 경고한다. [종목별 언급] 개별 종목·지수 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
Charlie Munger, who is the vice chair of Brookshire Hathaway and has worked with Warren Buffett for a long time, said that inflation is a very bad thing. He said that after a nuclear war, rising prices are the second biggest threat. One of the most commonly used economic terms is "inflation." In the past, it has led to long periods of instability in many countries.
Central bankers often want to be known as "inflation hawks." Politicians have promised to fight inflation when they ran for office, only to lose power when they didn't do it. In 1974, when Gerald Ford was president of the United States, inflation was called the number one enemy of the people. But what is inflation, and why does it matter so much?
Hello everyone, welcome to Success Wisdom. In this video, we're going to talk about No Returns For Decades - Charlie Munger's Stock Market Warning. If you are new to this channel, do like and subscribe to the channel. Inflation is basically the rate at which prices have been going up over time. People often think of it as a broad measure that includes the overall rise in prices or the improvement in living standards in a country.
However, it can also be measured in a more specific way, such as the rise in prices for certain goods or services, like haircuts. No matter what the situation is, inflation is a measure of how much a set of goods or services has become more expensive over a certain amount of time, usually a year. But that's only half of what inflation is.
The value of your money going down is another way to describe inflation. The problem is that there is a high demand for goods and services, but the supply is low because of problems in the supply chain. The result is that prices go up while the Federal Reserve has been printing more money to add to the money supply.
In fact, since February 2020, the Fed has "printed" 4.72 trillion dollars. Since then, the dollar has become more common and there are more goods than people want. There has been a lot of inflation. The U.S. had an annual inflation rate of 8.3% in April 2022, according to data on inflation. On average, inflation is thought to be 2% per year.
So it's clear that we've gone past that ceiling, and it's getting to the point where the Fed will have to step in and raise interest rates to stop the economy and bring down inflation. So far, that is the story. With this information in mind, let's try to listen to the no returns for decades - Charlie Munger's stock market warning.
Charlie's recent interview is a very important event. The stock market was shaken up by what he said. Charlie Munger said, "The US has done something pretty crazy, and we don't know yet how bad the problems will be, whether they'll be like Japan or much worse." I think we are aware that we are getting close to big trouble.
It's a lot to take in when you read those three sentences. Charlie is talking about the fact that since February 2020, the United States has made more than 40 percent of all U.S. dollars ever made. This is called "money printing." This is the act of making money out of nothing, which leads to inflation in the long run.
You've probably heard, and I've already said, that inflation is at 8.3 percent, which is close to a 40-year high. In reality, inflation is much higher than 8.3 percent, but that number is easy to change by changing what a "basket of regular goods" includes. Obviously, it also makes sense for the inflation rate to be low so that no one throws bananas at institutions run by white men over 70 years of age.
We pay the inflation tax every time we fill up our gas tanks or go to the grocery store. When the tax is small, we don't mind, but when it's an extra 7–15%, it makes the hairs on our backs stand up. They have kept inflation and how the financial markets work quiet by using complexity in the finance industry, but only until Twitter and Reddit started translating the language of the men in suits.
Keep in mind that inflation makes money worth less, so you can buy less. The strange Japanese thing Charlie talks about Japan to show what can happen when governments and central banks print too much money without thinking. In the 1990s, Japan ran out of good luck. But in the 1960s and 1970s, it got it back.
The government and the central bank both tried to help solve the problem. They buy back their own debt and a lot of other common stocks as well. It was a time when interest rates went up a lot and they made a lot of money out of thin air. It led to a time when the economy didn't grow at all, and the government owned a lot of what should have been free markets.
Japan has never fully recovered from this economic disaster. Here's where everyone goes wrong. Japan did make a mistake, but it's still a beautiful place. No one will be fighting in the streets. Businesses don't cause any trouble. People are happy and don't kill each other because guns are illegal, which is not the case in the US.
Even though so much free money was given to Japan, bad things did not happen. Because of this, you shouldn't believe most of the anger-inducing claims that the financial markets are going to fail. History shows that countries can make stupid choices and that life can still go on. Charlie is sure that we don't know what these latest financial tricks will do to the United States.
When the U.S. made trillions of dollars out of nothing, it changed the course of history for good. Japan taught us that this experiment can go on for many years. Now, the big question is whether or not Americans will stand up against money inequality or just keep quiet like the good people of Japan.
Before we continue discussing no returns for decades - Charlie Munger's stock market warning. If you like this video, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel. The next thing we'll talk about is putting a bucket of cold water on your head, so don't wipe your face just yet. In the 1970s, the rate of inflation was 15%.
This caused a horrible recession that hurt a lot of people. Charlie thinks this won't happen again because politicians have a lot more control over financial markets now than they did in the 1970s. They'll probably stop another recession like the one in the 1970s, but wait, printing money is risky. We will either step on a landmine or not.
Charlie went on to say that the new problems in Japan are probably not the same as the old ones. Then he says something surprising: we're closer to terrible trouble than we've ever been before. Trouble might not happen for a long time, so problems with the supply chain should go away and prices should go down.
It is in the best interest of the Federal Reserve not to overreact and raise rates too quickly, like Japan did. If the next inflation numbers are higher than 8.3%, the Fed could act like they did in 2020 and raise interest rates quickly. In the 1970s, Paul Volcker, who was in charge of the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates to 20% to slow inflation.
A lot of people were angry about the move. Even though the terrible recession of the 1970s is over, he says no returns for decades - charlie munger's stock market warning You might rather have a Vulcan-style recession from the 1970s than the one you're going to get. Charlie says that things might be worse now than they were in the 1970s.
When the United States sneezes, every other country catches a cold, and most countries have printed way too much money and lowered their interest rates to zero, so when interest rates go up, Americans will be very angry. What does this mean for you in a big way? Even if you don't invest your money, you should always keep an eye on the 8.3 percent inflation rate in the world economy.
It can be hard to stay in cash. It is very likely that the stock market will crash. Even old money experts like Charlie are coming out and saying that this can't go on. Charlie's mental model for situations like these is to choose the least bad option. He has four stocks and a few properties in his portfolio.
He says that most people have way too many different kinds of investments when all they really need are good ones. Our time in history is hard to understand. No one knows what is going to happen next. Even though Japan shows that nothing bad could happen, if the people in charge of the financial markets are too quick to pull the trigger, that makes trouble more likely.
People with a lot of credibility are talking about how money can be made out of thin air. This is a sign of the times. We've reached the end of another video and thank you for watching. I hope you have learned the no returns for decades - charlie munger's stock market warning. If you like this video, do give us a like, subscribe to the channel and comment down below. Thank you and good bye.
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